Chapter 15

Question 1

difference between forecast and scenario

Answer 1

forecast: projects/predicts a future outcome using a model
Scenario: hypothetical outcome derived from a set of circumstances that follow logical assumptions

Question 2

explain the different types of time frames:

Answer 2

Near-term:within 10 yrs
Mid-term: 10-30 yrs
Long term: longer than 30 yrs

Question 3

what are the 3 primary factors to predict future outcomes

Answer 3

1. population
2. standard of living
3. technnology

Question 4

constant annual growth rate formula

Answer 4

P=Po(1+r)^t

Question 5

impact formula

Answer 5

impact in future=(future pop - current pop)*(rate of impact per person now)

where rate of impact=waste/current pop

Question 6

what is the most realistic growth model

Answer 6

P=Poe^(rt) (exponential)

Question 7

what is the demographic growth rate formula?

Answer 7

growth rate=birth rate-death rate + immigration rate

Question 8

why is the demographic growth rate not very effective

Answer 8

because it isn’t localized

based off a lot of assumption

Question 9

what does the GDP per capital look at?

Answer 9

• economic affluence per person

- monetary value of all goods and services of a given economy

Question 10

what is the input-output model for economic growth?

Answer 10

quantifies the goods and services by sector and accounts for all indirect impacts along a supply chain and the impacts of an activity

Question 11

what are macroeconomic models?

Answer 11

they divide the anylsis between corporations (firms, governments, households, goods and financial markets)

Question 12

important evironmental changes for analysis (hint: tech)

Answer 12

1. improvement to current tech design
2. substitution of alternate tech
3. new class of tech.
4. change in tech utilization