Chap 2

Question 1

Define confound

Answer 1

Several possible explanations for any outcome

Question 2

Why do we believe what we believe? (Ineffective ways)

Answer 2

• experiences
• intuitions
• authorities

Question 3

Why can’t we trust our experiences as a credible source?

Answer 3

There is no comparison group to prove it correct/wrong

Question 4

What is intuition? Why is it an ineffective source of info?

Answer 4

Intuition= what we think is right (gut feeling)

Intuition is biased. (Thinking the easy way and thinking what we want to think)

We tend to appeal to common sense to justify our beliefs, bc it’s easier to believe a “good story” than a more complicated or U granular one

“It just makes sense”

Intuition has been wrong in cases of: catharsis, stomach ulcers, bystander apathy

Question 5

What is present/present bias?

Answer 5

The difficulty for most of us to look for a senses and easiness to notice what is present.

We only consider the positive cases to support our intuition

(Need for comparison/control group)

(Intuition)

Question 6

Define the pop-up principle

Answer 6

Our thinking is guided by the things that come to mind easily

We tend to remember the things that are more dramatic, salient, in the media

Ex: which is more frequent death by fire or falling

Falling is way more frequent but fire is more exciting, memorable, more likely to be reported in the news so that’s why we think fire is more frequent at first thought

(Intuition)

Question 7

Define cherry-picking

Answer 7

We tend to discount evidence that counters our beliefs

and accept info that confirms what we already think and want to think

(Intuition)

Question 8

Define confirmatory hypothesis testing (biased questions)

Answer 8

Selecting questions that would lead to a particular, expected answer.

Question 9

Define overconfidence

Answer 9

Once we decide what we think we ten to be overconfident because we want to think we are right

Another reason why not to trust your intuition

Question 10

How can you tell if you should listen to what an authority says is credible?

Answer 10

• sometimes we accept facts and opinions from authorities

Do these “authorities” refer to empirical evident (peer research articles) to support their views

If not, then they are subject to the same cognitive bias as you

Question 11

How is a properly conducted research study avoid problems? (Authorities, experience, intuition)

Answer 11

• by using comparison
• by controlling confounding variables

Research publish the findings of their research studies, make them available to other researchers and the public.

They write: journal articles, chapters in books, wholes books