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FINALS_TROPICAL > CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS > Flashcards

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Flashcards

1
Q

A _______ is a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

A

climate scenario

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2
Q

Climate scenarios often make use of ________ (descriptions of the modelled response of the climate system to scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations), by manipulating model outputs and combining them with observed climate data.

A

climate projections

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3
Q

Future climate patterns are difficult to predict because it depends on many assumptions and uncertain factors such as:

A
  • population growth
  • the use of carbon fuel as an energy source
  • technological development
  • economic development
  • policies and attitudes towards environment
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4
Q

Climate scenarios often make use of climate projections, by manipulating model outputs and combining them with observed _________.

A

climate data

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5
Q

The climate data or climatological information required by impact analysts varies enormously depending on types of studies. Some factors to consider are the following which are extracted from the IPCC General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (IPCC-TGICA 2007):

A
  • VARIABLES
  • SPATIAL SCALES
  • TEMPORAL RESOLUTION
  • EXTREME EVENTS
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6
Q
  • The climate variables required are dependent on the impact models used.
A

VARIABLES

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7
Q

VARIABLES: The climate variables required are dependent on the impact models used. The most common variables in impact studies are:

A

a. surface observations of air temperature and
b. precipitation
c. solar radiation
d. humidity
e. windspeed
f. soil temperature
g. snow cover

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8
Q

Certain climate scenario construction procedures (e.g., statistical downscaling from general circulation model, or GCM, outputs) requires specific variables, such as:

A

a. daily air pressure data
b. mean sea-level pressure

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9
Q

Some indices may be useful for identifying important large-scale climatic variations such as the __________ (related to El Niño events).

A

Southern Oscillation Index

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10
Q

Relative _______ is useful for climate change impact assessment of coastal zones.

A

sea-level rise

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11
Q

_______ required depends on the objective of modelling and technical factors in the modelling such as the coverage area, quality of source data, and terrain condition.

A

Spatial scale

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12
Q

Spatial scale: The required climate information or data may be for:

A

a. single site (e.g., for assessing crop response to climate),
b. region (e.g., for modelling surface water distribution over a large water catchment),
c. the whole globe (e.g., for modelling changes in geographical life-zone distribution).

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13
Q

TEMPORAL RESOLUTION: Temporal resolution may range from:

A

a. annual
b. seasonal
c. monthly
d. daily
e. hourly

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14
Q

n some cases, long-term averages may _____ (e.g., for mapping vegetation distribution) but in some impact studies daily time series are ________ (e.g., for simulating land slide mechanism in relation to rainfall).

A

suffice; essential

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15
Q
  • Studies of disasters often require knowledge of the probabilistic distribution of extremes in a certain period of time and area at risk, usually for estimating the risk of climate related disasters such as storm surges, droughts and forest and land fires.
A

EXTREME EVENTS

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16
Q

________ describe some pathway that emissions will take over time. As emissions are fed into the climate models, the model will help us determine what will likely happened in future in terms of temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation based on the inputted emissions.

A

Emission scenarios

17
Q

Emission scenarios possible pathways that society might take in the the _____ of _____ in the future.

A

emission; greenhouse gases

18
Q

There are two main approaches in emission scenarios as prescribed by IPCC:

A

➢ Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of 2000
➢ Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), 2014

19
Q

SRES means

A

Special Report on Emission Scenarios

20
Q
  • developed by IPCC, can give the range of plausible future climate.
  • These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines.
  • They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways.
A

Special Report on Emission Scenarios

21
Q

Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) -
provides a broad range of scenarios incorporating various _______ and ______ factors

A

socioeconomic; technological

22
Q

four different storylines (__, ___, ___, and ___) as defined in the IPCC SRES

A

A1, A2, B1 and B2

23
Q

Very rapid economic growth population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate

A

A1

24
Q

A1 subdivisions:

A

a. AF1
b. A1T
c. A1B

25
Q
  • reliance on fossil fuel
A

AF1

26
Q
  • reliance on non-fossil fuels
A

A1T

27
Q
  • a balanced across all fossil fuel sources
A

A1B

28
Q
  • self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; economic growth on regional scales
A

A2

29
Q
  • clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic growth on regional scales
A

B1

30
Q
  • local solution to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change in B1 and A1
A

B2

31
Q

RCP means

A

Representative Concentration Pathway

32
Q

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) - primarily focus on ________ concentrations and _______ forcing

A

greenhouse gas; radiative

33
Q

Rather than defining the stories first, the ______ defines the GHG trajectories first, then define what human responses corresponds to those trajectories

A

RCP

34
Q

Rather than defining the stories first, the RCP defines the _______ first, then define what human responses corresponds to those trajectories.

A

GHG trajectories

35
Q

There are four trajectories starting from historical data. The factors for changes in RFA include:

A

a. predictive solar output,
b. all GHGs that affect energy flows, c. the use of aerosol and black carbon,
d. snow, l
e. and use change, and others.

36
Q

_________ is the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. This power, and thus the difference, is measured in watts per meter squared.

A

Radiative forcing

37
Q

Power coming into Earth - Power leaving the Earth =______

A

Radiative Forcing Amount

38
Q

Changes that have a warming effect are called “______” forcing

A

positive

39
Q

changes that have a cooling effect are called “______” forcing

A

negative

FINALS_TROPICAL (5 decks)

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