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PSYC 2400 > Chapter 10: Risk Assessment > Flashcards

Chapter 10: Risk Assessment Flashcards

1
Q

historical view of risk assessment

A

Prior to the 1990s, risk was viewed as a dichotomy (dangerous or not dangerous)

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2
Q

contemporary view of risk assessment

A

Today, risk is regarded as a range: an individual can vary in the degree to which they are considered dangerous, which has added a dimension of probability

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3
Q

what are the 2 considerations that the contemporary view’s focus on probability reflects?

A
  1. Highlights that capabilities may change over time
  2. Recognizes that risk level reflects an interaction among a person’s characteristics, background, and possible future situations that will affect whether the person engages in violent behaviour
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4
Q

two components of risk assessment

A

prediction & management

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5
Q

prediction

A

describes the probability that an individual will commit future criminal or violent acts

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6
Q

management

A

describes the development of interventions to manage or reduce the likelihood of future violence

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7
Q

when are risk assessments conducted?

A

in both civil and criminal contexts

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8
Q

civil context

A

the private rights of individuals and the legal proceedings connected with such rights

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9
Q

criminal context

A

situations in which an individual has been charged with a crime

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10
Q

civil contexts that require risk assessment

A
  • Civil commitment, which requires an individual to be hospitalized involuntarily if they have a mental illness and pose a danger to themselves or others
  • Assessment of risk in child protection contexts
  • Immigration laws prohibit the admission of individuals into Canada if there are reasonable grounds for believing they will engage in acts of violence or pose a risk to the social, cultural, or economic functioning of society
  • School and labour regulations, which include provisions to prevent any kind of act that would endanger others
  • Duty to warn: mental health professionals must consider the likelihood that their patients will act violently and intervene to prevent such behaviour
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11
Q

when do criminal risk assessments occur?

A

at nearly every major decision point in the criminal justice system, including level of security, sentencing decisions, conditional release, level of supervision, parole, and bail

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12
Q

Disclosure of risk assessment information must be considered in light of ______

A

the attorney-client privilege

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13
Q

Smith v. Jones (1999)

A

involved a psychiatrist who was hired to aid a defence lawyer in prelating a case. The Supreme Court of Canada ruled that in cases where there is “clear, serious, and imminent danger,” public safety outweighs attorney-client privilege

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14
Q

Long-term offender

A

an offender who poses a substantial risk of violently reoffending

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15
Q

true positive

A

a correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour does so

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16
Q

true negative

A

a correct prediction that occurs when a person who is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour does not

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17
Q

false positive

A

an incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted to engage in some type of behaviour but does not

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18
Q

false negative

A

an incorrect prediction that occurs when a person is predicted not to engage in some type of behaviour but does

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19
Q

implications of a false positive

A

Has implications for the individual being assessed

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20
Q

types of prediction outcomes

A
  • true positive
  • true negative
  • false positive
  • false negative
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20
Q

implications of a false negative

A

Has implications for society and the potential victim

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21
Q

relationship between false positives and false negatives

A

Minimizing the number of false positive errors results in an increase in the number of false negative errors

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22
Q

base rate

A

the percentage of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act

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23
Q

making predictions in light of the base rate problem

A

It is difficult to make accurate predictions when the base rates are too high or too low

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24
Q

what events are easier to predict?

A

It’s generally easier to predict frequent events than infrequent ones

25
Q

3 main appraoches to risk assessment

A
  1. unstructured clinical judgment
  2. actuarial prediction
  3. structured professional judgment
26
Q

Unstructured clinical judgment

A

decisions characterized by a substantial amount of professional discretion and a lack of guidelines

27
Q

Actuarial prediction

A

decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome

28
Q

criticism of actuarial prediction

A

sole reliance on static risk factors, which do not permit measuring changes in risk over time or provide information relevant to intervention

29
Q

structured professional judgment

A

decisions are guided by a predetermined list of factors that have been selected from the research and professional literature. Judgment of risk level is based on the evaluator’s professional judgment

30
Q

actuarial prediction vs. unstructured clinical judgments

A

Actuarial prediction is equal to or better than unstructured clinical judgment in all cases

31
Q

4 components of violence-risk-assessment approaches

A
  • Identifying empirically valid risk factors
  • Determining a method for measuring these risk factors
  • Establishing a procedure for combining scores on the risk factors
  • Producing an estimate of violence risk
32
Q

the process of risk assessment

A
  1. gather information
  2. evaluate risk and protective factors
  3. determine risk level
  4. develop intervention or supervision plan
  5. monitor change in riks level
33
Q

static risk factor

A

risk factors that do not fluctuate over time and are not amenable to change

34
Q

example of a static risk factor

A

criminal history

35
Q

dynamic risk factor

A

risk factors that fluctuate over time and are amenable to change

36
Q

example of a dynamic risk factor

A

antisocial attitudes

37
Q

acute dynamic risk factor

A

risk factors that change rapidly within days, hours, or minutes and often occur just prior to an offence

38
Q

example of an acute dynamic risk factor

A

level of intoxication

39
Q

risk factors and violence

A

Dynamic risk factors are related to the imminence of engaging in violent behaviour

40
Q

Jones et al., 2010 predictive accuracy of researchers and parole officers study

A

compared the predictive accuracy of risk ratings by researchers and parole officers in released offenders across three different time intervals. Both parole officers and researchers were moderately accurate, but it was the combination of time-dependent dynamic factors with static factors that showed the strongest predictive accuracy.

41
Q

The Static-99

A
  • A 10-item actuarial scale designed to predict sexual recidivism
  • All items are static
  • Scores can range from 0 to 12
  • Four risk categories: low, moderate-low, moderate-high, and high
42
Q

HCR-20

A
  • Uses the structured professional judgment approach to risk assessment to predict violent behaviour in correctional, forensic psychiatric, and civil psychiatric adult samples
  • 20 items are organized into three main scales: historical (past), clinical (present), and risk management (future)
43
Q

Yang et al., 2010 predictive effectiveness of risk assessment measures study

A

conducted a meta-analysis comparing the predictive effectiveness of several risk assessment measures. They found that all measures were equally good predictors of violent outcomes

44
Q

historical factors

A
  • past behaviour
  • age of onset
  • childhood history of maltreatment
45
Q

past behaviour

A

The most accurate predictor of future behaviour

46
Q

age of onset

A

Individuals who start antisocial behaviour earlier are more likely to be chronic and serious offenders

47
Q

childhood history of maltreatment

A
  • Children who were victims of physical abuse or neglect are much more likely to commit criminal acts
  • Continued abuse predicts chronic offending
48
Q

dispositional factors

A
  • demographics
  • personality and attitudinal characteristics
49
Q

demographics

A

younger people and men are at greater risk of offending

50
Q

personality and attitudinal characteristics

A

Includes pro-criminal attitudes, impulsivity, and psychopathy

51
Q

clinical factors

A
  • substance abuse
  • mental disorder
  • contextual factors
52
Q

substance abuse

A
  • Drug and alcohol use is associated with criminal behaviour, violence, and recidivism
  • Heroin is the drug that is the most linked to violence
  • Mental illness diagnosis predicts minor drug use, but high-risk behaviours were predicted by more serious polysubstance abuse
53
Q

mental disorder

A
  • Affective disorders and schizophrenia are linked to higher rates of violence
  • Those with a history of suicide attempts and engaging in self-harm behaviours are more likely to engage in aggression
54
Q

Lack of social support

A

the absence of strong support systems to help individuals in their day-to-day lives

55
Q

4 kinds of support

A

instrumental (providing the necessities of life), emotional (giving strength to), appraisal (giving aid to), and information (providing new facts)

56
Q

contextual factors

A
  • lack of social support
  • access to weapons or victims
57
Q

access to weapons or victims

A
  • If an offender is released into an environment with easy access to victims or weapons, their potential for another violent act increases
  • Releasing the offender into the same circumstances that led to past violence may induce future violence
58
Q

Hart, 1998 on the function of risk assessment

A

the critical function of risk assessments is violence prevention

59
Q

what is the only sentencing option in Canada for dangerous offenders?

A

Changes to the legislation in 1997 made indefinite incarceration the only sentencing option for a dangerous offender

PSYC 2400 (20 decks)

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