Backlash against the LIO

Question 1

Automation and technology effects

Answer 1

• Many of the lost jobs blamed on foreign competition are due to technological change
  – Research indicates 80% of manufacturing jobs lost are due to technology
• Manufacturing has risen in the US and EU if measured by total output and not employment

Question 2

Rodrik’s trilemma

Answer 2

States it is impossible for countries to simultaneously achieve:
- Hyper globalization
– No political or cultural barriers to the flow of goods and investment
- Sovereignty
– Pursue the policies that it chooses
- Democracy
– Liberty and political equality

Question 3

Backlash to globalization (material vs non-material) possibilities

Answer 3

• It is real and driven by economic anxiety / competition
• It is real but driven by “othering” or ethnic / racial hostility
• It isn’t real, globalization is being blamed for other things
  – Domestic policies that drive inequality
  – Automation and robots
• Everything is fine, there is no backlash

Question 4

Rodrik’s trilemma example

Answer 4

• Global governance (the EU)
  – Globalization + democratic politics
• Bretton Woods compromise
  – Democratic politics + nation state
• Golden straightjacket (19th century)
  – Nation state + globalization

Question 5

Was Trump I a response to globalization?

Answer 5

• Some evidence that exposure to manufacturing job losses leads to less support for incumbents
• Though, Trump supporters are not the poorest in the country, their income is higher than non-Trump voters on average
• Trump support is empirically driven more by “othering” or cultural backlash