Ch 6 - Alyssa *done

Question 1

A forecasting method that extrapolates from historical organizational indices

Answer 1

Trend Analysis

Question 2

Ratio Analysis

Answer 2

A quantitative method of projecting HR demand by analyzing the relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required

Question 3

Quantitative methods of forecasting

Answer 3

trend, ratio and regression analysis

Question 4

Qualitative methods of forecasting

Answer 4

envelope/scenario planning, impact analysis, Delphi technique and the nominal group technique

Question 5

5 steps of conducting an effective trend analysis

Answer 5

1. Select the appropriate business/operational index
2. Track the Business Index over time
3. Track the workforce size over time
4. Calculate the Average Ratio of the business index to the workforce size
5. calculate the forecasted demand for labour

Question 6

Regression Analysis

Answer 6

Presupposes that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent (cause) variables, which are predicted to affect the dependent (target) variable (like future HR demand for personnel - number of personnel required)

Question 7

Linearity

Answer 7

refers to the observed relationship between the independent and dependent variables (if met, can use for demand forecasting)

Question 8

Envelope/Scenario Forecasting

Answer 8

projections, or multiple-predictor estimates, of future HR demand based on a variety of differing assumptions about how future organizational events will unfold

Question 9

Forecasting method in which past trends are analyzed by a panel of experts to predict future HR demand

Answer 9

Impact analysis - relies on subjective expert judgements

Question 10

Delphi Technique

Answer 10

a process in which the forecasts and judgement of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand.

Question 11

Process of Delphi technique

Answer 11

a carefully designed program of sequential, individual interviews interspersed with feedback on the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds.

Question 12

Steps of Delphi technique

Answer 12

`1. Define and Refine issue in question

2. Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon
3. Orient the experts
4. issue the first-round questionnaire
5. Issue the first round summary and second-round questionnaire
6. Continue issuing questionnaires

Question 13

Disadvantages of Delphi

Answer 13

• results cannot be validated statistically - rely on individual knowledge and commitment of experts
• higher time/costs
• common professional training might prevent development of innovative courses of action
• if insufficient attn has been paid to developing criteria for ID and selection of experts, experts may lack the sufficient expertise or info for meaningful contribution

Question 14

Long-run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments

Answer 14

Nominal Group Technique

Question 15

Why does NGT “reduce potential for dominance, personal attacks, defensive behaviour”, etc?

Answer 15

Because each estimate is considered to be the property of the entire group and to be impersonal in nature

Question 16

HR budgets

Answer 16

quantitative, operational or short-run demand estimates that contain the number and types of personnel classes required by the organization as a whole and for each individual subunit, division and departments

Question 17

staffing table

Answer 17

total HR demand requirements for operational or short-run time periods, as well as number of personnel required, by level and function