Combined decks Flashcards
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R19
Mean Variance Optimisation
- AO approach
- Assume investors are risk averse.
- Find the optimal point of the efficient frontier
- Identofies the portfolio that maximise returns for a given level of risk.
- Inputs are returns, risk, and pair-wise correlations.
- Find the certainty equivalent rate of return:
Um = E(Rm) − 0.005λσ2
[input E(Rm) and σ2 in whole numbers if using o.oo5]
λ - risk coefficient 1-10, average 4
- Contraints - budget (utility) contraint - all asset class weights must sum to 1
- Contraint - non-negativity contraint - all weights in asset class must be positive. No shorting,
R19
MVO Issues
- The outputs (asset allocations) are highly sensitive to small changes in the inputs.
- The asset allocations tend to be highly concentrated in a subset of the available asset classes.
- Many investors are concerned about more than the mean and variance of returns, the focus of MVO.
- Although the asset allocations may appear diversified across assets, the sources of risk may not be diversified.
- Most portfolios exist to pay for a liability or consumption series, and MVO allocations are not directly connected to what influences the value of the liability or the consumption series.
- MVO is a single-period framework that does not take account of trading/rebalancing costs and taxes.
R19
Black-Litterman
- Focus on constrained models (no shorting, no negative asset weights)
- Generate well diversifed portfolios and incorporates investors own views and their own confidence in their expectations.
- Use reverse optimisation
- Less likely to have asset class concentrated positions
R19
Reverse Optimisation
- MVO solves for optimal asset weights based on expected returns, covariances, and a risk aversion coefficient. Based on predetermined inputs, an optimizer solves for the optimal asset allocation weights. As the name implies, reverse optimization works in the opposite direction. Reverse optimization takes as its inputs a set of asset allocation weights that are assumed to be optimal and, with the additional inputs of covariances and the risk aversion coefficient, solves for expected returns.
R19
Additional Constraints to use with MVO (5)
- Specify a set allocation to a specific asset—for example, 30% to real estate or 45% to human capital. This kind of constraint is typically used when one wants to include a non-tradable asset in the asset allocation decision and optimize around the non-tradable asset.
- Specify an asset allocation range for an asset—for example, the emerging market allocation must be between 5% and 20%. This specification could be used to accommodate a constraint created by an investment policy, or it might reflect the user’s desire to control the output of the optimization.
- Specify an upper limit, due to liquidity considerations, on an alternative asset class, such as private equity or hedge funds.
- Specify the relative allocation of two or more assets—for example, the allocation to emerging market equities must be less than the allocation to developed equities.
- In a liability-relative (or surplus) optimization setting, one can constrain the optimizer to hold one or more assets representing the systematic characteristics of the liability short.
R19
Resampled Mean–Variance Optimization
- Combines Markowitz’s mean–variance optimization framework with Monte Carlo simulation and, all else equal, leads to more-diversified asset allocations. In contrast to reverse optimization, the Black–Litterman model, and constraints, resampled mean–variance optimization is an attempt to build a better optimizer that recognizes that forward-looking inputs are inherently subject to error.
- Uses an average processes and creates an efficient frontier that is more stable than what is got from traditional MVO
- Better diversification
- Lacks sound theoretical basis
- Inputs still based on historical data, therefore might lack relevence to current period.
R19
Monte Carlo
- Addresses limitations of MVO as a single peroid model
- Can incorpoate taxes and rebalancing
- Can be used to see the probably the client will run out of money (longevity risk)
R19
AA liquidity considerations
- Few indices to track illiquid assets
- If there were accurate indexes, there are no low-cost passive investment vehicles to track them.
- Risk / Return for AI can be very different from traditional assets
- Therefore practical options include the following:
- Exclude less liquid asset classes (direct real estate, infrastructure, and private equity) from the asset allocation decision and then consider real estate funds, infrastructure funds, and private equity funds as potential implementation vehicles when fulfilling the target strategic asset allocation.
- Include less liquid asset classes in the asset allocation decision and attempt to model the inputs to represent the specific risk characteristics associated with the likely implementation vehicles.
- Include less liquid asset classes in the asset allocation decision and attempt to model the inputs to represent the highly diversified characteristics associated with the true asset classes.
R19
Risk Budgeting
Marginal contribution to risk (MCTR):
Asset beta relative to portfolio × Portfolio standard deviation
ACTR:
Asset weight in portfolio × MCTR
Ratio of excess return to MCTR:
(Expected return – Risk-free rate)/MCTR
% of risk contributed by positionx:
ACTRx / σp
R19
MCTR / ACTR
MCTR - the rate at which risk would change with a small (or marginal) change in the current weights of asset
ACTR - for an asset class measures how much it contributes to portfolio return volatility
R19
Factor-Based Asset Allocation
- An alternative approach used by some practitioners is to move away from an opportunity set of asset classes to an opportunity set consisting of investment factors.
- Long the overperforming factor, short the underperforming factor
- Typical factors used in asset allocation include size, valuation, momentum, liquidity, duration (term), credit, and volatility.
- Risk and return possibilities are very similar regardless whether implementing MVO using asset classes or factors
R19
Surplus Optimisation
- Liability Relative approach
- Surplus return defined as:
(Change in asset value – Change in liability value)/(Initial asset value)
- Surplus optimization exploits natural hedges that may exist between assets and liabilities as a result of their systematic risk characteristics.
R19
Two portfolio approach
Hedging/Return-Seeking Portfolio Approach
- Liability Relative approach
- Seperate asset (return-seeking portfolio) portfolio and hedging portfolio
- The hedging portfolio must include assets whose returns are driven by the same factor(s) that drive the returns of the liabilities.
- Often used my insurance companies and pension plans
- Limitations
- If funding ratio is <1 then difficult to hedging
- Hedging portfolio might not be able to hedge ALL risks
R19
Integrated Asset-Liability Approach
- Liability Relative approach
- Significant decisions regarding the composition of liabilities made in conjunction with the asset allocation
- Banks, long–short hedge funds (for which short positions constitute liabilities), insurance companies, and re-insurance companies routinely fall into this situation
- Within this category, the liability-relative approaches have several names, including asset–liability management (ALM) for banks and some other investors and dynamic financial analysis (DFA) for insurance companies.
R19
Goals Based Approach
- More useful for individual investors
- The overall portfolio needs to be divided into sub-portfolios to permit each goal to be addressed individually.
- Both taxable and tax-exempt investments are important.
- Probability- and time horizon-adjusted expectations replace the typical use of mathematically expected average returns in determining the appropriate funding cost for the goal (or “discount rate” for future cash flows).
- Use predetermined sub portfolios
- Ensure that there is no “hidden” goal that should be brought out and that the apparently “single” retirement goal is not in fact an aggregation of several elements with different levels of urgency,
- Higher level of business management complexity. They will naturally expect to have a different policy for each client and potentially more than one policy per client. Thus, managing these portfolios day to day and satisfying the usual regulatory requirement that all clients be treated in an equivalent manner can appear to be a major quandary.
R19
Heuristics and Other Approaches to Asset Allocation
- The “120 minus your age” rule for position in equity
- The 60/40 stock/bond heuristic.
- The endowment model - emphasizes large allocations to non-traditional investments than would be recommended by an MVO approach.
- Risk parity - based on the notion that each asset (asset class or risk factor) should contribute equally to the total risk of the portfolio for a portfolio to be well diversified. Only focuses on risk not return. Critics of these back tests (showing good results from this approach) argue that they suffer from look-back bias and are very dependent on the ability to use extremely large amounts of leverage at low borrow rates (which may not have been feasible)
- The 1/N rule.
R18
Life Cycle Balanced Fund
- A target date retirement fund (life cycle balance fund) incorporates human capital with asset allocation
- Human capital generally 30% equity, 70% Fixed Income
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Asset Only
- Does not explicitly model liabilities or goals
- Example Mean Variance Optimisation - best to complement with Monte Carlo analysis.
- Maximize Sharpe ratio for acceptable level of volatility
- Liabilities or goals not defined and/or simplicity is important
- Relevant risk measure is the SD of portfolio returns - taking into account asset class volatilites and correlations
Some foundations, endowments
Sovereign wealth funds
Individual investors
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Liability relative
- Models legal and quasi-liabilities
- Example Surplus Optimisation
- Fund liabilities and invest excess assets for growth
- Penalty for not meeting liabilities high
- Based on meeting liabilities - focus on institutions
- Relevant risk - not having enough asset in portfolio to cover liabilities. Measure SD of the surplus could be used as the relevant risk measure.
Banks
Defined benefit pensions
Insurers
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Goals based
- Achieve goals with specified required probabilities of success
- Individual investors
- Each sub portfolio has unique asset allocation depending on goal
- Based on meeting liabilities - focus on individual
- Risk - not being able to achieve the stated goals. Probablity of meeting goals.
R18
Asset Class Criteria (5)
- Assets within an asset class should be relatively homogeneous. Assets within an asset class should have similar attributes. In the example just given, defining equities to include both real estate and common stock would result in a non-homogeneous asset class.
- Asset classes should be mutually exclusive. Overlapping asset classes will reduce the effectiveness of strategic asset allocation in controlling risk and could introduce problems in developing asset class return expectations. For example, if one asset class for a US investor is domestic common equities, then world equities ex-US is more appropriate as another asset class rather than global equities, which include US equities.
- Asset classes should be diversifying. For risk control purposes, an included asset class should not have extremely high expected correlations with other asset classes or with a linear combination of other asset classes. Otherwise, the included asset class will be effectively redundant in a portfolio because it will duplicate risk exposures already present. In general, a pairwise correlation above 0.95 is undesirable (given a sufficient number of observations to have confidence in the correlation estimate).
- The asset classes as a group should make up a preponderance of world investable wealth. From the perspective of portfolio theory, selecting an asset allocation from a group of asset classes satisfying this criterion should tend to increase expected return for a given level of risk. Furthermore, the inclusion of more markets expands the opportunities for applying active investment strategies, assuming the decision to invest actively has been made. However, such factors as regulatory restrictions on investments and government-imposed limitations on investment by foreigners may limit the asset classes an investor can invest in.
- Asset classes selected for investment should have the capacity to absorb a meaningful proportion of an investor’s portfolio. Liquidity and transaction costs are both significant considerations. If liquidity and expected transaction costs for an investment of a size meaningful for an investor are unfavorable, an asset class may not be practically suitable for investment.
R18
SAA (9 Steps)
- Determine and quantify the investor’s objectives.
- Determine the investor’s risk tolerance and how risk should be expressed and measured.
- Determine the investment horizon(s).
- Determine other constraints and the requirements they impose on asset allocation choices. What is the tax status of the investor? Should assets be managed with consideration given to ESG issues? Are there any legal and regulatory factors that need to be considered? Are any political sensitivities relevant? Are there any other constraints that the investor has imposed in the IPS and other communications?
- Determine the approach to asset allocation that is most suitable for the investor.
- Specify asset classes, and develop a set of capital market expectations for the specified asset classes.
- Develop a range of potential asset allocation choices for consideration. These choices are often developed through optimization exercises.
- Test the robustness of the potential choices. This testing often involves conducting simulations to evaluate potential results in relation to investment objectives and risk tolerance over appropriate planning horizon(s) for the different asset allocations developed in Step 7. The sensitivity of the outcomes to changes in capital market expectations is also tested.
- Iterate back to Step 7 until an appropriate and agreed-on asset allocation is constructed
R18
Global Market Portfolio
- Global Market Portfolio is tangency portfolio
- The weights of the assets in the Global Market Portfolio can be adjusted up or down.
- Some assets can be difficult to invest in (e.g. residential real estate or private equity) so will use a proxy e.g. ETF’s
R18
TAA
- Active managment choices for asset class weights
- Exploting short term opportunities
- However cost-benefit approach required - e.g. taxes, transaction costs.
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Factors that influence asset owners’ decisions on where to invest on the passive/active spectrum
- Available investments.
- Scalability of active strategies being considered.
- The feasibility of investing passively while incorporating client-specific constraints.
- Beliefs concerning market informational efficiency. A strong belief in market efficiency for the asset class(es) under consideration would orient the investor away from active management.
- The trade-off of expected incremental benefits relative to incremental costs and risks of active choices. Costs of active management include investment management costs, trading costs, and turnover-induced taxes; such costs would have to be judged relative to the lower costs of index alternatives, which vary by asset class.
- Tax status. Holding other variables constant, taxable investors would tend to have higher hurdles to profitable active management than tax-exempt investors.
R18
Rebalancing
- Higher transaction costs for an asset class imply wider rebalancing ranges.
- More risk-averse investors will have tighter rebalancing ranges.
- Less correlated assets also have tighter rebalancing ranges.
- Beliefs in momentum favor wider rebalancing ranges, whereas mean reversion encourages tighter ranges.
- Illiquid investments complicate rebalancing.
- Derivatives create the possibility of synthetic rebalancing.
- Taxes, which are a cost, discourage rebalancing and encourage asymmetric and wider rebalancing ranges.
What must portfolio management process reconcile?
The portfolio management process must reconcile (balance):
- Asset owner objectives
- The possibilities offered by the investment opportunity set
Explain the importance of the IPS.
The investment policy statement (IPS) is the foundation of an effective investment program.
- A well-designed IPS serves as the foundation and guidance to investment managers/advisors for ongoing management of scheme assets.
- A well designed IPS assures stakeholders that program assets are managed with the appropriate care and diligence.
Six typical key elements of an IPS
- An introduction that describes the purpose and scope of the document itself and describes the asset owner. The description of the asset owner should allow the reader of the IPS to understand the context within which the investment program exists.
- A statement of investment objectives, which describes the target investment returns and willingness to endure risk to achieve these returns.
- A section discussing the investment constraints within which the investment program must operate to include liquidity requirements time horizons tax concerns, legal and regulatory factors, and unique circumstances
- A statement of duties and responsibilities outlining the allocation of decision rights and responsibilities among the investment committee, investment staff and any third-party service providers.
- An explanation of the investment guidelines to be followed in implementation and on specific types of assets excluded from investment, if any.
- A section specifying the frequency and nature of reporting to the investment committee and to the board of directors.
R21
IPS currency management policy
The IPS’ currency management policy must address:
• How much currency exposure should be hedged passively
• Degree of latitude for diversion from the above
• How frequently hedges should be rebalanced
• Currency hedge performance benchmark
• Permitted hedging tools (forwards, swaps, options, etc.)
R21
Diversification Considerations
Diversification Considerations:
- Time horizon: FX is mean-reverting in long run, so less hedging is needed
- Correlation between RFC and RFX : tends to be stronger for fixed income than for equity, so fixed income portfolios are more likely to be hedged
R21
Costs of Hedging
- Bid Offer Spread
- Options Premium
- Roll-Over cost of forwards
- Adminstrative infrastructure for trading FX derivatives
- Opportunity Costs
R21
When is a highly hedge policy appropriate
A more currency risk -averse and highly hedged policy will be appropriate, if:
- • There are short -term objectives
- • Client is very risk averse
- • There are immediate income/liquidity needs to be met out of the portfolio
- • More fixed income securities are held in a foreign fixed income currency portfolio
- • A low-cost hedging program is possible
- • Financial markets
- • Client does not believe active currency management will improve portfolio returns or reduce risk
R21
Forwards and Foreign Currency Receipts
When a company is recieving cashflows in a foreign currency they are long the currency. Company sells its products in many countries >>> therefore short currency forward contract
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Forwards and Foreign Currency Payment
- When a company has to purchase the foreign currency they are short the currency. Company has to buy resources from foreign company e.g. steel >>> therefore long currency forward contract
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Hedging Returns - what is earnt
- Hedging the foreign market return only, expect to earn only the risk foreign free rate.
- Hedge foreign market return and exchange rate earn only the domestic risk free rate
R21
Direct vs Indirect Quote
Direct Quote:
DC/FC
Note DC (Price Currency)/ FC (Base currency)
Indirect Quote:
FC/DC
- Focus on the denominator
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DAD acromyn
DAD = Down the Ask and Divide
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Rdc, Rfc, Rfx definitions
Rdc = return on the portfolio in domestic currency
R<strong>fc</strong> = return on the foreign asset in foreign (local) currency terms
Rfx = return on foreign currency (% change in value of foreign currency
If you hold an asset in a foriegn currency you want the foreign currency to appreciate. If I have a liability I want the foreign currency to depreciate.
domestic currency = home currency
Foreign currency = local currency
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Currency Hedging Methods (4)
- Passive - eliminate currency risk relevent to the benchmark. Match currency exposure to benchmark. difficult because of rebalancing considerations.
- Discretionary - some deviation from benchmark by a small percentage. To reduce currency risk and enjoy modest incremental currency returns
- Active - large deviations from benchmark. Goal to make incremental returns from managing currency exposure. Within risk limits.
- Currency Overlay manager - external 3rd party manages currency by active manager. Can take exposures seperately from assets held in portfolio. Generatign currency alpha.
R21
Currency hedging conclusions
- Currency volatility in long run has generally been lower in long run
- When + correlation between foreign asset and foreign currency it will increase volatity in domestic returns in the portfolio and therefore increase hedging need.
- When - correlation between foreign asset and foreign currency it will decrease volatity in domestic returns in the portfolio and therefore decrease hedging need.
- Correlations vary by time periods. Therefore diversification varies.
- Higher positive correlation between foreign asset and foreign return in fixed income portfolios then equity portfolios. Therefore increased fixed income in portfolio then increased need for hedging.
- Amount of hedging down to managers preference
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Hedging costs
- Fully hedging increase costs - reduced returns.
- If options used to hedge expire premium is lost - reduced returns
- If forward contracts need to roll often (if less than hedging period) then could result in gains or loss depending on exchange rate.
- Administrative costs
- 100% hedging has opportunity cost. A 50% strategic hedge is often preferred.
R21
Short term strategies (tactical)
Economic Fundemental approach
- Economic Fundemental approach - in the long term currency values will converge to relative PPP. However relative does not hold over short term, but can indicate which currencies have over/under appreciated in the short term.
- Currencies that are expect to appreciate:
- More undervalued compared to their intrinsic value
- Greatest rate of increase in its intrinsic value
- Are those with higher real interest rates or higher nominal rates. Assumes expected inflation is the same.
- Lower inflation rate compared to other countries
- Lower, decreasing, risk premium
R21
Short term strategies (tactical)
Technical Analysis approach
- Past price date can predict future price movements
- Therefore past price patterns tend to repeat
- It doesnt matter what a currency is really worth just where it will trade
- An overbought market would be expected to do down
- An oversold market would be expected to go up
- Support and resistance levels
R21
Short term strategies (tactical)
Carry Trade
- Markets must be very stable
- It is an unhedged trade
- Must be a violation of uncovered Interest Rate Parity to profit
- Borrow in the lower IR currency and invest in higher IR currency.
- If you expect the foreign currency to depreciate by less than the market expectation based on the forward discount you would enter a carry trade. However if the deprecation is far more than market expectation the losses will be great.
- High IR currency in emerging markets can drop very sharply in time of economic stress.
R21
Short term strategies (tactical)
Carry Trade: detailed steps
Assume US IR = 1% and SR - 5%
- Borrow in low IR currency e.g $1,000,000 @ 1%
- Convert Low IR currency into High IR currency using spot rate e.g. $1,000,000 to SR @ 3.75 / $ = SR3750000
- Invest in High IR currency asset e.g $3,750,000 x (1.05)1 = SR3937500
- At end of period convert HR IR currency back to into low IR at spot rate. e.g. assuming unchanged at SR 3.75 SR3,937,500 / 3.75 = $1,050,000
- Pay off original loan e.g. 1,000,000 x 1.01 = 1,010,000. Therefore profit of $40000 on original investment.
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Short term strategies (tactical)
Volatity Trade
- Straddles and Strangles
- Vega
- Long Straddle - ATM buy call and ATM buy put and expecting high volatility.
- Short Straddle - ATM sell call and ATM sell put and expecting low volatility.
- Strangle - buy call and sell put but using OTM call and puts. Lower premiums.
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Foward contracts for hedging
- Forward contracts preferred to future for currency hedgin because:
- Can be customised
- Can be created between any currency pairs
- Futures require margins which increase operational complexity
- Greater liquidity - forward market larger.
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Dynamic Hedge
- Periodic rebalancing
- Can lead to mismatched FX swap. A forward contract for one month to cover a three month postion will need to be rolled at one month and a second forward contract for two month will need to be entered.
- A dynamic hedge will keep hedge ratio close to target hedge ratio
- Higher transaction costs than static hedge
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Roll Yield
- Backwardation - forward price is below spot price. Roll return is positive to long side (speculators), and negative to short side (hedgers)
- Contango - forward price is above spot price. Roll return is positive to the short side (hedgers) but negative to the long side (speculator).
- Speculators expect prices to increase, but dont own asset. Will go long.
- Hedgers expect prices to decrease and own the asset. Will go short.
- Spot price assumed not to change. So forward price moves either up or down in relation to spot price. Would depend on interaction between hedgers and speculators.
- Roll yield can be seen as the profit or loss on a forward or future spot price is unchanged at expiration
- Calculate forward premium / discount:
Fdc/fc - Sdc/fc / Sdc/fc
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Option based hedging strategies
- EUR based investor long CHF. (risk of CHF depeciation)
- Over / underhedge forward contracts based on view of investor. If CHF expected to depreciate then overhedge, if CHF expected to appreciate then underhedge.
- Buy ATM put options. Assymetic protection limits downside risk and retains upside potential. Has a higher cost.
- Buy OTM put options - cheaper, but less downside protection
- Collar - buy OTM put, sell OTM call. Reduce costs. Limits upside potential.
- Put spread - buy OTM put, sell a deeper OTM put. Reduces cost. Reduces downside protection.
- Seagull Spread - Put spread + sell call. Reduces costs further. Downside protection same as for put spread, but more limited upside.
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Hedging Multiple Currencies
- Cross hedge / proxy hedge - a position in one assets hedges the position in another. If obvious contracts not available to short but if if two currencies are highly correlated then a proxy hedge can be created by using the other currency as a proxy. Indirect hedge.
- Macro hedge - hedge focused on whole portfolio, particularly when individual asset price movements are highly correlated. Views portfolio as a collection of risk exposures. Can use a basket of derivatives, which is less costly than hedging each instrument. Indirect hedge.
- Minimum Variance Hedge Ratio - Indirect. hedge. Uses regression analysis. To minimise tracking error between the value of the hedged asset and the hedging instrument. Not applied to a direct hedge strategy (using a foward contract). Should be re-estimated when new information becomes available.
- Basis Risk - Price movements in the exposure being hedged and the price movements in the cross hedge instrument are not prefectly correlated.
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Emerging Market Currencies
- Lower trading volume - larger bid-ask spread
- Liquidity can be lower - higher transaction cost
- Non-normal distributions more frequent
- Higher yields, leads to large foward discounts, markets in backwardation, postive roll return to the long side, but negative to short side. Higher yield - larger inflation rate.
- Contagion - correlations between countries increase, therefore diversification benefits decrease.
- Tail-risk - negative events occur more frequently.
- Government intervention
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Active strategies under assumption of a stable yield curve
- Buy and hold -Active decision to position the portfolio with longer duration and higher yield to maturity in order to generate higher returns than the benchmark. Note: Portfolio characteristics may diverge from benchmark.
- Roll down/ride the yield curve - This strategy requires an upward-sloping yield curve; the manager will buy a bond in anticipation of profiting from the price increase as the time to maturity shortens
- Sell convexity - portfolio manager could sell calls on bonds held in the portfolio, or he could sell puts on bonds he would be willing to own if, in fact, the put was exercised. Would earn additional returns in the form of option premiums. Owning MBS in a portfolio is loosely equivalent to writing options. Could also buy a callable bond.
- The carry trade -In a common carry trade, a portfolio manager borrows in the currency of a low interest rate country, converts the loan proceeds into the currency of a higher interest rate country, and invests in a higher-yielding security of that country.
Inter-market carry trades, those involving more than one currency are more varied and complex. First, the trade depends on more than one yield curve. Second, the investor must either accept or somehow hedge currency risk. Third, there may or may not be a duration mismatch.
Intra market carry trade - has interest rate risk
Inter market carry trade - has currency risk. Tend to have negative skew and fat tails. Assumes uncovered interest rate parity does not hold.
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Active strategies for yield curve movement of level, slope, and curvature
- Duration management - In its simplest form, duration management shortens portfolio duration in anticipation of rising interest rates (decreasing bond prices) and lengthens portfolio duration in anticipation of declining interest rates (increasing bond prices). Requires a manager to correctly anticipate changes in interest rates. A non-parallel shift will make this strategy less effective. Derivatives can be used to Alter Portfolio Duration
- Buy convexity. To mitigate price declines and enhance price increases. Short a callable bond. Buy options.
- Bullet and barbell structures
- Bullett is used to take advantage of a steepening yield curve—a bulleted portfolio will have little or no exposure at maturities longer or shorter than the targeted segment of the curve.
- Barbell is typically used to take advantage of a flattening yield curve. If long rates fall more than short rates (and the yield curve flattens), the portfolio’s long-duration securities will capture the benefits of the falling rates in a way that the intermediate-duration securities cannot. are typically used to take advantage of a flattening yield curve.
R24
Relative Performance of Bullets and Barbells under Different Yield Curve Scenarios
Yield Curve Scenario Barbell Bullet
Level change Parallel shift Outperforms Underperforms
Slope change Flattening Outperforms Underperforms
Steepening Underperforms Outperforms
Curvature Less curvature Underperforms Outperforms
More curvature Outperforms Underperforms
Rate volatility change Decreased Underperforms Outperforms
Increased Outperforms Underperforms
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Carry Trade Intra Market
There are at least three basic ways to implement a carry trade to exploit a stable, upward-sloping yield curve:
- Buy a bond and finance it in the repo market.
- Received fixed and pay floating on an interest rate swap.
- Take a long position in a bond (or note) futures contract.
R24
Carry Trade Inter Market
- Borrow in low rate currency, convert into a high rate currency and buy a bond denominated in this currency.
- Currency Swap - recieve payments in the high rate currency and make payments in the low rate currency.
- Borrow in high rate currency and use proceeds to buy a bond denominated in this currency. Use FX forward to convert financing position into low rate currency (buy high rate currency forward).
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Butterfly
- Combination of a barbell and bullett
- A curve trade.
- If curvature increase go long the wings (barbell and short the body (bullet). Long Butterfly
- If curvature decreases then go short butterfly
- Butterfly spread:
2 x medium yield - short term yield - long term yield
- Whether the body goes up or down indicates the direction of the curvature - increase or decrease
- Duration neutral
- Long butterfly has higher convexity and benefits from a rise in interest rate volatility
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Predicted market value change
Predicted market value change = [Portfolio par amount × (−Key rate PVBP) × Curve shift]/100.
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Benchmark Spread
The benchmark spread is a simple way to calculate a credit spread; it subtracts the yield on a recently issued benchmark-sized security with little or no credit risk (benchmark bond) of a particular maturity from the yield on a credit security. Typically, the benchmark bond is an on-the-run government bond. A problem with benchmark spread is the potential maturity mismatch between the credit security and the benchmark bond. Unless the benchmark yield curve is perfectly flat, using different benchmark bonds will produce different measures of credit spread.
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I Spread
The I-spread normally uses swap rates that are denominated in the same currency as the credit security.
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G Spread
The G-spread is the spread over an actual or interpolated government bond.
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Credit Relative Value Analysis
In the case of unchanged spreads, credit relative value analysis is essentially about weighing the unknown prospect of default losses or credit rating migration against the known compensation provided by credit spreads.
Excess return can be calculated as:
EXR ≈ (s)(t) – (Δs)(SD) – (t)(p)(L),
where EXR = Excess return, s = Spread, t = Holding period, Δs = Change in spread, SD = Spread duration, p = Expected probability of default, and L = Expected loss severity.
R24
The number of futures contracts needed to fully remove the duration gap
The number of futures contracts needed to fully remove the duration gap between the asset and liability portfolios is given by:
Nf = (BPVL − BPVA)/BPVf
where BPV is basis point value (of the liability portfolio, asset portfolio, and futures contract, respectively).
R24
Number of futures to close duration gap
The number of futures contracts needed to fully remove the duration gap between the asset and liability portfolios is given by:
Nf = BPVL−BPVA / BPVf, where BPV is basis point value (of the liability portfolio, asset portfolio, and futures contract, respectively)
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What is Credit Quality of Value Weighted Index
Compared with other weighting schemes, such as equally weighted, value-weighted indexes are tilted toward issuers with higher levels of debt. The more an issuer or sector borrows, the greater the tilt toward that issuer in the index. Leverage and creditworthiness are negatively correlated, so a value-weighted index will be more susceptible to credit quality deterioration than an equally weighted index will be
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Are Equity or Fixed Income valuation models more accurate?
Equity securities typically trade much more frequently than debt securities, so current market valuations are available. Many fixed-income securities are very illiquid, trading very infrequently. Therefore, pricing and valuation are difficult, and such estimations as matrix pricing, which are subject to error, must be used.
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Ladder vs Bullett / Barbell
(Convexity / Liquidity / Diversification)
Given the same value and duration, of the three types, the bullet portfolio would have the lowest convexity and the barbell portfolio would have the highest. The laddered portfolio would have a convexity in between the two.
A laddered portfolio would regularly buy new long-term securities to replace maturing securities on the short end. To the extent interest rates are volatile, the laddered portfolio would eventually contain a mixture (diversity) of high- and low-yielding securities. The laddered portfolio would provide better diversification over the interest rate cycle compared with the other portfolio styles.
A laddered portfolio would always have some securities with little time remaining before maturity. These would be good collateral for a repo or loan or would shortly turn into cash (upon maturity), thus providing high liquidity. The laddered portfolio would provide for better liquidity management relative to the other portfolio styles
Macaulay Duration
- Macaulay Duration
By reinvesting coupons, the time to realize the initial market discount rate on a bond should be shorter than the full maturity of the bond. The Macaulay duration is a measure of weighted average time to the receipt of the interest and principle payments that realize the original YTM. A Macaulay duration of 7 for a 10-year, 4% YTM bond means that at current market rates, it will be 7 years until the 4% YTM is achieved.
Only time Macaulay Duration is equal to maturity is with a zero coupon bond.
Modified Duration
- When rates decrease by a large amount duration will underestimate the price increase.
- When rates increase by a large amount duration will overestimate the price decrease.
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DB Pension Fund General
- Accumulated benefit obligation (ABO). - The present value of pension benefits, assuming the pension plan terminated immediately such that it had to provide retirement income to all beneficiaries for their years of service up to that date.
- Projected benefit obligation (PBO) - A measure of a pension plan’s liability that reflects accumulated service in the same manner as the ABO but also projects future variables, such as compensation increases.
- Total future liability - With respect to defined-benefit pension plans, the present value of accumulated and projected future service benefits, including the effects of projected future compensation increases.
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DB Pension Fund RISK
- Higher pension surplus or higher funded status implies greater risk tolerance.
- Lower debt ratios and higher current and expected profitability imply greater risk tolerance.
- Correlation of sponsor operating results with pension asset returns. The lower the correlation, the greater risk tolerance, all else equal.
- Provision for early retirement and provision for lump-sum distributions. Such options tend to reduce the duration of plan liabilities, implying lower risk tolerance, all else equal.
- The younger the workforce and the greater the proportion of active lives, the greater the duration of plan liabilities and the greater the risk tolerance.
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DB Pension Fund RETURN
- Fund its pension liabilities on an inflation-adjusted basis.
- If pension assets equal the present value of pension liabilities and if the rate of return earned on the assets equals the discount rate used to calculate the present value of the liabilities, then pension assets should be exactly sufficient to pay for the liabilities as they mature. Therefore, for a fully funded pension plan, the portfolio manager should determine the return requirement beginning with the discount rate used to calculate the present value of plan liabilities.
- Return desire may be higher than its return requirement
- If the plan has a young and growing workforce, the sponsor may set a more aggressive return objective than it would for a plan that is currently closed to new participants and facing heavy liquidity requirements.
- May manage investments for the active-lives portion of pension liabilities according to risk and return objectives that are distinct from those they specify for the retired-lives portion.
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DB Pension Fund LIQUIDITY
- The net cash outflow (benefit payments minus pension contributions) constitutes the pension’s plan liquidity requirement.
- 3 Main issues affecting liquidity:
- The greater the number of retired lives, the greater the liquidity requirement, all else equal.
- The smaller the corporate contributions in relation to benefit disbursements, the greater the liquidity requirement. The need to make contributions depends on the funded status of the plan. For plan sponsors that need to make regular contributions, young, growing workforces generally mean smaller liquidity requirements than older, declining workforces.
- Plan features such as the option to take early retirement and/or the option of retirees to take lump-sum payments create potentially higher liquidity needs.
- When a pension fund has substantial liquidity requirements, it may hold a buffer of cash or money market instruments to meet such needs.
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DB Pension Fund TIME HORIZON
- Overall time horizon for many going-concern DB plans is long.
- Depends on:
- whether the plan is a going concern or plan termination is expected
- the age of the workforce and the proportion of active lives. When the workforce is young and active lives predominate, and when the DB plan is open to new entrants, the plan’s time horizon is longer.
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DB Pension Fund TAX
- Investment income and realized capital gains within private defined-benefit pension plans are usually exempt from taxation
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DB Pension Fund LEGAL REGULATORY
- All retirement plans are governed by laws and regulations that affect investment policy.
- United States, corporate plans and multi-employer plans are governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA)
- The institutional practitioner to understand and apply the law and regulations of the entity having jurisdiction when developing investment polic
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DB Pension Fund UNIQUE
- Investment in alternative investments often requires complex due diligence
- Self-imposed constraint against investing in certain industries viewed as having negative ethical or welfare connotations, or in shares of companies operating in countries with regimes against which some ethical objection has been raised.
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DC Pensions
- participant-directed v sponsor-directed plan [similar to DB]
- The principal investment issues for DC plans are as follows:
- Diversification - sponsor must offer a menu of investment options that allows participants to construct suitable portfolios.
- Company Stock -oldings of sponsor-company stock should be limited to allow participants’ wealth to be adequately diversified.
- An IPS for a participant-directed DC plan is the governing document that describes the investment strategies and alternatives available to the group of plan participants characterized by diverse objectives and constraints.
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Hybrid Pensions
- 2 main types - cash balance and ESOP
- Cash Balance:
- employer bears the investment risk
- To employee it looks like a DC plan because they are provided a personalized statement showing their account balance, an annual contribution credit, and an earnings credit
- Traditional DB plans that have been converted in order to gain some of the features of a DC plan.
- Unfair to older workers - “grandfather” clause
- ESOP:
- DC plans that invest all or the majority of plan assets in employer stock.
- Have been used by companies to liquidate a large block of company stock held by an individual or small group of people, avoid a public offering of stock, or discourage an unfriendly takeover by placing a large holding of stock in the hands of employees via the ESOP trust.
- An important concern for ESOP participants is that their overall investments (both financial and human capital) reflect adequate diversification.
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Independent foundation (private or family)
- Independent foundation (private or family)
- Independent grant-making organization established to aid social, educational, charitable, or religious activities.
- Generally an individual, family, or group of individuals are source of funds
- Donor, members of donor’s family, or independent trustees make decisions
- At least 5% of 12-month average asset value, plus expenses associated with generating investment return.
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Company-sponsored foundation
- Company-sponsored foundation
- A legally independent grant-making organization with close ties to the corporation providing funds.
- Endowment and/or annual contributions from a profit-making corporation are source of funds
- Board of trustees, usually controlled by the sponsoring corporation’s executives make decisions
- Same as independent foundation.
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Operating foundation
- Organization that uses its resources to conduct research or provide a direct service (e.g., operate a museum).
- Largely the same as independent foundation. Source of funds from profit making corporation
- Independent board of directors make decisions
- Must use 85% of interest and dividend income for active conduct of the institution’s own programs. Some are also subject to annual spending requirement equal to 3.33% of assets.
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Community foundation
- A publicly supported organization that makes grants for social, educational, charitable, or religious purposes. A type of public charity.
- Multiple donors; the public provide funds
- Board of directors make decisions
- No spending requirement.
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Foundations: RISK
- Foundations can have a higher risk tolerance.
- Pension funds have a contractually defined liability stream in contrast, foundations have no such defined liability
- It is also acceptable, if risky, for foundations to try to earn a higher rate of return than is needed to maintain the purchasing power of assets
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Foundations: RETURN
- Some foundations are meant to be short lived; others are intended to operate in perpetuity.
- For those foundations with an indefinitely long horizon, the long-term return objective is to preserve the real (inflation-adjusted) value of the investment assets while allowing spending at an appropriate (either statutory or decided-upon) rate
- Intergenerational equity or neutrality - an equitable balance between the interests of current and future beneficiaries of the foundation’s support.
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Foundations: LIQUIDITY
- Anticipated or unanticipated needs for cash in excess of contributions made to the foundation.
- Smoothing rule - With respect to spending rates, a rule that averages asset values over a period of time in order to dampen the spending rate’s response to asset value fluctuation.
- It is prudent for any organization to keep some assets in cash as a reserve for contingencies, but private and family foundations need a cash reserve for a special reason: They are subject to the unusual requirement that spending in a given fiscal year be 5 percent or more of the 12-month average of asset values in that year.
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Foundations: TIME HORIZON
- The majority of foundation wealth resides in private and other foundations established or managed with the intent of lasting into perpetuity.
- Some institutions, however, are created to be “spent down” over a predefined period of time; therefore, they pursue a different strategy, exhibiting an increasing level of conservatism as time passes.
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Foundations: TAX CONCERNS
- unrelated business income will be subject to regular corporate tax rates
- Income from real estate is taxable as unrelated business income if the property is debt financed, but only in proportion to the fraction of the property’s cost financed with debt.
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Foundations: LEGAL REGULATORY
- Foundations may be subject to a variety of legal and regulatory constraints.
- In the United States, many states have adopted the Uniform Management of Institutional Funds Act (UMIFA) as the primary legislation governing any entity organized and operated exclusively for educational, religious, or charitable purposes.
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Foundations: UNIQUE
- A special challenge faces foundations that are endowed with the stock of one particular company and that are then restricted by the donor from diversifying.
- With the permission of the donor, some institutions have entered into swap agreements or other derivative transactions to achieve the payoffs of a more diversified portfolio.
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Endowments: General
- Provide a significant amount of budgetary support for universities, colleges, private schools, hospitals, museums, and religious organizations.
- Legally and formally, however, the term “endowment” refers to a permanent fund established by a donor with the condition that the fund principal be maintained over time. In contrast to private foundations, endowments are not subject to a specific legally required spending level.
- Generally are exempt from taxation on investment income derived from interest, dividends, capital gains, rents, and royalties.
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Endowments: Spending Rules
- Spending is typically calculated as a percentage, usually between 4 percent and 6 percent of endowment market value (endowments are not subject to minimum spending rates as are private foundations in the United States).
- Frequently use an average of trailing market values rather than the current market value to provide greater stability in the amount of money distributed annually
- One problem with this rule is that it places as much significance on market values three years ago as it does on more recent outcomes
- A more refined rule might use a geometrically declining average of trailing endowment values adjusted for inflation, placing more emphasis on recent market values and less on past values.
- 3 possible spending rules:
- Simple spending rule. Spending equals the spending rate multiplied by the market value of the endowment at the beginning of the fiscal year.
- Rolling three-year average spending rule. Spending equals the spending rate multiplied by the average market value of the last three fiscal year-ends.
- Geometric smoothing rule. Spending equals the weighted average of the prior year’s spending adjusted for inflation and the product of the spending rate times the market value of the endowment at the beginning of the prior fiscal year. The smoothing rate is typically between 60 and 80 percent.
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Endowments: RISK
- Spending policies with smoothing or averaging rules can dampen the transmission of portfolio volatility to spending distributions.
- If the same market forces affect both its donor base and its endowment, an institution that relies heavily on donations for current income may see donations drop at the same time as endowment income
- On a short-term basis, an endowment’s risk tolerance can be greater if the endowment has experienced strong recent returns and the smoothed spending rate is below the long-term average or target rate.
- On the other hand, endowment funds with poor recent returns and a smoothed spending rate above the long-term average run the risk of a severe loss in purchasing power.
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Endowments: RETURN
- Endowment funds should maintain their long-term purchasing power after inflation.
- An endowment’s returns need to exceed the spending rate to protect against a long-term loss of purchasing power.
- Endowments are not subject to specific payout requirements.
- Can use a smoothing rule, to dampen the effects of portfolio volatility on spending distributions.
- Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the effect of investment and spending policies on the likelihood that an endowment will provide a stable and sustainable flow of operating funds for an institution.
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Endowments: LIQUIDITY
- The perpetual nature and measured spending of true endowments limit their need for liquidity.
- In general, endowments are well suited to invest in illiquid, non-marketable securities given their limited need for liquidit
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Endowments: TIME HORIZON
- Endowment time horizons are extremely long term because of the objective of maintaining purchasing power in perpetuity.
- Annual draws for spending, however, may present important short-term considerations
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Endowments: TAX
- Taxes are not a major consideration for endowments
- Unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) from operating businesses or from assets with acquisition indebtedness may be subject to tax.
- A portion of dividends from non-US securities may be subject to withholding taxes that cannot be reclaimed or credited against US taxes.
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Endowments: LEGAL REGULATORY
- UMIFA
- To achieve and maintain tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3) of the US Internal Revenue Code, an institution must ensure that no part of its net earnings inure or accrue to the benefit of any private individual
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Endowments: UNIQUE
- Vary widely in their size, governance, and staff resources, and thus in the investment strategies that they can intelligently and practically pursue
- Endowments should have significant resources and expertise before investing in nontraditional asset classes.
- Some endowed institutions develop ethical investment policies that become constraints to help ensure that portfolio investment activity is consistent with the organization’s goals and mores.
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Life Insurance: General
- Risk of disintermediation, which often becomes acute when interest rates are high
- Exposure to interest-rate-related risk is one major characteristic of life insurers’ investment setting.
- When interest rates are high there is the risk that policyholders will surrender their cash value life insurance policies for their accumulated cash values, in order to reinvest the proceeds at a higher interest rate
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Life Insurance: RISK
- Conservative fiduciary principles limit the risk tolerance of an insurance company investment portfolio.
- Valuation concerns. In a period of changing interest rates, a mismatch between the duration of an insurance company’s assets and that of its liabilities can lead to erosion of surplus
- Reinvestment risk
- Credit risk
- Cash flow volatility. Loss of income or delays in collecting and reinvesting cash flow from investments is another key aspect of risk for which life insurance companies have low tolerance.
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Life Insurance: RETURN
- minimum return requirement.
- The insurer desires to earn a positive net interest spread, and return objectives may include a desired net interest spread
- Consistently above-average investment returns should and do provide an insurance company with some competitive advantage in setting premiums
- Segmentation of insurance company portfolios has promoted the establishment of sub-portfolio return objectives to promote competitive crediting rates for groups of contracts.
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Life Insurance: LIQUIDITY
- insurers may be forced to sell bonds at a loss to meet surrenders of insurance policies in periods of sharply rising interest rates.
- Disintermediation - In a period of rising interest rates, a mismatch between the duration of an insurance company’s assets and its liabilities can create a net loss if the assets’ duration exceeds that of the liabilities. If disintermediation occurs concurrently, the insurer may need to sell assets at a realized loss to meet liquidity needs. Thus, an asset/liability mismatch can exacerbate the effects of disintermediation.
- Asset marketability risk - The marketability of investments is important to insure ample liquidity.
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Life Insurance: TIME HORIZON
- Life insurance companies have long been considered the classic long-term investor.
- One reason that life insurance companies have traditionally segmented their portfolios is the recognition that particular product lines or lines of business have unique time horizons and return objectives.
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Life Insurance: TAX
- Subject to income, capital gains, and other types of taxes in the countries where they operate
- Life insurance companies’ investment income can be divided into two parts for tax purposes: the policyholders’ share (that portion relating to the actuarially assumed rate necessary to fund reserves) and the corporate share (the balance that is transferred to surplus). Under present US law, only the latter portion is taxed.
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Life Insurance: LEGAL REGULATORY
- Insurance is a heavily regulated industry
- Eligible investments. Insurance laws determine the classes of assets eligible for investment and may specify the quality standards for each asset class.
- Prudent investor rule. Replacing traditional “laundry lists” of approved investments with prudent investor logic simplifies the regulatory process and allows life insurance companies much needed flexibility to keep up with the ever-changing array of investment alternatives.
- Valuation methods. In the European Union, International Accounting Standards specify a set of valuation procedures. In the United States, uniform valuation methods are established and administered by the NAIC.
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Life Insurance: UNIQUE
- Each insurance company, whether life or non-life, may have unique circumstances attributable to factors other than the insurance products it provides.
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NON-Life Insurance: General
- Non-life liability durations tend to be shorter, and claim processing and payments periods are longer, than for life companies;
- Some (but not all) non-life liabilities are exposed to inflation risk, although liabilities are not directly exposed to interest rate risk as those of life insurance companies
- A life insurance company’s liabilities are relatively certain in value but uncertain in timing, while a non-life insurance company’s liabilities are relatively uncertain in both value and timing, with the result that non-life insurance companies are exposed to more volatility in their operating results.
- One of the primary factors that limits the duration of a non-life company’s assets is the so-called underwriting (profitability) cycle, generally averaging three to five years.
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NON-Life Insurance: RISK
- Cash flow characteristics. Not surprisingly, cash flows from casualty insurance operations can be quite erratic. Have low tolerance for loss of principal or diminishing investment income. Investment maturities and investment income must be predictable in order to directly offset the unpredictability of operating trends.
- Common stock to surplus ratio. Many casualty companies have adopted self-imposed limitations restricting common stocks at market value to some significant but limited portion (frequently one-half to three-quarters) of total surplus
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NON-Life Insurance: RETURN
- Competitive policy pricing. Low insurance policy premium rates, due to competition, provide an incentive for insurance companies to set high desired investment return objectives. The flip side is that high investment returns may induce insurance companies to lower their policy rates, even though a high level of returns cannot be sustained. I
- Profitability. Casualty insurance portfolios are managed to maximize return on capital and surplus to the extent that prudent asset/liability management, surplus adequacy considerations, and management preferences will allow.
- Growth of surplus. An important function of a casualty company’s investment operation is to provide growth of surplus, which in turn provides the opportunity to expand the volume of insurance the company can write.
- Tax considerations. Over the years, non-life insurance companies’ investment results have been very sensitive to the after-tax return on the bond portfolio and to the tax benefits of certain kinds of investment returns.
- Total return management. Active bond portfolio management strategies designed to achieve total return, rather than yield or investment income goals only, have gained popularity among casualty insurance companies, especially large ones
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NON-Life Insurance: LIQUIDITY
- Liquidity has always been a paramount consideration for non-life companies.
- Quite often it maintains a portfolio of short-term securities, such as commercial paper or Treasury bills, as an immediate liquidity reserve.
- may also hold a portfolio of readily marketable government bonds of various maturities
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NON-Life Insurance: TIME HORIZON
- Durations of casualty liabilities are typically shorter than those of life insurance liabilities.
- Casualty companies find that they must invest in longer maturities (15 to 30 years) than the typical life company to optimize the yield advantage offered by tax-exempt securities
- In terms of common stock investments, casualty companies historically have been long-term investors
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NON-Life Insurance: TAX
- A very important factor in determining casualty insurance companies’ investment policy
- A computer model is generally needed to determine the appropriate asset allocation, if any, between tax-exempt and taxable securities for both new purchases and existing holdings
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NON-Life Insurance: LEGAL REGULATORY
- Casualty company investment regulation is relatively permissive
- A casualty company is not required to maintain an asset valuation reserve.
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NON-Life Insurance: UNIQUE
- Casualty insurance companies develop a significant portfolio of stocks and bonds and generate a high level of income to supplement or offset insurance underwriting gains and losses.
- Casualty companies seek some degree of safety from the assets offsetting insurance reserves
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NON-Life Insurance: Variation in returns between companies
- the latitude permitted by insurance regulations;
- differences in product mix, and thus in the duration of liabilities;
- a particular company’s tax position;
- the emphasis placed on capital appreciation versus the income component of investment return; and
- the strength of the company’s capital and surplus positions.
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Banks: General
- Banks’ liabilities consist chiefly of time and demand deposits but also include purchased funds and sometimes publicly traded debt
- Measures ALCO monitor:
- net interest margin -With respect to banks, net interest income (interest income minus interest expense) divided by average earning assets.
- interest spread - With respect to banks, the average yield on earning assets minus the average percent cost of interest-bearing liabilities.
- leverage-adjusted duration gap - A leverage-adjusted measure of the difference between the durations of assets and liabilities which measures a bank’s overall interest rate exposure.
- Value at Risk (VaR)
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Banks: Role of bank’s securities portfolio
- To manage overall interest rate risk of the balance sheet. Bank-held securities are negotiable instruments trading in generally liquid markets that can be bought and sold quickly. Therefore, securities are the natural adjustment mechanism for interest rate risk
- To manage liquidity. Banks use their securities portfolios to assure adequate cash is available to them.
- To produce income. Banks’ securities portfolios frequently account for a quarter or more of total revenue.
- To manage credit risk. The securities portfolio is used to modify and diversify the overall credit risk exposure to a desired level
- Bank’s security portfolios consist almost exclusively of fixed-income securities.
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Banks: RISK
- Dominated by ALM considerations that focus on funding liabilities. Therefore, risk relative to liabilities, rather than absolute risk, is of primary concern
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Banks: RETURN
- A bank’s return objectives for its securities portfolio are driven by the need to earn a positive return on invested capital. For the interest-income part of return, the portfolio manager pursues this objective by attempting to earn a positive spread over the cost of funds.
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Banks: LIQUIDITY
- A bank’s liquidity position is a key management and regulatory concern. Liquidity requirements are determined by net outflows of deposits, if any, as well as demand for loans.
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Banks: TIME HORIZON
- A bank’s time horizon for its securities portfolio reflects its need to manage interest rate risk while earning a positive return on invested capital. A bank’s liability structure typically reflects an overall shorter maturity than its loan portfolio, placing a risk management constraint on the time horizon length for its securities portfolio. This time horizon generally falls in the three- to seven-year range (intermediate term).
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Banks: TAX
- Banks’ securities portfolios are fully taxable.
- Realized securities losses decrease reported operating income, while securities gains increase reported operating income. According to some observers, this accounting treatment creates an incentive not to sell securities showing unrealized losses, providing a mechanism by which earnings can be managed.
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Banks: LEGAL REGULATORY
- Regulations place restrictions on banks’ holdings of common shares and below-investment-grade risk fixed-income securities.
- Risk-based capital (RBC) regulations are a major regulatory development worldwide affecting banks’ risk-taking incentives.- BASAL.
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Banks: UNIQUE
- There are no common unique circumstances to highlight relative to banks’ securities investment activities. That situation stands in contrast to banks’ lending activities, in which banks may consider factors such as historical banking relationships and community needs, which may be viewed as unique circumstances.
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Active Return
- The portfolio’s return in excess of the return on the portfolio’s benchmark.
- (Rp-Rb)
- Benefits of active management
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3 sources of Active Return
- Strategic or long term exposures to rewarded factors (size,value, growth, market risk (beta))
- Tactical exposture to mispriced sectors, securities and rewarded factors that generate alpha
- Idiosyncratic risk - returns generated by luck
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3 Building Blocks Used in Equity Portfolio Construction
- Factor Weightings (Active return due to beta differences with portfolio and benchmark). Underweight / overweighting rewarded risk factors.
- Alpha Skills (factor timing). active returns arising from skillful timing of exposure to rewarded factors, unrewarded factors (e.g. region exposure, industry sector), or even other asset classes (such as cash) constitute a manager’s alpha—the second building block.
- Position Sizing (diversification vs concentration). The stock picker with high confidence in her analysis of individual securities may be willing to assume high levels of idiosyncratic risk. On the other hand, a manager focused on creating balanced exposures to rewarded factors is unlikely to assume a high level of idiosyncratic risk and is, therefore, quite likely to construct a highly diversified portfolio of individual securities.
- Need to integrate this blocks with breadth of expertise
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Fundamental law: expected active portfolio return E(RA)
E(RA) = IC√BRσRATC
where
IC = Expected information coefficient of the manager—the extent to which a manager’s forecasted active returns correspond to the managers realized active returns
BR = Breadth—the number of truly independent decisions made each year. Higher breadth = higher active returns. Looking at multiple factors will lead to higher breadth.
TC = Transfer coefficient, or the ability to translate portfolio insights into investment decisions without constraint (a truly unconstrained portfolio would have a transfer coefficient of 1)
σRA = the manager’s active risk
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Approaches to Active Equity Portfolio Construction
- Systematic - following rules. Seek to reduce exposure to idiosyncratic risk and often use broadly diversified portfolios to achieve the desired factor exposure while minimizing security-specific risk. Typically more adaptable to a formal portfolio optimization process.
- Discretionary -generally more concentrated portfolios, reflecting the depth of the manager’s insights on company characteristics and the competitive landscape.
- Bottom up - may embrace such styles as Value, Growth at Reasonable Price, Momentum, and Quality.
- Top Down - contains an important element of factor timing. is Likely to run a portfolio concentrated with respect to macro factor exposures
- Portfolio construction can be seen as an optimisation problem.
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Summary of the Different Approaches
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Active Risk
- The annualized standard deviation of active returns, also referred to as tracking error (also sometimes called tracking risk).
- Active risk is affected by the degree of cross correlation, but Active Share is not.
- A portfolio manager can completely control Active Share, but she cannot completely control active risk because active risk depends on the correlations and variances of securities that are beyond her control
- The active risk of a portfolio is a function of the variance attributed to the factor exposure and of the variance attributed to the idiosyncratic risk .
- High net exposure to a risk factor will lead to a high level of active risk, irrespective of the level of idiosyncratic risk;
- If the factor exposure is fully neutralized, the active risk will be entirely attributed to Active Share;
- The active risk attributed to Active Share will be smaller if the number of securities is large and/or average idiosyncratic risk is small;
- the level of active risk will rise with an increase in factor and idiosyncratic volatility
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Active Share
- It measures the extent to which the number and sizing positions in a manager’s portfolio differ from the benchmark.
- Two sources of active share:
- Including securities in the portfolio that are not in the benchmark
- Holding securities in the portfolio that are in the benchmark but at weights different than the benchmark weights
- 0.5∑[Weightportfolio,i−Weightbenchmark,i]
- 1 - active share = % overlap between portfolio and benchmark
- Value from 0 to 1
- Will be 0 when weights in portfolio and benchmark the same
- Will be 1 when weights in portfolio and benchmark are all different
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Effective risk management process
- Determine which type of risk measure is appropriate given the fund mandate.
- Absolute risk measures are appropriate when the investment objective is expressed in terms of total returns (e.g., total volatility of portfolio returns).
- Relative risk measures are appropriate when the investment objective is to outperform a market index.
- Understand how each aspect of the strategy contributes to overall risk.
* Does risk come from exposure to rewarded factors or allocations to sectors/securities? - Determine what level of risk budget is appropriate.
* This is the overall level of risk targeted. - Properly allocate risk among individual positions/factors.
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Causes and Sources of Absolute Risk
- The contribution of an asset to total portfolio variance is equal to the product of the weight of the asset and its covariance with the entire portfolio
- CV i= ∑ = xixjCij = xiCip
xj = the asset’s weight in the portfolio
Cij = the covariance of returns between asset i and asset j
Cip = the covariance of returns between asset i and the portfolio
- “assets” might also be sectors, countries, or pools of assets representing risk factors (Value versus Growth, Small versus Large)
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Causes and Sources of Relative/Active Risk
- Relative risk becomes an appropriate measure when the manager is concerned with her performance relative to a benchmark.
- The contribution of each asset to the portfolio active variance (CAVi) is:
CAVi = (xi−bi)RCip
xi = the asset’s weight in the portfolio
bi = the benchmark weight in asset i
RCij = the covariance of relative returns between asset i and asset j
- Adding up the contributions for active variance (CAVi) for all assets in the portfolio produces the variance of the portfolios active return.
- Can be done on a factor level
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Risk Constraints
- Heuristic Constraints e.g. portfolio must have a weighted average capitalization less than 75% of that of the index; portfolio’s carbon footprint must be limited to no more than 75% of the benchmark’s exposure.
- Formal Constraints e.g Volatility, Active risk, VaR, Skewness, Drawdowns.
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Long-Only Investing
- Can take long positions
- choice of whether to pursue a long-only strategy or some variation of a long/short strategy is likely to be influenced by several considerations:
- Long-term risk premiums
- Capacity and scale (the ability to invest assets, liquidity)
- Limited legal liability and risk appetite. Long only will only lose the amount invested. Short sellers losses can be unlimited - stock could go up indefinetly
- Regulatory constraints. Some countries ban short selling.
- Transactional complexity. Long -only transactions simple.
- Management costs. Long-only is less expensive.
- Personal ideology - morally wrong to short? Unwilling to use risk.
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Long-Short Investing
- Net exposure is 0
- Equal number of long and short positions
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Long Extension Portfolio Construction
- A hybrid of long-only and long/short strategies.
- A 130/30 strategy builds a portfolio of long positions worth 130% of the wealth invested in the strategy—that is, 1.3 times the amount of capital. At the same time, the portfolio holds short positions worth 30% of capital
- This strategy offers the opportunity to magnify total returns
- Could also lead to greater losses if the manager is simultaneously wrong on both his long and short picks.
- Beta not zero - more equal to 1.
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Market-Neutral Portfolio Construction
- Dollar neutral is not the same thing as market neutral, because the economic drivers of returns for the long side may not be the same as the economic drivers for the short side.
- True market-neutral strategies hedge out most market risk
- A simple example of zero-beta investment would be a fund that is long $100 of assets with a Market beta of 1 and short $80 of assets with a Market beta of 1.25
- The main constraint is that in aggregate, the targeted beta(s) of the portfolio be zero.
- Seek to remove major sources of systematic risk from a portfoli
- Use of pairs trading or statistical arbitrage
- Market-neutral strategies have two inherent limitations:
- It is no easy task to maintain a beta of zero
- Market-neutral strategies have a limited upside in a bull market unless they are “equitized.” Some investors, therefore, choose to index their equity exposure and overlay long/short strategies.
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Benefits of Long/Short Strategies
- Ability to more fully express short ideas than under a long-only strategy
- Efficient use of leverage and of the benefits of diversification
- Greater ability to calibrate/control exposure to factors (such as Market and other rewarded factors), sectors, geography, or any undesired exposure (such as, perhaps, sensitivity to the price of oil)
- Short positions can reduce market risk.
- Shorting potentially expands benefits from other risk premiums and alpha.
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Drawbacks of Long/Short Strategies
- Unlike a long position, a short position will move against the manager if the price of the security increases.
- Long/short strategies sometimes require significant leverage. Leverage must be used wisely.
- The cost of borrowing a security can become prohibitive, particularly if the security is hard to borrow.
- Collateral requirements will increase if a short position moves against the manager. In extreme cases, the manager may be forced to liquidate some favorably ranked long positions (and short positions that might eventually reverse) if too much leverage has been used. The manager may also fall victim to a short squeeze. A short squeeze is a situation in which the price of the stock that has been shorted has risen so much and so quickly that many short investors may be unable to maintain their positions in the short run in light of the increased collateral requirements.
- Lender can call back shares at any time
- Shorting may amplify the active risk.
- Short positions might reduce the market return premium.
- There are higher implementation costs and greater complexity associated with shorting and leverage relative to a long-only approach.
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Slippage
- Slippage is the difference between execution price and mid point of the bid and ask quotes
- Slippage costs usually more important than commission costs
- slippage costs greater for small cap than large cap
- slippage costs not necessarily greater in emerging markets
- Slippage costs can vary over time, especially when market volatility is higher.
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Human Capital, Financial Capital, Economic Balance Sheet
- Human Capital - An implied asset; the net present value of an investor’s future expected labor income weighted by the probability of surviving to each future age. Also called net employment capital.
- Financial Capital - The tangible and intangible assets (excluding human capital) owned by an individual or household.
- Economic Balance Sheet - A balance sheet that provides an individual’s total wealth portfolio, supplementing traditional balance sheet assets with human capital and pension wealth, and expanding liabilities to include consumption and bequest goals. Also known as holistic balance sheet.
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Comparing Financial and Human Capital
Human capital is commonly defined as the mortality-weighted net present value of an individual’s future expected labor income. Financial capital includes the tangible and intangible assets (outside of human capital) owned by an individual or household.
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Net Wealth
The difference between an individual’s assets and liabilities; extends traditional financial assets and liabilities to include human capital and future consumption needs.
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4 Key Steps in Risk Management Process
- Specify the objective.
- Identify risks.
- Evaluate risks and select appropriate methods to manage the risks.
- Monitor outcomes and risk exposures and make appropriate adjustments in methods.
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4 Risk Techniques
- Risk Avoidance
- Risk Reduction
- Risk Transfer
- Risk Retention
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Financial Stages of Life
- Education phase - could benefit from products, such as life insurance, that hedge against the risk of losing human capital.
- Early career - Human capital represents such a large proportion of total wealth.Use of life insurance. 18 - 30’s.
- Career development - 35–50 age range. Retirement saving tends to increase.
- Peak accumulation - ages of 51–60. Emphasize income production for retirement and become increasingly concerned about minimizing taxes, given higher levels of wealth and income
- Pre-retirement - typically represents an individual’s maximum career income. May consider investments that are less volatile. There is further emphasis on tax planning
- Early retirement - 10 years of retirement. use resources to produce activities that provide enjoyment. Some retirees seek a new career. Need for asset growth does not disappear
- Late retirement - unpredictable because the exact length of retirement is unknown. Longevity risk. Cognitive decline can present a risk of financial mistakes, which may be hedged through the participation of a trusted financial adviser or through the use of annuities.
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Traditional vs. Economic Balance Sheet
A traditional balance sheet includes assets and liabilities that are generally relatively easy to quantify. An economic balance sheet provides a useful overview of one’s total wealth portfolio by supplementing traditional balance sheet assets with human capital and pension wealth and including additional liabilities, such as consumption and bequest goals.
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Changes in Human and Financial Capital
The total value of human capital and the total value of financial capital tend to be inversely related over time as individuals attempt to smooth consumption through borrowing, saving, and eventual spending. When human capital becomes depleted, without financial capital, an individual will have no wealth to fund his or her lifestyle. Human capital is generally largest for a younger individual, whereas financial capital is generally largest when an individual first retires.
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6 Individual Risk Exposures
- Earnings risk - The risk associated with the earning potential of an individual. Loss or reduction of earnings and may also include the loss of employer contributions to one’s retirement fund. The loss of income represents a reduction in both human and financial capital.
- Premature Death Risk - The risk of an individual dying earlier than anticipated; sometimes referred to as mortality risk. Effecton human and financial capital. Death expenses (including funeral and burial), transition expenses, estate settlement expenses, and the possible need for training or education for the surviving spouse may be needed
- Longevity risk - Financial planners often run a Monte Carlo simulation. Insufficient assets may exacerbate the situation and many pension programs do not consider inflation. Individual may choose to work longer.
- Liability Risk - individual or household may be held legally liable for the financial costs associated with property damage or physical injury. May affect the individual’s financial and/or human capital.
- Health Risk - risks and implications associated with illness or injury. Significant implications for human capital as well as for financial capital. An added risk is that inflation in long-term care costs (i.e., medical costs) has historically been higher than base inflation.
- Property Risk - a person’s property may be damaged, destroyed, stolen, or lost. Direct loss refers to the monetary value of the loss associated with the property itself. Indirect loss are expenses incurred asa resultof direct loss. Because property represents a financial asset, property risk is normally considered to be associated with a potential loss of financial capital. But property used in a business to create income is rightfully considered in a discussion of human capital.