Comp 1: Voting Behavior And Media

Question 1

Social class

Answer 1

Tory vote:
- 2019 - AB = 45%. DE = 41%
- 1979 - AB = 59%. DE = 34%

Labour vote:
- 2019 - AB = 30%. DE = 39%
- 1979 - AB = 24%. DE = 49%

AB MOE LIKELY TO VOTE TORY BUT STILL HIGH LABOUR %
DE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE LABOUR BUT MORE RECENTLY TORY

2019 15% GAP - AB MORE LIKELY VOTE TORY

• 1964-66 (64%) of working class voted labour - 62% of middle class voted Tory
• 1970 inwards accelerating class dealignment
• ## manual workforced reduced from 58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013.

Question 2

Class dealignment

Answer 2

• according to British electoral society
• 49% of people voted for different parties across 3 elections 2010-2017
• electoral volatility increasing

Question 3

Gender

Answer 3

• Tory vote 2019 - men = 46%. Women = 43%
• labour 2019 - men = 31%. Women = 34%

Insignificant difference

Question 4

Age

Answer 4

• 1979 - both groups more likely vote Tory
• 18-24 = 42% , 65+ = 47%
• 2019 difference grew with younger age less likely to vote Tory
• 18-24 = 19%, 65+ = 64%

Question 5

Ethnicity

Answer 5

• 2015 labour had lead over Tory with 42% more voters among black African Caribbean heritage and 18% lead on south asian voter.
• 2019 labour performed better than Tory among ethnic minority groups (64% to 20%).

Question 6

Region

Answer 6

-2017 swing to labour in London and south as well as wales, NW and E
- 2019 Tory polled well consistently across England but Labour concentrated in London

Question 7

Electoral volatility

Answer 7

• study by British electoral society showed 49% voted for different parties across 3 election from 2010-17

Question 8

Issue voting/rational choice model

Answer 8

• get Brexit done campaign 2019 boosted Tory vote share to 74%
• 1992,2017,2019 labour policies favoured despite Tory winning
• voter claiming to be Labour or Troy voters dropped from 43% to 40% in 1964 to 31 and 27% in 2015

Question 9

Valence issues

Answer 9

• voters deciding which party is best to deliver on issue
• 2019 labour policy favoured but not seen as capable to deliver it unlike Tory’s

Question 10

Govt competency

Answer 10

• 2010 GE labour reputation after global financial crisis and subsequent recession ruined winning chances
  -0

Question 11

Leadership

Answer 11

• 1997 Tony Blair personality helped his win but in 2005 his personal appeal diminished.
• 2019 leadership was an issue for both parties. Johnson nor Corbyn universally respected. But polls said that 49% of voters said BJ would be better PM, 31% saying corbyn would and 20% saying they didn’t know.

Question 12

Party image

Answer 12

• 1990 labour working hard to recreate image. Introduction of NEW LABOUR IN 1997 led to their win.
• 2005 aim to change Tory party leading to 5% swing in 2010 from lab to Tory due to inclusive appeal aimed at young, women and ethnic minorities.

Question 13

Campaign

Answer 13

• 1992 - Major standing on a box during campaign ensured his majority and made him more relatable and engaging to voters.
• but 2010 Tory campaign damaged labour associating them with ‘excessive spending’ waiting money leading to financial crisis of 2008-9 (labour debt crisis)

Question 14

Turnout

Answer 14

• 2017 increase to 69% showing large increase in public interest in issue

Question 15

Print media

Answer 15

• decline from 21.9m in 2010 50 10.4m in 2018. Overall fall of 52.5%
• 58% of 65+ use print papers but only 20% of 16-24 year olds do
• sun has highest (30.2m) reads of online paper

Question 16

Broadcast media

Answer 16

• BBC, ITV and SKY most significant.
• BBC most popular with 76% using BBC 1 for news. 55% of adults in uk watch BB 1 news each week despite it being down from 65% in 2010
• helped campaigns like ‘GET BREXIT DONE’.

Question 17

Social media

Answer 17

• risen since 2013
• 2017, over 1.5m people under 35 registered to vote in month from date election was called due to encouragement seen online.
• rising spread of fake news e.g. 2017 election, sun argued there were misleading claims made by labour about Tory’s planning to privatise NHS.

Question 18

Opinion polls

Answer 18

• exit polls showed Cameron would win a majority in 2015, that Mat would lose majority in 2017 and BJ would win majority in 2019.
• polling on Covid-19 crisis enables party leaders to see impact on how they were handling the situation.
• 2017 may called early election die to Troy lead of 17% in polls, but true outcome was 2.4% lead. Would election be called if polls were accurate.

Question 19

Media bias

Answer 19

• sun paper backed Boris in 2019 and 2016 Brexit referendum = open bias
• 2019 BJ and Tory party boycotted Today programme on Radio 4 over alleged Anti-Tory bias = hidden bias

Question 20

Print media bias

Answer 20

• popularity of papers like Sun and others owned by Murdock gave them power to shape agenda and influence public opinion.
• larger slice of print media supports Tory party (63.95% of market share in 2018). - makes it harder for labour to get public opinion on its side and win elections.

Question 21

Broadcast media bias

Answer 21

• lack of bias due to broadcasters needed to embrace neutrality to be professional.
• left have attached BBC for pro-employers and anti-workers stance while right see BBC as liberal institution opposed to Tory values.

Question 22

General media example

Answer 22

• 2010 nick cldgg popular televised debates - CLEGGMANIA
• 1992 suns influence ‘the sun wot won it’
• 1997 Blair befriended Murdock
• 2017 many ‘milifans’ but he still lost despite popularity and support
• 2016 GET BREXIT DONE was very popular and catchy campaign

Question 23

What papers support what parties

Answer 23

• sun readers support labour as of march 2024
• all support labour but The Daily Mail

Question 24

Media impact of politicians

Answer 24

Corbyn only politician to have media or anyone to show up outside their house.