Changes in BR + DR Over Time

Question 1

What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?

Answer 1

• model representing trends of natural pop. change
• shows how BR + DR change over time + how this affects pop. numbers
• generally BR + DR have both dec.

Question 2

What is the model separated into?

Answer 2

• 5 stages, reflecting a country’s level of dev.
• usually lower stages = less dev.

Question 3

What are the basic characteristics of stage 1 of the DTM?

Answer 3

• high fluctuating BR + DR
  
  • BR: birth control scarce, high IMR + low LE
  • DR: high lvls of disease, famine, war, poor hygiene + underdeveloped + inadequate health facilities
• small + constant pop growth
  
  • BR don’t exceed DR
• pop. dependent on food, so any food shortages has a sig. effect on pop.
• no country as a whole is in stage 1, but tribal communities in New Guinea + Amazon can be classified into this stage

Question 4

What are the basic characteristics of stage 2 of the DTM?

Answer 4

• sig. decline in DR due to:
  
  • dec. IM + inc. LE
  • major societal dev.s (e.g. the Agri. Rev.)
  • dev. in healthcare, clean water supply, hygiene + general living standards so less diseases
  • inc. food security leading to less famines
• BR remains high leading to rapid inc. in pop.
• many Sub-Saharan African countries in this stage inc. Yemen, Niger + Iraq

Question 5

What are the basic characteristics of stage 3 of the DTM?

Answer 5

• BR starts to fall as further social dev.s more based on cultural + social changes, inc.:
  
  • women have more access to education + are no longer seen as child bearers so begin to work + earn
  • inc. contraception methods for birth control
  • dec. needs for large family
  • education + change in social values: higher literacy rates + preferences for smaller families
• DR remains to fall, as LE continues to inc. + IM to dec., causing pop. growth to slow down
• inc. rapidly developing L/MIC (e.g. India + Mexico)

Question 6

What are the basic characteristics of stage 4 of the DTM?

Answer 6

• BR + DR are low + fluctuating causing pop. growth to slow
• DR slightly rise as avg. age of pop. inc.
• LE improves + age specific MR continues to fall
• majority of dev. HICs, inc. UK + NICs like S. Korea + Taiwan

Question 7

What are the basic characteristics of stage 5 of the DTM?

Answer 7

• not officially in model, but proposed
• BR fall below DR, causing a dec. in pop in absence of net migration inflows
  
  • BR fall due to:
    
    • rise in concept on childlessness
    • concern ab. impact of inc. pop. on future generations
    • inc. in non-traditional lifestyles (e.g. same-sex relationships)
• inc. Germany + Japan