Demographic transition model Flashcards
When was it first formulated
1945 by Notestein
Definition
Shows population change over time through showing how birth and death rates affect the total population of a country
Lowering the death rate
took from 1750 - 1930 for the death rate to fall its fullest extent in UK.
Reasons:
- – Sanitary reform e.g. John Snow, Cholera/ Great Stink 1858
- – Advances in medication (e.g. Penicillin 1930)
- – Improved economy
Why are death rates still so high in LICs
- – Lack of healthcare e.g. AIDS Subsaharan Africa
- – Warfare/ Civil unrest
- – Poverty –> Amartya Sen “theres enough food but not enough access to it. 60% OF CHILD MORTALITY LINKED TO POVERTY
- – Natural environment e.g. Chronic: mosquitoes. Acute: Volcano
Why is the DTM good?
- describes the differences between HIC and LIC countries easily and quickly
- identifies that there is a link between economic development and population change within a country
- serves as a teaching tool
WHy is the DTM bad?
Some knowledge was imported e.g. vaccines
Model predicts all will go through 4 stages: many are stuck in stage 3 and could go back to 2
Fertility decline is accelerated by imported medical knowledge
descriptive not predictive
generalisation
no explanation as to why this pattern occurs
doesnt tell you how many people its talking about
DOESN’T TAKE MIGRATION INTO ACCOUNT
not all countries follow this model e.g. Niger
Eurocentric
Fact that they had to add a stage shows not that reliable
Thailand as a country that did not progress through the DTM like a Europena country might do
- Fertility rate in 1969 was 6.5
1970 - family planning programme –> 79% contraceptive by 1999 + public info
TFR at 1.7 with 0.8% growth
Factors influencing high dependency ratios
immigration of dependents
increasing life expectancy
falling death rates
emmigration of economically active
different models of dtm
Czech demographer Pavlik recognised two alternative types
look at flashcards
