Chapter 10: Risk Assessment Flashcards
historical view of risk assessment
Prior to the 1990s, risk was viewed as a dichotomy (dangerous or not dangerous)
contemporary view of risk assessment
Today, risk is regarded as a range: an individual can vary in the degree to which they are considered dangerous, which has added a dimension of probability
what are the 2 considerations that the contemporary view’s focus on probability reflects?
- Highlights that capabilities may change over time
- Recognizes that risk level reflects an interaction among a person’s characteristics, background, and possible future situations that will affect whether the person engages in violent behaviour
two components of risk assessment
prediction & management
prediction
describes the probability that an individual will commit future criminal or violent acts
management
describes the development of interventions to manage or reduce the likelihood of future violence
when are risk assessments conducted?
in both civil and criminal contexts
civil context
the private rights of individuals and the legal proceedings connected with such rights
criminal context
situations in which an individual has been charged with a crime
civil contexts that require risk assessment
- Civil commitment, which requires an individual to be hospitalized involuntarily if they have a mental illness and pose a danger to themselves or others
- Assessment of risk in child protection contexts
- Immigration laws prohibit the admission of individuals into Canada if there are reasonable grounds for believing they will engage in acts of violence or pose a risk to the social, cultural, or economic functioning of society
- School and labour regulations, which include provisions to prevent any kind of act that would endanger others
- Duty to warn: mental health professionals must consider the likelihood that their patients will act violently and intervene to prevent such behaviour
when do criminal risk assessments occur?
at nearly every major decision point in the criminal justice system, including level of security, sentencing decisions, conditional release, level of supervision, parole, and bail
Disclosure of risk assessment information must be considered in light of ______
the attorney-client privilege
Smith v. Jones (1999)
involved a psychiatrist who was hired to aid a defence lawyer in prelating a case. The Supreme Court of Canada ruled that in cases where there is “clear, serious, and imminent danger,” public safety outweighs attorney-client privilege
Long-term offender
an offender who poses a substantial risk of violently reoffending
true positive
a correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour does so
true negative
a correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour does not
false positive
an incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour but does not
false negative
an incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour but does
implications of a false positive
Has implications for the individual being assessed
types of prediction outcomes
- true positive
- true negative
- false positive
- false negative
implications of a false negative
Has implications for society and the potential victim
relationship between false positives and false negatives
Minimizing the number of false positive errors results in an increase in the number of false negative errors
base rate
the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act
making predictions in light of the base rate problem
It is difficult to make accurate predictions when the base rates are too high or too low
what events are easier to predict?
It’s generally easier to predict frequent events than infrequent ones
3 main appraoches to risk assessment
- unstructured clinical judgment
- actuarial prediction
- structured professional judgment
Unstructured clinical judgment
decisions characterized by a substantial amount of professional discretion and a lack of guidelines
Actuarial prediction
decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome
criticism of actuarial prediction
sole reliance on static risk factors, which do not permit measuring changes in risk over time or provide information relevant to intervention
structured professional judgment
decisions are guided by a predetermined list of factors that have been selected from the research and professional literature. Judgment of risk level is based on the evaluator’s professional judgment
actuarial prediction vs. unstructured clinical judgments
Actuarial prediction is equal to or better than unstructured clinical judgment in all cases
4 components of violence-risk-assessment approaches
- Identifying empirically valid risk factors
- Determining a method for measuring these risk factors
- Establishing a procedure for combining scores on the risk factors
- Producing an estimate of violence risk
the process of risk assessment
- gather information
- evaluate risk and protective factors
- determine risk level
- develop intervention or supervision plan
- monitor change in riks level
static risk factor
risk factors that do not fluctuate over time and are not amenable to change
example of a static risk factor
criminal history
dynamic risk factor
risk factors that fluctuate over time and are amenable to change
example of a dynamic risk factor
antisocial attitudes
acute dynamic risk factor
risk factors that change rapidly within days, hours, or minutes and often occur just prior to an offence
example of an acute dynamic risk factor
level of intoxication
risk factors and violence
Dynamic risk factors are related to the imminence of engaging in violent behaviour
Jones et al., 2010 predictive accuracy of researchers and parole officers study
compared the predictive accuracy of risk ratings by researchers and parole officers in released offenders across three different time intervals. Both parole officers and researchers were moderately accurate, but it was the combination of time-dependent dynamic factors with static factors that showed the strongest predictive accuracy.
The Static-99
- A 10-item actuarial scale designed to predict sexual recidivism
- All items are static
- Scores can range from 0 to 12
- Four risk categories: low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high
HCR-20
- Uses the structured professional judgment approach to risk assessment to predict violent behaviour in correctional, forensic psychiatric, and civil psychiatric adult samples
- 20 items are organized into three main scales: historical (past), clinical (present), and risk management (future)
Yang et al., 2010 predictive effectiveness of risk assessment measures study
conducted a meta-analysis comparing the predictive effectiveness of several risk assessment measures. They found that all measures were equally good predictors of violent outcomes
historical factors
- past behaviour
- age of onset
- childhood history of maltreatment
past behaviour
The most accurate predictor of future behaviour
age of onset
Individuals who start antisocial behaviour earlier are more likely to be chronic and serious offenders
childhood history of maltreatment
- Children who were victims of physical abuse or neglect are much more likely to commit criminal acts
- Continued abuse predicts chronic offending
dispositional factors
- demographics
- personality and attitudinal characteristics
demographics
younger people and men are at greater risk of offending
personality and attitudinal characteristics
Includes pro-criminal attitudes, impulsivity, and psychopathy
clinical factors
- substance abuse
- mental disorder
- contextual factors
substance abuse
- Drug and alcohol use is associated with criminal behaviour, violence, and recidivism
- Heroin is the drug that is the most linked to violence
- Mental illness diagnosis predicts minor drug use, but high-risk behaviours were predicted by more serious polysubstance abuse
mental disorder
- Affective disorders and schizophrenia are linked to higher rates of violence
- Those with a history of suicide attempts and engaging in self-harm behaviours are more likely to engage in aggression
Lack of social support
the absence of strong support systems to help individuals in their day-to-day lives
4 kinds of support
instrumental (providing the necessities of life), emotional (giving strength to), appraisal (giving aid to), and information (providing new facts)
contextual factors
- lack of social support
- access to weapons or victims
access to weapons or victims
- If an offender is released into an environment with easy access to victims or weapons, their potential for another violent act increases
- Releasing the offender into the same circumstances that led to past violence may induce future violence
Hart, 1998 on the function of risk assessment
the critical function of risk assessments is violence prevention
what is the only sentencing option in Canada for dangerous offenders?
Changes to the legislation in 1997 made indefinite incarceration the only sentencing option for a dangerous offender
