DCF (Other) Flashcards
- What’s the point of valuation? WHY do you value a company?
You value a company to determine its Implied Value according to your views of it.
If this Implied Value is very different from the company’s Current Value, you might be able to
invest in the company and make money if its value changes.
If you are advising a client company, you might value it so you can tell management the price
that it might receive if the company sells, which is often different from its Current Value.
- Public companies already have Market Caps and Share Prices. Why bother valuing
them?
Because a company’s Market Cap and Share Price reflect its Current Value according to “the
market as a whole” – but the market might be wrong!
- What are the advantages and disadvantages of the 3 main valuation methodologies?
Public Comps are useful because they’re based on real market data, are quick to calculate and
explain, and do not depend on far-in-the-future assumptions.
However, there may not be truly comparable companies, the analysis will be less accurate for
volatile or thinly traded companies, and it may undervalue companies’ long-term potential.
Precedent Transactions are useful because they’re based on the real prices that companies
have paid for other companies, and they may better reflect industry trends than Public Comps.
However, the data is often spotty and misleading, there may not be truly comparable
transactions, and specific deal terms and market conditions might distort the multiples.
DCF Analysis is the most “correct” methodology according to finance theory, it’s less subject to
market fluctuations, and it better reflects company-specific factors and long-term trends.
However, it’s also very dependent on far-in-the-future assumptions, and there’s disagreement
over the proper calculations for key figures like the Cost of Equity and WACC.
- Which one should be worth more: A $500 million EBITDA healthcare company or a $500
million EBITDA industrials company?
Assume the growth rates, margins, and all other financial stats are the same.
In all likelihood, the healthcare company will be worth more because healthcare is a less assetintensive industry. That means the company’s CapEx and Working Capital requirements will be
lower, and its Free Cash Flow will be higher (i.e., closer to EBITDA) as a result.
Healthcare, at least in some sectors, also tends to be more of a “growth industry” than
industrials.
The Discount Rate might also be higher for the healthcare company, but the lower asset
intensity and higher expected growth rates would likely make up for that.
However, this answer is an extreme generalization, so you would need more information to
make a real decision.
- People say that the DCF is an intrinsic valuation methodology, while Public Comps and
Precedent Transactions are relative valuation.
No, not exactly. The DCF is based on the company’s expected future cash flows, so in that
sense, it is “intrinsic valuation.”
But the Discount Rate used in a DCF is linked to peer companies (market data), and if you use
the Multiples Method to calculate Terminal Value, the multiples are also linked to peer
companies.
The DCF depends less on the market than the other methodologies, but there is still some
dependency.
It’s more accurate to say that the DCF is more of an intrinsic valuation methodology than the
others.
- What does the Discount Rate mean conceptually?
The Discount Rate represents the opportunity cost for the investors – what they could earn by
investing in other, similar companies in this industry.
A higher Discount Rate means the risk and potential returns are both higher; a lower Discount
Rate means lower risk and lower potential returns.
A higher Discount Rate makes a company less valuable because it means the investors have
better options elsewhere; a lower Discount Rate makes a company more valuable.
- Does a DCF ever make sense for a company with negative cash flows?
Yes, it may. A DCF is based on a company’s expected future cash flows, so even if the company
is cash flow-negative right now, the analysis could work if it starts generating positive cash
flows in the future.
If the company has no path to positive cash flows, or you can’t reasonably forecast its cash
flows, then the analysis doesn’t make sense.
- How do the Levered DCF Analysis and Adjusted Present Value (APV) Analysis differ from
the Unlevered DCF?
In a Levered DCF, you use Levered FCF for the cash flows and Cost of Equity for the Discount
Rate, and you calculate Terminal Value using Equity Value-based multiples such as P / E.
You don’t back into Implied Equity Value at the end because the analysis produces the Implied
Equity Value directly.
An APV Analysis is similar to a traditional Unlevered DCF, but you value the company’s Interest
Tax Shield separately and add the Present Value of this Tax Shield at the end.
You still calculate Unlevered FCF and Terminal Value in the same way, but you use Unlevered
Cost of Equity for the Discount Rate (i.e., Risk-Free Rate + Equity Risk Premium * Median
Unlevered Beta from Public Comps).
You then project the Interest Tax Shield each year, discount it at that same Discount Rate,
calculate the Interest Tax Shield Terminal Value, discount it, and add up everything at the end.
- Why do you typically use the Unlevered DCF rather than the Levered DCF or APV Analysis?
The traditional Unlevered DCF is easier to set up, forecast, and explain, and it produces more
consistent results than the other methods.
With the other methods, you have to project the company’s Cash and Debt balances, Net
Interest Expense, and changes in Debt principal, all of which require more time and effort.
The Levered DCF sometimes produces odd results because Debt principal repayments can spike
the Levered FCF up or down in individual years.
The APV Analysis is flawed because it doesn’t factor in the main downside of Debt: Increased
chances of bankruptcy. You can try to reflect this risk, but no one agrees on how to estimate it
numerically.
The Unlevered DCF solves this issue because WACC decreases with additional Debt, at first, but
then starts increasing past a certain level, which reflects both the advantages and
disadvantages of Debt.
What is the rule of thumb for knowing if an item should be included in FCF
Calculating Unlevered FCF is simple if you remember the key rule: Include only recurring items
that are related to the company’s core business and that are available to all the investor groups.
There are some trickier topics, but you can answer 90% of interview questions by
understanding that rule.
- Why do you calculate Unlevered Free Cash Flow by including and excluding various items
on the financial statements?
Unlevered FCF must capture the company’s core, recurring line items that are available to ALL
investor groups.
That’s because Unlevered FCF corresponds to Enterprise Value, which also represents the value
of the company’s core business available to all investor groups.
So, if an item is NOT recurring, NOT related to the company’s core business, or NOT available to
all investor groups, you leave it out.
This rule explains why you exclude all of the following items:
• Net Interest Expense – Only available to Debt investors.
• Other Income / (Expense) – Corresponds to non-core-business Assets.
• Most non-cash adjustments besides D&A – They’re non-recurring.
• All Items in Cash Flow from Financing – They’re only available to certain investors.
• Most of Cash Flow from Investing – Only CapEx is a recurring, core-business item
- How does the Change in Working Capital affect Free Cash Flow, and what does it tell you
about a company’s business model?
he Change in Working Capital tells you whether the company generates more cash than
expected as it grows, or whether it requires more cash to fuel that growth.
It’s related to whether a company records expenses and revenue before or after paying or
collecting them in cash.
For example, retailers tend to have negative values for the Change in Working Capital because
they must pay for Inventory upfront before they can sell products.
But subscription-based software companies often have positive values for the Change in
Working Capital because they collect cash from long-term subscriptions upfront and recognize
it as revenue over time.
The Change in WC could increase or decrease the company’s Free Cash Flow, but it’s rarely a
major value driver because it’s fairly small for most companies.
- Should you add back Stock-Based Compensation to calculate Free Cash Flow? It’s a noncash add-back on the Cash Flow Statement.
No! You should consider SBC a cash expense in the context of valuation because it creates
additional shares and dilutes the existing investors.
By contrast, Depreciation & Amortization relate to timing differences: The company paid for a
capital asset earlier on but recognizes that payment over many years.
Stock-Based Compensation is a non-cash add-back on the Cash Flow Statement, but the context
is different: Accounting rather than valuation.
In a DCF, you should count SBC as a real cash expense or, if you count it as a non-cash add-back,
you should reflect the additional shares by increasing the company’s diluted share count, which
will reduce the Implied Share Price.
Most DCFs get this completely wrong because they use neither approach: They pretend that
SBC is a normal non-cash charge that makes no impact on the share count (wrong!).
- What’s the proper tax rate to use when calculating FCF – the effective tax rate, the
statutory tax rate, or the cash tax rate?
The company’s Free Cash Flows should reflect the cash taxes it pays.
So, it doesn’t matter which rate you use as long as the cash taxes are correct.
For example, you could use the company’s effective tax rate (Income Statement Taxes / Pre-Tax
Income), and then include Deferred Taxes within the non-cash adjustments.
Or you could calculate and use the company’s “cash tax rate” and skip the Deferred Tax
adjustments.
You could even use the statutory tax rate and make adjustments for state/local taxes and other
items to arrive at the company’s real cash taxes.
It’s most common to use the effective tax rate and then adjust for Deferred Taxes based on
historical trends
- How should CapEx and Depreciation change within the explicit forecast period?
Just like the company’s Free Cash Flow growth rate should decline in the explicit forecast
period, the company’s CapEx and Depreciation should also decline.
High-growth companies tend to spend more on Capital Expenditures to support their growth,
but this spending declines over time as the companies move from “growth” to “maintenance.”
If the company’s FCF is growing, CapEx should always exceed Depreciation, but there may be
less of a difference by the end.
Also, if the company’s FCF is growing, CapEx should not equal Depreciation – even in the
Terminal Period.
That’s partially due to inflation (capital assets purchased 5-10 years ago cost less), and partially
because Net PP&E must keep growing to support FCF Growth in the Terminal Period.
If you’re assuming that the company’s FCF stagnates or declines, then you might use different
assumptions.