Chapter 4 Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
Class based voting
1964 election saw voting along class lines with Harold Wilson won 64% of DE and Sir Alec Douglas-Home won 78% of AB.
In 1979, Thatcher started her campaign in Labour Cardiff. The swing to Conservatives was 11% among C2 and 9% among DE.
2019 - DE 41 Con 39 Lab - C2 47 Con 32 Lab
-9 and -8 for Labour since 2017
2019 Red Car never voted Conservative and Bolsover since creation in 1950
Conservative won constituencies had 10% more homeowners than Labour constituencies
Region based voting
Labour has increased voting share in London by 9.2% between 2010 and 2019.
Conservatives have gained ground in former heavy industry areas - 18.8% in North East and 14% in York and Humber.
South of England 2019 was polled as 39% in favour of Conservative over 13% for Labour
North England 29% Con 27% Lab
Labour were stronger in Wales at 24%
Electoral calculus predictions 2024
South West 27.3% Con 32.5% Lab
North East 17.4% Con 54.2% Lab
Wales 19.2% Con 47.7% Lab
Age based voting
Age is a significant factor Labour had 62% of 18-24 and 51% of 25-34.
Switch over point for voters went from 47 to 34
Cons 64% in 2019 and 61% in 2017 of 65+
Ethnicity based voting
In 2017 Conservatives won just 5 of the 75 most ethnically diverse communities.
Labour won 46 of the 73 seats in London which is 45% white British.
IPSOS Mori poll saw 64% ethnic minorities vote for Labour only 20% vote Conservative
However, 2024 West Midlands mayoral election saw Akhmed Yakoob receive 12% of votes for his pro palestine position
Education based voting
2019 High degree and above were 43% Labour 17% Lib Dem and 29% Conservative
GCSE or below was 58% Cons 25% Labor and 8% Lib Dem
Political context - Governing competence
2001 Tony Blair kept his large majority with 412 seats
1983 Thatcher 58 seat gain with falklands and an improving economy.
2024 local election 474 councillors lost and 10 councils for Conservatives due to failure to adequately deal with migration and economy
2024 May Natalie Elphick MP for Dover
2024 April Dr Dan Poulter MP over NHS
Political context - leadership
Lord Frost praised Johnson for ‘firmness’ on Brexit
Starmer praised for his support by Richard Parker mayor of West Midlands
2024 4 in 5 Labour voters support Starmer
Sir Simon Clarke former Con minister criticised Sunak saying ‘he does not get what Britain needs’
Political context - opposition
Feb 2023 Starmer set out five national pledges whilst calling for a ‘decade of national renewal’
Feb 2023 EHCR stopped reviewing the Labour party on anti semitism after Starmers transparency reforms
May 2024 34% believe Starmer is suited 18% for Sunak
YouGov 37% competent for Starmer 29% Sunak
Political context - campaigns
2015 stunts such as bacon sandwich and Ed’s stones
2017 Corbyn’s grassroots style helped prevent a May majority.
In 2019 however, Johnson’s clearer Brexit message meant a large Labour loss
Political context - voter turnout
65+ 74%
18-24 47%
Turnout for all BME voters 52%
Degree or higher 69%
GCSE or lower 59%
Political context - manifesto
2017 For the Many Not the Few worked well against May who had allegations of an austerity pedlar.
2019 Get Brexit Done
2024 Conservative possible manifesto - Spring budget saw national insurance cut by 2%
Reform to Inheritance tax, cap on business tax at 25%
Labour pledge card May 2024
- 6500 new teachers
- Crack down on anti social policies
- Setting up Great British Energy
- New Border Security Command
- Cut NHS waiting times
- Deliver economic stability
Political context - issue voting
2019 YouGov 70% picked Britain leaving EU as important issues, 38% said Health 27% said crime
2017 Dementia Tax, Brexit, health
2015 National security after 2014 Ukraine invasion, EU, Austerity
Political influence - media
2024 OFCOM investigation into GB News as they had guest politicians such as Jacob Ress Mogg acting as impartial presenters.
Declining readership - Sun 3.8mn in 1997 to 1.2mn, Daily Mirror from 2.4mn to 333,000
2015 77% of tabloid readers were hostile to Ed Milliband.
2017 increase from £16k spent on social media to £500k
2017 Facebook engagement for Labour tripled Conservatives turnout for 18 year olds was up by 16%
1995 Major met for 30 minutes with Murdoch but the Sun endorsed Blair and ran with the title ‘it was the sun wot won it again’
2023 Sunak and Starmer attended Spencer House to court Murdoch
In 2019 only the Mirror supported Labour
31% of traditional news engagement was with Conservative outlets and 12% of Labour
2015 56 national polls suggested voters wanted to remain influencing Cameron
General elections - 1979 election
James Callaghan lost a vote of confidence in march 1979
- Governing competence - Winter of discontent, services had refused to accept the 5% pay cap. Callaghan had served a role in every Labour government since 1964
- Campaign - Conservatives focused on industrial action with ‘Labour isn’t working’. Jeremy Thorpe’s trial meant that middle class Liberal voters voted for Conservatives.
- Results - 339 43.9% Cons, 269 36.9% Labour, 11 13.8% Liberal
General elections - 1997
Conservatives had been in power for 18 years and they were viewed as divided over Europe
- Governing competence - Major narrowly won the 1992 election and was seen as weak with his party as disunited.
- Tony Blair New Labour - change in party platform which included the amendment of Clause 4 so that Labour was no longer committed to nationalisation
- The campaign - Labour began with a 20% lead, its 1997 pledge card influenced Conservatives with a pledge to not rise income tax and Liberals with HoL reform. Tory New Labour New Danger failed
- Results - 418 43.2% Labour, 165 30.7% Conservative, 46 16.8% Lib Dem
