Ch 36 Investment appraisal (A Level Flashcards
Define investment appraisal
Evaluating the profitability or desirability of an investment project
Assess whether the likely future returns on project will be greater than the costs and by how much
Information needed to be able to undertake a quantitative investment appraisal
- Initial capital costs of the investment
- Estimated life expectancy
- The expected residual value (additional net returns from the sale of the asset at the end of its useful life)
- Forecasted net returns or net cash flows from the project (expected returns less running costs)
Methods of quantitative investment appraisal
Payback period Average rate of return Net present value Internal rate of return Discounted payback
Define payback period
The payback period is the length of time it takes for net cash inflows to pay back the original capital costs of the investment.
additional net cash flow needed x 12 / annual cash flow in the year that additional cash flow is needed
Why is payback period important?
A business may have borrowed the finance for the investment => longer payback period will increase interest payments
Even if the finance was obtained internally, the capital has an opportunity cost => the speedier the payback, the quicker the capital is made available for other projects
The longer the project continues, the more uncertain it becomes since changes in the environment is difficult to manage
Some managers are risk averse => quick payback reducs uncertainties
Cash flows received in the future have less real value than cash flows today due to inflation. The quicker, the higher the real value will be
Advantages of payback period
It is quick and easy to calculate
Easily understood
Emphasis on speed of return gives the benefit of concentrating on the more accurate short term forecast of the project’s profitability
Result can be used to screen out projects that aren’t feasible
Useful for business where liquidity > profitability
Disadvantages of payback period
Does not measure the overall profitability of a project as it ignores all the cash flows after the payback period. It may be possible for an investment to give a rapid return of capital, but then to offer no other cash inflows
Concentration on short term may lead to businesses to reject profitable long term investments
Does not consider the timing of the cash flows during the payback period
Define average rate of return
The average rate of return (ARR) measures the annual profitability of an investment as a percentage of the initial investment.
add all up positive cash flows
Subtract cost of investment
Divide by life span
x 100
Advantages of ARR
Uses all of the cash flows Focuses on profitability Easily understood Easy to compare Can be quickly assessed against criterion rate
Disadvantages of ARR
Ignores the timing of the cash flows => result in 2 projects having similar ARR results, but one could pay back much quickly than the other
As all cash flows are included the later ones are less likely to be accurate
Time value of money is ignored as the cash flows have not been discounted
Define net present value
The net present value (NPV) measures today’s value of the estimated cash flows resulting from an investment.
multiply discount factors by the net cash flows
add the discounted cash flows
subtract the capital cost/original investment
Advantages of NPV
It considers both the timing of cash flows and the size of them in arriving at an appraisal
The rate of discount can be varied to allow for different economic circumstances. e.g. could be increased if there was a general expectation that interest rates were about to rise
It considers the time value of money and takes the opportunity cost of money into account
Disadvantages of NPV
Reasonably complex to calculate and explain
Final result depends greatly on the rate of discount used and expectations abt interest rates may be inaccurate
NPV can be compared with other projects but only if the initial capital cost is the same. This is because the method does not provide a % rate of return on investment
Define internal rate of return
the rate of discount that yields a NPV of zero
the higher the IRR, the more profitable the investment project is
What should IRR be compared with?
the IRR of other projects - the highest reflects the most profitable investment
the expected cost of capital or rate of interest and if IRR is greater, the project should be profitablem taking the cost of borrowed capital into account
a cut-off rate or criterion rate of return preset by the business
Define criterion rate
the minimum levels (maximum for payback period) set by mgmt for investment appraisal results for a project to be accepted
Advantages of IRR
By giving a percentage rate of return, different projects costing different amounts can be compared
Easily compared with the rate of interest or the criterion rate
Avoids the need to choose an actual rate of discount
Disadvantages of IRR
tedious calculation => human errors
by giving an exact result, it can mislead business users into believing that investment appraisal is a precise process without risk and uncertainties
Evaluation of investment appraisal
Analysing numerical results can mislead managers into assuming that the results are certain and definite. Rarely the case since uncertainties over future cash flows, operating costs, movements in interest rates and other variables. Can only be a guide
Much will depend on manager’s attitude towards risk and balance o be achieved between risk and potential future profits
Significance of objectives also depends greatly on the qualitative factors
What are the qualitative factors?
Impact on environment
Planning permissio
Aims and objecties of the business
Manager’s attitude towards risk
