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PSY270 > Decision Making > Flashcards

Decision Making Flashcards

1
Q

What is reasoning?

A

involves coming to a conclusion based on given premises which we assume to be true

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2
Q

What is decision-making?

A

involves making a judgment among a set of options, choosing a specific course of behavioral actions from among many possibilities

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3
Q

What is a prerequisite to decision making?

A

Reasoning

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4
Q

What is rationalism?

A

the belief in a priori truths, where knowledge is gained through deduction

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5
Q

What is empiricism?

A

the belief in a posteriori truths, where knowledge is gained through induction

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6
Q

Describe the two broad approaches to reasoning.

A
  1. Deductive reasoning: Applying known truths to draw certain conclusions.
  2. Inductive reasoning: Generalizing from observations to make informed guesses.
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7
Q

Give an example of deductive reasoning.

A

Premise 1: All mammals are animals.
Premise 2: A dog is a mammal.
Conclusion: Therefore, a dog is an animal.

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8
Q

Give an example of inductive reasoning.

A

Observation: All the swans I have seen are white.
Conclusion: Therefore, all swans are probably white.

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9
Q

What is a syllogism?

A

a form of reasoning where a conclusion is drawn from two premises. It typically consists of three statements: two premises and one conclusion.

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10
Q

What are categorical syllogisms?

A

a type of deductive reasoning that uses quantifiers such as “all,” “some,” or “none” to make statements about categories

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11
Q

How do quantifiers affect the difficulty of syllogisms?

A

generally easier to solve

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12
Q

What does it mean when a syllogism is indeterminate?

A

the premises do not provide enough information to draw a logical conclusion

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13
Q

What role do mental models play in solving syllogisms?

A
  • used to represent the information in syllogisms and explore all possible outcomes
  • they help in visualizing the relationships described in the premises
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14
Q

Why might syllogisms with negations be harder to solve?

A

can introduce complexity and ambiguity, making it more challenging to determine the relationships between the premises and the conclusion

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15
Q

What cognitive process is used to solve syllogisms?

A

Reasoning using mental models, which requires the construction of alternative models

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16
Q

What limitations affect the mental models used in deductive reasoning?

A

same types of things that limit other cognitive tasks
- working memory
- prior knowledge
- visual imagery

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17
Q

What are the two parts of a conditional statement?

A
  • the antecedent (the “if” part)
  • the consequent (the “then” part).
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18
Q

What is the structure of a conditional reasoning task?

A

If P, then Q. P. Therefore, Q.

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19
Q

What are the actions that can be performed in a conditional reasoning task?

A
  • affirm part of the statement (say it’s true)
  • Deny part of the statement (say it’s false)
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20
Q

What is affirming the antecedent?

A
  • The “if…” part of the sentence is true
  • this is a cat; therefore it is an animal
  • Valid
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21
Q

What is affirming the consequent?

A
  • The “then…” part of the sentence is true
  • This is an animal; therefore it is a cat
  • invalid
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22
Q

What is denying the antecedent?

A
  • the “if…” part of the sentence is false
  • This is not a cat; therefore it is not an animal
  • invalid
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23
Q

What is denying the consequent?

A
  • The “then…” part of the sentence is false
  • this is not an animal; therefore it is not a cat
  • valid
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24
Q

In the Wason Selection Task, what is the rule being tested with the cards E, J, 6, and 7?

A

“If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.”

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25
Q

Which cards should you turn over to test the rule in the Wason Selection Task?

A

You should turn over the E card (to check if it has an even number) and the 7 card (to check if it has a vowel).

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26
Q

What is confirmation bias in the context of reasoning?

A

tendency to seek out information that supports a hypothesis or belief, rather than looking for information that could disprove it

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27
Q

How did Griggs and Cox (1982) modify Wason’s original task?

A

used a real-life scenario involving a police officer checking for underage drinking, where cards represented ages and drinks, which led to better performance in identifying the correct cards to turn over

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28
Q

What is the difference in performance when people test abstract rules versus concrete examples in reasoning tasks?

A

People tend to perform better when testing concrete, real-world examples compared to abstract rules, as they can relate to familiar situations and patterns

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29
Q

What is a pragmatic reasoning schema, and how does it relate to the Wason Selection task?

A

a mental framework that helps individuals understand and apply rules in practical situations, making reasoning tasks easier by reducing cognitive load

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30
Q

What is the belief-bias effect?

A

a cognitive bias where people judge the validity of an argument based on the believability of its conclusion rather than the logical structure of the argument itself

31
Q

Provide an example of the belief-bias effect.

A

“If my finger is cut, then it bleeds. My finger is bleeding. Therefore, my finger is cut.” This conclusion is logically invalid (affirming the consequent), but the belief-bias effect may lead people to mistakenly conclude that it is valid because the premises seem believable

32
Q

Can we reach logically certain conclusions through inductive reasoning?

A

No, reaching a logically certain conclusion is impossible with inductive reasoning. Conclusions drawn are based on past observations and are not guaranteed to be true in the future.

33
Q

What are the limitations of inductive reasoning?

A

the inability to prove conclusions true, as they are based on observations that may not hold in every instance. There is no logical reason the observed patterns will continue.

34
Q

How do we use hypothesis testing in inductive reasoning?

A

to try to falsify our theories

35
Q

What is the difference between confirmation and falsification in hypothesis testing?

A

Confirmation involves finding evidence that supports the hypothesis, while falsification seeks evidence that contradicts it

36
Q

How does inductive reasoning apply to everyday decision-making?

A

when we make decisions based on past experiences, such as assuming that a restaurant will be good because we enjoyed a meal there previously

37
Q

What is Expected Utility Theory (EUT)?

A

a normative model of decision making that assumes people are rational and aim to make optimal choices based on maximizing economic value

38
Q

How does Expected Utility Theory define decision-making?

A

the process of choosing the option that returns the highest likely value, based on subjective utility (how much we value different outcomes) and subjective probability (a person’s estimate of an outcome)

39
Q

What is a common critique of Expected Utility Theory?

A

people do not always make decisions methodically or rationally, often relying on heuristics and biases instead

40
Q

How does human behavior often deviate from EUT?

A

Human behavior often deviates from EUT due to cognitive biases, emotional factors, and the use of heuristics

41
Q

What is the primary way we limit cognitive resources when making decisions?

A

using shortcuts and best-guesses, often referred to as heuristics

42
Q

What factors limit our decision-making processes?

A

Time constraints, environmental factors, and limited cognitive resources

43
Q

What is the role of heuristics in decision making?

A
  • mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making processes
  • make judgments quickly
  • may lead to biases
44
Q

What is decision-making framing?

A

how the background context of a choice and the wording of the options can influence people’s decisions, making two equal choices appear psychologically different

45
Q

Give an example of framing in decision-making.

A

People are more likely to choose meat described as “80% lean” rather than “20% fat,” even though both descriptions refer to the same product

46
Q

How do people evaluate outcomes in decision-making?

A

outcomes as changes from a reference point (the current state), often preferring perceived gains over perceived losses

47
Q

What does Prospect Theory suggest about decision-making?

A

people are risk-averse when it comes to gains and risk-seeking when faced with losses

48
Q

What is a common cognitive bias related to framing?

A

loss aversion, where individuals prefer to avoid losses rather than acquire equivalent gains

49
Q

What is the Representativeness Heuristic?

A

a mental shortcut that judges the likelihood of an event based on how similar it is to a typical case or to a specific category

50
Q

What is the small-sample fallacy?

A

when people believe that small samples are representative of the larger population, leading to extreme results that do not accurately reflect the overall population

51
Q

How does the small-sample fallacy contribute to prejudice?

A

individuals make judgments about a whole group based on a small, unrepresentative sample, assuming that one person’s characteristics reflect those of the entire group

52
Q

What is the base-rate fallacy?

A

people ignore the underlying probability of an event in favor of specific present evidence

53
Q

What does the representativeness heuristic lead people to do?

A

leads people to judge the likelihood of an event based on how much it resembles a typical case

54
Q

What is the conjunction fallacy?

A

the error in logic where people assume that two specific conditions are more probable than a single, more general condition

55
Q

What is the Availability Heuristic?

A

a cognitive shortcut where people judge the frequency or likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind

56
Q

How does the Availability Heuristic influence decision-making?

A

leading individuals to overestimate the frequency of events that are more memorable or recent, regardless of their actual statistical prevalence

57
Q

Give an example of the Availability Heuristic.

A

are there more words that start with the letter “K” or have “K” as the third letter, many people incorrectly believe there are more words starting with “K”

58
Q

What factors can influence the ease of retrieval in the Availability Heuristic?

A

recency of the information, familiarity with the information, and its saliency or prominence in memory

59
Q

What is the Simulation Heuristic?

A

a cognitive process where individuals assess the likelihood of an event based on how easily they can imagine alternative outcomes

60
Q

What is the Anchoring Heuristic?

A

tendency for individuals to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”) when making decisions

61
Q

Provide an example of the Anchoring Heuristic in advertising.

A

A TV announcer might say, “How much would you pay? $200… how about $150?”

62
Q

What is the Optimism Bias?

A

tendency for individuals to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes happening to them and underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes

63
Q

What is the Endowment Effect?

A

people assign higher value to items they own compared to items they do not own

64
Q

What is Status Quo Bias?

A

the preference to keep things the same rather than change

65
Q

What are the two systems involved in decision making according to the Dual-Process Theory?

A

System 1 (automatic and implicit) and System 2 (controlled and conscious).

66
Q

Describe System 1 in the context of decision making.

A

fast, automatic, and relies on heuristics for decision making, often operating without conscious thought.

67
Q

Describe System 2 in the context of decision making.

A

System 2 is slower, controlled, and involves conscious thought and deliberation, allowing for more rational and optimal decision making

68
Q

What is the first step in using System 2 for decision making?

A

Recognize the need to engage in more deliberate and rational thinking

69
Q

What is the second step in using System 2 for decision making?

A

Inhibit the automatic responses of System 1 to allow for more thoughtful analysis

70
Q

What is the third step in using System 2 for decision making?

A

Perform the necessary calculations or analyses to arrive at a decision.

71
Q

How do experts differ from novices in decision making?

A

Experts are more likely to use heuristic responses effectively due to their experience

72
Q

What is the significance of statistical knowledge in decision making?

A

important for making normative decisions, as it helps individuals understand probabilities and make more informed choices

73
Q

What is the potential downside of relying on heuristics in decision making?

A

Heuristics can lead to systematic errors and biases

PSY270 (10 decks)

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