Demo & Particip - Electoral Process

Question 1

The electoral process

Steps

Answer 1

• Announcement/Invisible Primary - 12-18 months before election. Interparty campaign
• Primaries and Caucuses - State level between Feb and Jun - contest between party candidates
• Party Convention - July, confirm party nominees and party platform. Frontloading means the winner is known before the event
• The campaign - July to Nov candidates campaign for presidency
• Election day - Nominating electors to the electoral college
• Electoral college -
• Inauguration - 20th January officially takes office

Question 2

The electoral college- How the EC works

Answer 2

How the EC works

• Each state is given a number of electors based on number of reps+senators
• In most states the party with the most votes gets all ECVs
• 270 Votes must be achieved
• Rogue voters illegal in 30 of 50 states. 7 of them in 2016
• Pres can win without popular vote. Trump 2016 won 46%, 30 states, Hilary 48%, 20 states

Question 3

Incumbency

Advantages of Incumbency 7

Answer 3

Name recognition - Known to voters, good and bad, easy to get media attention
Single candidate - No competition from own party, unlike opposition that weakens candidates
Risk aversion - US is generally resistant to change, party polarisation means change unlikely
Presumned success - Of the last 11 elections, 8 of them won reelection
Campaign experience - better practised with the campaign process
Government control - Can use power to sway voters - Obama DACA 2012 Hispanic voters
Fundraising - Not as important as opposition and easier to do as single party candidate

Question 4

Obama incumbency case study

Answer 4

• Against romney, polling was especially close with only a 5 point difference in most cases
• Romney spent more, and raised more initially
• Obama was said to have performed poorly in first tv debates

Question 5

Advantages/Disadvantages of Invisible Primaries

Answer 5

• Wide range of people can enter, helps new candidates gain exposure (Peter Buttigieig CCN LGBT Interview)
• Highlights stamina or lack of (Paul Tsongan recovering from cancer dropped out)
  However,
• Money has too much sway at this stage. Some wait to donate to most likely to win, this helps appear as such
• Length causes some to drop out financially - Kamala Harris Presidential place

Question 6

Advantages/Disadvantages - Primaries/Caucuses

Answer 6

Allows the public to voice their opinion and concerns to party leaders - 35M Democrats 2008
Encourages participation
However,
Low turnout overall - 17% 2012
Front-loading - Iowa, McCain selected before primaries even finished 2008
Raiding - Vote for the weaker candidate of opposing party - Operation Chaos 2008 Against Hilary

Question 7

Advantages/Disadvantages - Campaign Finance

Answer 7

2010 Cit Uni v FEC Gave corps 1st, unions can donate, promotes free speech
Finance is not guaranteed success (Trump 950M, Hilary 1.4B)
However,
2010 Cit Uni v FEC overturned BCRA Restrictions and created super PACs (60 Day ads)
Corporations Have the 1st (68% of PAC Dono from 1%), not all union members may support
Matching funds no longer accepted as more can be raised without - Mccain got 85M where obama got 750M

Question 8

Advantages/Disadvantages - Electoral College

Answer 8

Promotes federalism/state rights (counters the issues of varying population campaign focus)
Usually decided popular vote winner (18 of 25)
However,
Popular vote does loose - Trump won with 46% of electorate
Undemocratic as safe seats are made, wasted votes
Swing states have too much focus (Michigan has 51x more influence than utah, Florida visited 35 times)

Question 9

Advantages/Disadvantages - National convention

Answer 9

Promotes political involvement, rally voters
Media circus, performances, scripted talks
However,
Formal functions fail
Candidate is not selected there but much earlier - Biden presumptive 4 months prior
Party platform is not decide there