CHAPTER V: CLIMATE SCENARIOS Flashcards
A _______________ is a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
climate scenario
Future climate patterns are difficult to predict because it depends on many assumptions and uncertain factors such as:
- population growth
- the use of carbon fuel as an energy source
- technological development
- economic development
- policies and attitudes towards environment
Climate scenarios often make use of _____________________, by manipulating model outputs and combining them with observed climate data
climate projections
The ___________________________________ required by impact analysts varies enormously depending on types of studies. Some factors to consider are the following which are extracted from the IPCC General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment
climate data or climatological information
The climate data or climatological information required by impact analysts varies enormously depending on types of studies. Some factors to consider are the following which are extracted from the ___________________________________________.
IPCC General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment
- factors that are subject to variation or changes
Variables
Example of variables:
- air temperature
- precipitation
- solar radiation
- humidity
- windspeed
- soil temperature
- snow cover
- mean sea-level pressure
In spatial scales, the required climate information or data may be for a:
- single site
- region
- whole globe
required depends on the objective of modelling and technical factors in the modelling such as the coverage area, quality of source data, and terrain condition.
SPATIAL SCALES
Temporal resolution may range from:
- annual
- seasonal
- monthly
- daily
- hourly
In some cases, long-term averages may suffice (e.g., for mapping vegetation distribution) but in some impact studies daily time series are essential (e.g., for simulating land slide mechanism in relation to rainfall).
Temporal resolution
Studies of disasters often require knowledge of the probabilistic distribution of extremes in a certain period of time and area at risk, usually for estimating the risk of climate related disasters such as storm surges, droughts and forest and land fires
EXTREME EVENTS
possible pathways that society might take in the the emission of greenhouse gases in the future.
Emission scenarios
This approach starts by guessing the economic, political, and cultural changes and you estimate how those changes will alter the forcings our society produces
Bottom-up approach
Emission scenarios can also refer to _________________.
Emission pathways
There are two main approaches in emission scenarios as prescribed by IPCC:
- Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of 2000
- Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), 2014
This storyline describes a future world of rapid economic growth, with a global population that peaks in the mid 2000’s and declines afterwards.
A1
The A1 storyline is also split into 3 further groups:
- A1FI
- A1B
- A1T
_____________ follows a “business as usual” fossil fuel intensive future
A1FI
is a balanced energy picture
A1B
is a non-fossil fuel future.
A1T
- The __________ storyline follows a more conservative economic world, where economic growth is more limited to smaller regions of the world.
A2
In A2, Technological change is slower in this _______, while high fertility rates result in a booming population.
storyline
In A2, Technological change is slower in this storyline, while high _______ result in a booming population.
fertility rates
The B1 storyline assumes the same population growth as the A1 storyline. It differs in that it has less of a material intense society, and __________.
focuses more on clean and efficient technologies
- It focuses on local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity.
- Local solution to sustainability
- continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; - less rapid technological change in B1 and A1
B2
t takes emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, but with no additional climate incentives.
B1
We begin with identifying some specific outcomes that you are concerned about, then figure out what kind of social changes could produce those outcomes.
Top-down approach
Rather than defining the stories first, the________________ defines the GHG trajectories first, then define what human responses corresponds to those trajectories.
Representative Concentration Pathways
__________________ is the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. This power, and thus the difference, is measured in watts per meter squared.
Radiative forcing
Power coming into Earth - Power leaving the Earth = _____________________
Radiative Forcing Amount
Changes that have a warming effect are called __________________, while changes that have a cooling effect are called “negative” forcing.
“positive” forcing
Changes that have a warming effect are called “positive” forcing, while changes that have a cooling effect are called ____________.
“negative” forcing
- provides a broad range of scenarios incorporating various socioeconomic and technological factors
- developed by IPCC, can give the range of plausible future climate
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
primarily focus on greenhouse gas concentrations and radiative forcing
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
There are four trajectories starting from historical data. The factors for changes in RFA include:
- predictive solar output
- all GHGs that affect energy flows
- the use of aerosol and black carbon
- snow
- land use change
