AMA Q22 - Chapter 2 Flashcards
Time series definition
a series of values or figures recorded over time
What does T mean?
Trend
How is a trend noticed?
Evaluating whether there are moving averages in a particular value
SV
Seasonal Variation
How is a Seasonal Variation observed?
A smaller and shorter trend that counters the overall long-term trend that is predictable
TS
Time Series Forecast
Formula for TS
TS = T + SV
How do you calculate a trend across a moving average?
determine how often the seasonal variations are (must be even) and then divide each seasonal period by an individual period
What is the criteria for a centred moving average?
The seasonal variations are an even number; must not be odd
How do you calculate a centred moving average?
You average the moving average
formula for the Multiplicative Model
TS = T x SV
Linear Regressions
Predicting a value based on the assumption that a known value has a linear relationship to the unknown value
Index Number
The average change in a group of different items. Can be used to inflate/deflate future/past datasets for forecasting
Basket
An sub-group within an index number
Base Period (Index numbers)
the period in a time series that yields the index of 100