Behavior Finance 7-9 Flashcards

1
Q

traditional finance

A

investors are rational, risk averse, self-interest utility maximizers
unlimited knowledge

neoclassical economics

market is efficient (EMH)

Bayer’s conditional probability

Utility theory

REM (rational economic man) use indifference.curve analysis

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2
Q

Behavior finance irrational/suboptimal

BPT
Behavioral portfolio theory:
1. constructed in layers 
2. concentrated in the low and high risk asset.
Median-risk asset tend to be ignored.

Mean variance considers correlation between assets and would be more likely to diversify across asset types.

A

psychological grounded

BFMI Micro: individual
emotional bias

BFMA Macro: market
efficiencies of markets

Bounded rationality - limitation on ability to process info
Prospect theory - loss averse, reference dependence to determine g/l leading to possible cognitive error
Satisfice
capacity limitation of knowledge

friedman - savage double inflection utility functon
很贫穷和很有钱会risk averse
在中间 risk seeking

sentiment risk

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3
Q

Risk averse

A

rational
concave
prefer certainty

pay to avoid

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4
Q

Risk seeking

A

convex
risk seeking
certainty equivalent : max(pay to participate)
max(accept to not participate)

pay to undertake

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5
Q
Perspective analysis (effort to use behavior finance)
Prospect theory ( how g/l are evaluated)
A

based on SEU subjective expected utility

Bounded rational is adequate, satisfied 满意

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6
Q

6 editing to simplify evolution of choices

A
codification
combination
segregation
cancellation
simplification
detection of dominance
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7
Q

weakform

A

technical cannot generate excess return

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8
Q

semi-strong

A

fundamentally cannot generate excess return

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9
Q

strong-form

A

no one can earn excess return

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10
Q

3 market anomalies

A

fundamental - P/E dividend yld
violation of both semi-strong and strong form efficiency

technical - violation of all 3 forms efficiencies
ST moving avg of price move above LT moving avg - buy signal
stock move below a support level - sell
stock move above a support level - buy

Calendar anomaly - small cap have abnormally high return in Jan last day of each month and first 4 days of each month

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11
Q

behavior portfolio construction

A

consumption and saving

Behavior portfolio theory (layer) focus on portfolio construction

Behavior asset pricing model postulates a sentiment premium should be included in asset pricing

adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) principal of evolution, success is defined as survival, markets change overtime, arbitrage opportunity get priced into the market. assumes successful market participants apply heuristics until they no longer work and then adjust them accordingly.

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12
Q

cognitive error 5

A
HIRCC
hindsight 
illusion of control
representativeness
conservatism
confirmation
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13
Q

Processing bias 4

A
FMAA
Framing
Mental accounting 
Anchoring
Availability
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14
Q

Emotional Bias 6

A
LOSSER
Loss aversion
overconfident
self-control
status quo
endowment 
regret-aversion
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15
Q

Conservatism

A

underweight new info

is a belief perseverance bias in which people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information

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16
Q

Confirmation

A

selective bias
Seeking data to support beliefs, discounting contradictory facts
ignore and undervalue what contradict their belief

a cognitive error, is a belief perseverance bias. Individuals who exhibit this bias look for confirmation of their belief and ignore any information which contradicts their belief.

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17
Q

representativeness bias

IPS

A

classifying info base on past experience

overweight most recent information

base rate neglect
- too little consideration given to the initial classification being correct

sample size neglect
-inferring too much from a small new sample of information

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18
Q

illusion of control

CAPM, mean variace framework

A

tend to believe they can control or influence outcomes

lead to excess trading

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19
Q

Hindsight bias

A

may see past events as having been p predictable and reasonable to expect

20
Q

Anchoring

A

overweight initial default number
stick to their original estimates/analysis

hold onto

21
Q

Mental Accounting

goal based

A

invest in layers
treat one sum of money differently from another equal-sized sum of money

layer/goals

22
Q

framing

provide a full range of relevant info

A

decision based on how case is presented

focus future and let go realized loss

23
Q

availability bias

start the allocation process within global market portfolio

A

Individuals exhibiting this bias will assess the likelihood of an outcome based on how easily they can recall the information.

a cognitive error, is an information-processing bias.

  1. may limit their investment opportunity set
  2. may choose an investment without doing a thorough analysis of the stock, may fail to diversify, and
  3. may not achieve an appropriate asset allocation.

overcome this bias by developing an appropriate investment policy strategy, with a focus on appropriate goals (short- and long-term), and having a disciplined approach to investment decision making.

24
Q

loss aversion bias
disposition effect

goal based

A

prospect theory, loss averse
in which people tend to strongly prefer avoiding losses as oppose to achieving gain

investor behave as the evaluation of g/l based on reference point

25
disposition effect
holding the investment that have experienced losses too long, and selling investment that have experience gains too quickly - limiting upside profit - trade excessively and hold risker portfolio
26
Myopic loss aversion (近视的)special application of loss aversion
explain for equity premium that describes an anomalously higher historical real returns of stocks over gov't bond combines time-horizon-based framing, mental accounting and loss-aversion bias more concerned with ST losses than LT results/gains over emphasis ST G/L and weight losses more heavily than gains resulting a higher equity risk premium
27
overconfidence | self-attribution bias
people demonstrate unwarranted faith in their intuitive reasoning, judgements, cognitive abilities. attribute success overestimated knowledge levels, ability and access to information underestimate risk and overestimate exp(r) trade excessively hold poorly diversified portfolio lower return than the market
28
self control bias
fail to act in pursuit of long-term goal because of lack of self-discipline. 1. hyperbolic discount tendency to prefer small payoffs now compare to large payoffs in the future 2. save/spend disposable income, spend today rather than save for tomorrow 3. st satisfaction conflict lt goal/achievement
29
status quo bias
do nothing, stay the same Status quo bias reflects the tendency for forecasts to recent observations and then avoid making changes. Status quo bias can be mitigated by a disciplined effort to avoid anchoring on the status quo. need education
30
endowment bias
emotional attachment people value an asset more when they hold rights to it than when they do not. Refuse to sell.
31
regret aversion bias
avoid making decisions made out of fear that the decision will turnout poorly error of commission - action taken error of omission -action non-taken need education
32
behavior modified asset allocation
the wealthier the client, the more the practitioner should and adopt to the client's behavioral biases standard living risk - the likelihood of achieve outliving his/her asset if a function of the level of wealth cognitive error should be moderated (easier to correct by education) emotional biases should be adapted to
33
Barnewall two-way model
passive | active
34
BB-K five way model | level of confidence & method of action
ACIG Adventurer - confident and impetuous 浮躁 unwilling to take advice Celebrity - anxious and impetuous seeks and take advice Individualist - confident and careful good to work with Guardian - anxious and careful seek advice from someone more knowledgable
35
Pompian behavior model
BITS PFIA FROM LOWEST RISK TO HIGH ``` PP, FF,II,AA Passive preserver emotional friendly follower cognitive independent individualist cognitive active accumulator emotional ```
36
Passive preserver Pompian behavior model primarily emotional bias
- not financially sophisicated - low risk tolerance - not willing to risk own capital display emotional biases focus of advice should be on addressing these emotions. Describing how the investment relationship will help to accomplish goals would seem most appropriate.
37
naive diversification (framing bias)
1/n divide contribution equally among available funds ignoring the issue of correlation and true diversification. consequence: * Maintaining an under-diversified portfolio with assets having high correlations with each other. * Missing long-term objectives—not achieving the required returns or capital accumulation necessary to meet long-term expenses or goals, and potentially outliving the assets.
38
Social proof bias
individual are bias to follow the belief of a group
39
bounded rationality
recognizes that people are not fully rational when making decisions and do not necessarily optimize but rather satisfice when arriving at their decisions
40
two reason for poor decision by investment committees: 1. decisions reflect the biases of the members. 2. social proof or herding as each member seeks to follow the beliefs of other members view
actions to take to avoid: assemble a diverse group of knowlegedgable members follow an agenda assure all members share
41
The gambler’s fallacy
is a cognitive behavioral bias in which an analyst wrongly projects a reversal to a long-term trend. Misunderstands mean reversion in assuming below average rates must return to above-average rates in a specific time period.
42
Limitations of classifying investors into the various behavioral investor types include:
1. investor can display both emotional biases and cognitive errors, making it difficult to classify the individual according to behavioral biases. 2. may display traits of more than one behavioral investor type, making it difficult to place the individual into a single category. 3. As investors age, they will most likely go through behavioral changes 4. Even though two individuals may fall into the same behavioral investor type, the individuals should not necessarily be treated the same due to their unique circumstances and psychological traits. 5. Individuals tend to act irrationally at unpredictable times because they are subject to their own specific psychological traits and personal circumstances. In other words, people don't all act irrationally (or rationally) at the same time.
43
deviation from a rational portfolio
for cognitive error high wealth low SLR moderate 5-10% low wealth high SLR close to rational 0-3% for emotional bias high wealth low SLR 10-15% low wealth high SLR 5-10%
44
friendly follower FF | primarily cognitive bia
an often overestimate his or her risk tolerance, may follow “hot” ideas and show availability bias, follow leads from friends/colleagues, want to be in the latest/popular investment without considering LT goal low/moderate risk tolerance overestimate risk tolerance
45
independent individualist II | primarily cognitive bias
overconfident, self contribution strong skilled moderate/high risk tolerance strong-willed do own research
46
active accumulator AA | primarily emotional bias
entrepreneur background, strong skilled confident, self-control higher turnover rate, involved in decision making