Decision Making and Problem-Solving Flashcards
What are mental models?
Mental representations of possible outcomes of a problem scenario
- Plays a key role in reasoning
Cant think of every solution though
- Take up working memory capacity
- Visualizing mentally
Simulation, of what has happened or predicts the future
What is the constructive nature of memory?
- We reconstruct memories based on stored info
- Constructs mental models
What is system 1?
- Shared between humans and animals, early evolution
- Fast, parallel, automatic, unconscious, intuitive
- Set of sub-system
What is system 2?
- Uniquely human
- Slow, sequential, conscious and deliberate
- Makes use of working memory
- Permits abstract thinking
Wason Selection Task - Abstract version
Each card has a letter on one side, a number on the other. Which cards need to be turned over to find out whether the statement is true or false?
- Abstract tasks are harder for people
Influence by system 1
- Search for positive evidence - confirmation bias
- Perceptually match cards, relies on first impressions - matching bias
Wason Selection Task - Concrete version
A scenario; Each card has the beverage on one side, the age on the other. Which cards need to be turned over to discover under-age drinker breaking the rule?
- Easier to do the right switches
Can give a false sense of right , previous knowledge can impede logical reasoning
Conditional reasoning
If P, then Q
- Consists of antecedent and consequence
- Modus Ponens: Affirms the antecedent
- Modus Tollens: Denies the consequents
Its simple but not intuitive
- Connection to hypothesis testing
Prove the null-hypothesis(“if”- part) wrong
Valid arguments
Only modus ponens and tollens can lead to a true conclusion according to the rules of logic
Syllogistic Reasoning
A combination of two premises and one conclusions
- Categorical syllogism
- Linear syllogism
- Valid conclusions follow the premises
- Easy to get influenced by whats believable or not
Logic isnt based on reality
What does “some” mean in syllogistic reasoning?
At least one and possibly all
- Helpful to draw to see the connections
- Should only be one alternative
What can influence acceptance of conclusions?
- Logical reasoning - System 2
- Prior beliefs, prior knowledge, perceptual matching - System 1
Belief bias
Tendency to confirm prior beliefs, especially with logically invalid conclusions
- Interference
- Has to sometimes ignore the meaning of the text
What is inductive reasoning?
- Search for generalizations based on individual observations
- We can never confirm a hypothesis on the basis of observation and induction
One discrepant observation results in rejection of the hypothesis - Often search for falsification to reject the null-hypothesis
Judgement
Determine likelihood of an event or outcome based on incomplete data
Decision
Select from different options
- Yes or No
Semantic congruity effect
Mental comparison
Reaction time is faster or judgement are faster when the basis of judgment is congruent or similar to the stimuli being compared
The time to select the shorter of two relatively short lines is faster than the time to select the longer one
Distance Effect
The greater the distance between the two stimuli in comparison, the faster the decision that they differ
- Works for symbolic values as well
Comparison between two mental symbols
- The just noticeable difference
Snarc Effect
Faster responses with left hand to the smallest numbers in the series
Faster responses with right hand to the larger numbers in the series
- Not only numbers
- Cultural differences
How can Snarc Effect be explained?
- We represent numbers on a mental number line from left to right
How we save info in our memory - We place incoming items from left to right in working memory, linked with visuo-spatial sketchpad (its involved)
Same tendencies in blind people as well
Algorithm
- Specific formula or method
- Systematic
Handshakes