Class 1 Methodology Flashcards
What are the 8 elements of a theory?
Example: If the goal of the United States was to preserve the democratic peace, why did it attempt to overthrow the cuban Government?
1). Research Question
2). Lit Review
3). List the Current Hypothesis
4). Alternative Hypotheses
5). Identification of Variables
6). Test Design
7). Case Selection
8). Evaluation of Findings and Policy Prescriptions
Tautologies
Example: It will snow tomorrow or it will not.
Non-falsifiable assertions
What are the three criteria for a causal relationship by David Hume.
Example: A higher education level causes an increase in income.
1). constant conjoining
2). space-time contiguity
3). temporal ordering
What are counterfactuals?
Example: Nuclear was between the US and the USSR during the Cold War.
Events that did not occur but could have.
What are the two methods of falsification?
Example: Available data falsifies the theory that vaccines are linked to autism.
1). available data
2). alternative theory
What is Mach’s Falsification Criterium?
Example: We can further validate a theory; “When a state believes they require increased security to maintain safety and power, it will still consider the security of another state that could be influenced by its actions. “ by disproving the opposite or limiting a similar statement like; “States will seek security without considering the security of another because they value the safety of their state more than the safety of another.”
You can only disprove a theory, not prove it.
Method of Difference
Example: The United States government is democratic and so is the UK. Indicator: They vary in their legislative body, congress (US) and parliament (UK)
Selecting similar cases and isolating an indicator that causes changes/differences.
Easy vs Hard Cases?
Example: A Hard case is when US-USSR conflict did not escalate as expected from the hypothesis that the security dilemma causes states to act recklessly to ensure their security.
Easy cases easily demonstrate the relationship. Hard cases are the least likely cases that strengthen the explanation.
What are the two ways to Falsify or Demonstrate Causality?
1). Variance Analysis
2). Compare Explanations
What does the Central Limit Theorem say?
Example:
Extreme outcomes occur in lower frequency, highly unlikely events are more likely to occur as the numbers we are observing are smaller.
What are the levels of analysis?
Example: Individual: Ronald Reagan’s distaste for communism spiraled into the cold war.
1). Individuals
2). The State
3). The International System
What is the Problem of Reduction?
Example: Assuming the state behaves as a human.
Attribute the dynamics of one process at one level of analysis to the dynamic of a process at another level of analysis.
What is intentional/unintentional power?
Example: in Brazil’s 1964 coup, leaders moved against left-wing elements because they thought the US would support them
Unintentional power if someone is changing their behavior to suit you without your awareness.
What is negative power?
Example: US and USSR arms race
Power that produces unintended and undesired outcomes.
What is a non-decision?
Example: The league of nations’s failure to prevent WW2.
The absence of a decision becomes significant in itself.
