Comp 1: Voting Behavior And Media Flashcards
Social class
2024
Tory vote:
- 2019 - AB = 45%. DE = 41%
- 1979 - AB = 59%. DE = 34%
Labour vote:
- 2019 - AB = 30%. DE = 39%
- 1979 - AB = 24%. DE = 49%
AB MOE LIKELY TO VOTE TORY BUT STILL HIGH LABOUR %
DE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE LABOUR BUT MORE RECENTLY TORY
2019 15% GAP - AB MORE LIKELY VOTE TORY
AB: 48% Lab / 21% Con
C1: 44% Lab / 22% Con
C2: 42% Lab / 26% Con
DE: 42% Lab / 23% Con
- 1964-66 (64%) of working class voted labour - 62% of middle class voted Tory
- 1970 inwards accelerating class dealignment
- ## manual workforced reduced from 58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013.
Class dealignment
- according to British electoral society
- 49% of people voted for different parties across 3 elections 2010-2017
- electoral volatility increasing
Gender
- Tory vote 2024 - men = 22. Women = 23
- labour 2024- men = 43. Women = 46
Insignificant difference
Age
- 1979 - both groups more likely vote Tory
- 18-24 = 42% , 65+ = 47%
- 2024 difference grew with younger age less likely to vote Tory
- 18-24 = 9%, 70+ = 43%
Labour = 18-24=56%. 70+=23%
Green = 18-24=14%. 70+=4%
Ethnicity
- 2015 labour had lead over Tory with 42% more voters among black African Caribbean heritage and 18% lead on south asian voter.
- 2019 labour performed better than Tory among ethnic minority groups (64% to 20%).
Region
-2017 swing to labour in London and south as well as wales, NW and E
- 2019 Tory polled well consistently across England but Labour concentrated in London
Electoral volatility
- study by British electoral society showed 49% voted for different parties across 3 election from 2010-17
Issue voting/rational choice model
- get Brexit done campaign 2019 boosted Tory vote share to 74%
- 1992,2017,2019 labour policies favoured despite Tory winning
- voter claiming to be Labour or Troy voters dropped from 43% to 40% in 1964 to 31 and 27% in 2015
Valence issues
- voters deciding which party is best to deliver on issue
- 2019 labour policy favoured but not seen as capable to deliver it unlike Tory’s
Govt competency
- 2010 GE labour reputation after global financial crisis and subsequent recession ruined winning chances
-0
Leadership
- 1997 Tony Blair personality helped his win but in 2005 his personal appeal diminished.
- 2019 leadership was an issue for both parties. Johnson nor Corbyn universally respected. But polls said that 49% of voters said BJ would be better PM, 31% saying corbyn would and 20% saying they didn’t know.
Party image
- 1990 labour working hard to recreate image. Introduction of NEW LABOUR IN 1997 led to their win.
- 2005 aim to change Tory party leading to 5% swing in 2010 from lab to Tory due to inclusive appeal aimed at young, women and ethnic minorities.
Campaign
- 1992 - Major standing on a box during campaign ensured his majority and made him more relatable and engaging to voters.
- but 2010 Tory campaign damaged labour associating them with ‘excessive spending’ waiting money leading to financial crisis of 2008-9 (labour debt crisis)
Turnout
- 2017 increase to 69% showing large increase in public interest in issue
Print media
- decline from 21.9m in 2010 50 10.4m in 2018. Overall fall of 52.5%
- 58% of 65+ use print papers but only 20% of 16-24 year olds do
- sun has highest (30.2m) reads of online paper
