Bias and decision making Flashcards
rules of action/thought that define optimality (optimality principles) =
norms
_______ is a set of norms
rationality
what are the norms of rationality?
be consistent (coherence) and correspond to reality (correspondence)
is there a universal set or rational and optimal?
no (nobody can agree on a complete set of norms for reasoning)
overestimating frequency = which bias?
availability bias
switching your decision based on the question framing = which bias?
framing bias
which out of availability and framing bias’ is a correspondence error and which is a coherence error?
availability = correspondence, framing = coherence
what is ‘the linda problem’ an example of?
conjunction fallacy (example of bias)
decision making method that calculates the option with the highest expected utility =
expected utility theory
what is the decision rule for expected utility theory?
choose option with highest expected utility taking into account uncertainty
expresses the value of something for its use/preference/enjoyment (not value as in cost) =
utility
uncertainty affects _______
expectation
what is the formula foe calculating expected utility?
E = p x U (probability x utility)
how do you calculate expected utility if there are multiple options?
E = (p1 x U1) + (p2 x U2) etc
uncertainty give probability ________
distributions (uncertainty is a distribution around a value)
lots of variance = _____ distribution = ____ uncertainty
wide, high
is there a unit for utility?
no (utility is the unit)
how is rationality bounded?
the world is complex > decisions need to be made quickly, we have limited time, information and cognitive capacity
if we can’t always be rational how do we make decisions?
use heuristics
is correspondence or coherence more important to use to fit with the environment and why?
correspondence > ecological rationality
value of an action across evolutionary time =
adaptive value
what is evolution trying to provide you with?
cognitive mechanisms that allow you to be successful in maximising long term expected value
what are ways to maximise long term expected value?
average benefit of errors, avoiding costly mistakes, avoid high costs
heuristics make assumptions about the _______ about _______ and _______
environment, associations, probabilities
what amount of info means the recognition heuristic works well?
small amount of info (compared to no info or a lot of info)
what were the results from Goldstein & Gigerenzer’s study with german and american ppts?
surprising result > german students more accurate for american cities and american students more accurate for german cities (probs because knew a small amount of info)
what amount of info interferes with recognition?
too much info
recognition heuristic works when the likelihood of hearing an option correlates with its _____ and doesnt work when incidence isn’t related to ______
value
what are characteristics of good heuristics?
fast, not too much info, relies on an assumption about the environment
give some examples of biases defined by norms
expected utility theory, laws of probability (conjunction problem) formal logic (wason selection task), evolutionary adaptiveness (ecological validity)
what are 2 tasks that show human error/bias?
wason’s selection task, linda problem
task where you should turn over E and 1 but confirmation bias is shown where people usually pick E and 6 which confirm the hypothesis rather than test it. What task is this?
Wason’s selection task
task to find the rule which generates number sequences. you propose examples and be told if they fit or break the rule. starting example: 2-4-6. what task is this?
Wason’s 2-4-6 task
what were the results of wason’s 2-4-6 task?
most people think of a rule and generate an example that fits (10-12-14) they show confirmation bias and a ‘positive test strategy’
these tests seek to verify hypothesis (but can find it false) =
positive tests
these tests seek to falsify hypothesis (but can find it true)
negative tests
when choosing a positive test strategy what is best depends on?
beliefs and how it relates to the truth
if the belief rule is specific and the truth rule is general what is the positive test strategy?
always confirms beliefs > belief never improves
is the belief rule and the truth rule are both specific what is the positive test strategy?
rapidly converges on the truth
wason selection task is designed that people get the _____ strategy according to _____
wrong, logic
biases are not mere _____
errors
mistakes are one-off, systematic errors are _______
consistent
biases are making the wrong choice but for a reason. heuristic errors reveal the normal mechanisms of _______
reasoning
what is effortful?
to calculate logic, work out utility calculations
give reasons we might make systematic errors
using a strategy optimised for a different environment, considering a different bundle of choices, using a different cost/benefit analysis
is a heuristic system 1 or system 2?
system 1 (rational = system 2)
give some features of system 1 (heuristic)
comes 1st, share with other animals, quick, automatic, effortless, unconscious
give some features of system 2 (rational)
comes from evolution, slow, deliberate, effortful, conscious
what system when it gets out of hand causes errors?
system 1
the intuitive, effortless system is ______ compared to the slow effortful system being ______
heuristics, rationals
any theory where there are 2 systems that can both generate answers and bide for control =
dual process theory
what are the predictions of rational vs. heuristic thinking as a dual process theory?
features should go together, people should switch between modes of thinking in the right circumstances
if you have more time should you use rational or heuristic thinking?
rational
a psychological theory that posits 2 processes that work at the same time or support the same capacity =
dual process theory
in dual process theory what are features of the 2 processes?
usually work together but can be in conflict together, one usually has system 1 like properties and the other system 2 like properties
when will you see biases?
features of normal cognitive processes (memory, attention, planning), can affect all people, part of thinking
biases are defined against norms =
standards of rationality
