Behavior Finance 7-9 Flashcards
traditional finance
investors are rational, risk averse, self-interest utility maximizers
unlimited knowledge
neoclassical economics
market is efficient (EMH)
Bayer’s conditional probability
Utility theory
REM (rational economic man) use indifference.curve analysis
Behavior finance irrational/suboptimal
BPT Behavioral portfolio theory: 1. constructed in layers 2. concentrated in the low and high risk asset. Median-risk asset tend to be ignored.
Mean variance considers correlation between assets and would be more likely to diversify across asset types.
psychological grounded
BFMI Micro: individual
emotional bias
BFMA Macro: market
efficiencies of markets
Bounded rationality - limitation on ability to process info
Prospect theory - loss averse, reference dependence to determine g/l leading to possible cognitive error
Satisfice
capacity limitation of knowledge
friedman - savage double inflection utility functon
很贫穷和很有钱会risk averse
在中间 risk seeking
sentiment risk
Risk averse
rational
concave
prefer certainty
pay to avoid
Risk seeking
convex
risk seeking
certainty equivalent : max(pay to participate)
max(accept to not participate)
pay to undertake
Perspective analysis (effort to use behavior finance) Prospect theory ( how g/l are evaluated)
based on SEU subjective expected utility
Bounded rational is adequate, satisfied 满意
6 editing to simplify evolution of choices
codification combination segregation cancellation simplification detection of dominance
weakform
technical cannot generate excess return
semi-strong
fundamentally cannot generate excess return
strong-form
no one can earn excess return
3 market anomalies
fundamental - P/E dividend yld
violation of both semi-strong and strong form efficiency
technical - violation of all 3 forms efficiencies
ST moving avg of price move above LT moving avg - buy signal
stock move below a support level - sell
stock move above a support level - buy
Calendar anomaly - small cap have abnormally high return in Jan last day of each month and first 4 days of each month
behavior portfolio construction
consumption and saving
Behavior portfolio theory (layer) focus on portfolio construction
Behavior asset pricing model postulates a sentiment premium should be included in asset pricing
adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) principal of evolution, success is defined as survival, markets change overtime, arbitrage opportunity get priced into the market. assumes successful market participants apply heuristics until they no longer work and then adjust them accordingly.
cognitive error 5
HIRCC hindsight illusion of control representativeness conservatism confirmation
Processing bias 4
FMAA Framing Mental accounting Anchoring Availability
Emotional Bias 6
LOSSER Loss aversion overconfident self-control status quo endowment regret-aversion
Conservatism
underweight new info
is a belief perseverance bias in which people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information
Confirmation
selective bias
Seeking data to support beliefs, discounting contradictory facts
ignore and undervalue what contradict their belief
a cognitive error, is a belief perseverance bias. Individuals who exhibit this bias look for confirmation of their belief and ignore any information which contradicts their belief.
representativeness bias
IPS
classifying info base on past experience
overweight most recent information
base rate neglect
- too little consideration given to the initial classification being correct
sample size neglect
-inferring too much from a small new sample of information
illusion of control
CAPM, mean variace framework
tend to believe they can control or influence outcomes
lead to excess trading
Hindsight bias
may see past events as having been p predictable and reasonable to expect
Anchoring
overweight initial default number
stick to their original estimates/analysis
hold onto
Mental Accounting
goal based
invest in layers
treat one sum of money differently from another equal-sized sum of money
layer/goals
framing
provide a full range of relevant info
decision based on how case is presented
focus future and let go realized loss
availability bias
start the allocation process within global market portfolio
Individuals exhibiting this bias will assess the likelihood of an outcome based on how easily they can recall the information.
a cognitive error, is an information-processing bias.
- may limit their investment opportunity set
- may choose an investment without doing a thorough analysis of the stock, may fail to diversify, and
- may not achieve an appropriate asset allocation.
overcome this bias by developing an appropriate investment policy strategy, with a focus on appropriate goals (short- and long-term), and having a disciplined approach to investment decision making.
loss aversion bias
disposition effect
goal based
prospect theory, loss averse
in which people tend to strongly prefer avoiding losses as oppose to achieving gain
investor behave as the evaluation of g/l based on reference point