AICP methods and spatial Flashcards
Ratio/Step-down Method:
Less technically complicated, good for smaller area projections. The farther out the projection, the more the margin of error.
Step-Down/Ratio
An area’s population is proportionally derived from projections of a larger region to which the area belongs.
1933 Central Place Theory - Christaller
Central Place Theory was developed by Walter Christaller in 1933 as a way to understand the distribution of cities and towns. The theory is based on two main concepts: range (the maximum distance consumers are willing to travel for a service) and threshold (the minimum market needed to support a service).
Homer Hoyt
Created the sector model, also known as the Hoyt model, is a model of urban land use proposed in 1939 by land economist Homer Hoyt.[1] It is a modification of the concentric zone model of city development. The benefits of the application of this model include the fact it allows for an outward progression of growth. As with all simple models of such complex phenomena, its validity is limited.
Concentration
degree to which development is located in relatively few square miles. Sprawl covers greatest land
Continuity
degree to which devlopable land is built upon at urban density in unbroken fashion
Proximity
degree to which different land uses are close to each other. Often jobs-housing balance
Net Migration Pop Est
derived through the difference between the overall population growth rate and the rate of natural increase (the difference between the birth rate and the death rate) during the same period.
Demographic analysis types
Descriptive – tools, data, and methods to describe the population of an area § Trends – look at how demographic data has changed over time § Projections – estimates of future population and population structure
Concentric Circle Theory
Developed by Ernest Burgess in 1925, the Concentric Circle Theory was based on his belief that cities grow in a series of five outward rings. That is, land uses were determined based on distance from the downtown core. The innermost ring was the Central Business District (CBD) which contained government, office, and commercial functions. The second ring contained industrial uses. The third ring was a transition zone, including a mixture of industry and low-income housing. The fourth ring was where working men resided. The fifth ring was for high-class residential suburbs. This theory has also been referred to as the Invasion/Succession Theory.
A stratified sampling type
Divides a given population into classes
Symptomatic Population estimates
Estimation method includes using data such as building permits, voter registrations, and electric meter hookups
Nuclearity
extent to which the urban area is characterized by a mononuclear or polynuclear development pattern. Edge cities have many employment nodes
3 major components of demographic analysis:
Fertility Mortality Migration
Edge City
From 1985 to present, suburbanization has only continued and we’ve seen a rise of the megaburb and edge city. An Edge City is when a new concentration of businesses, shopping, and entertainment forms outside of the traditional urban area in what had been considered the suburban or rural area of the city, making the area more selfcontained. Fairfax, Virginia is identified as a common example of an Edge City. In 1991, Joel Garreau popularized the term and established five rules for a place to be deemed an edge city. 1. An edge city must have more than five million square feet of office space which hosts 20,000 to 50,000 workers. 2. An edge city must have retail space exceeding 600,000 square feet. 3. There must be more jobs than bedrooms in an edge city. 4. It must be perceived as one place by the population. 5. An edge city should be nothing like a city 30 years prior
Gant Chart, Bubble Chart, Flow Chart, matrix
Gantt Chart:Primarily used in project management to track task progress, dependencies, and deadlines over time.
Bubble Chart:Useful for visualizing relationships between multiple data points where one dimension is represented by the size of the bubble.
Flow Chart: Represents a process or workflow with clear steps and connections, often used to document procedures.
Matrix:A structured way to organize data in rows and columns, allowing for comparisons and analysis across different variables.
Extrapolation Methods:
Good at the county level, bases growth on observed growth trends, watch out for mitigating factors.
In-person survey
good for deeper questions/follow ups
Telephone Survey
Hard to get people to answer or cell phone users
1945 Multiple Nuclei Theory - Harris and Ullman
Harris and Ullman argued that cities do not grow around a single nucleus, but rather several separate nuclei. Each nucleus acts like a growth point. The theory was formed based on the idea that people have greater movement due to increased car ownership.Harris and Ullman argued that cities do not grow around a single nucleus, but rather several separate nuclei. Each nucleus acts like a growth point. The theory was formed based on the idea that people have greater movement due to increased car ownership.
Multiple Nuclei Theory
Harris and Ullman developed the Multiple Nuclei Theory in 1945, which stated that cities developed a series of specific land use nuclei. A land use nuclei formed as a result of access to natural resources, land prices, and the clustering of similar land uses. For instance, certain land uses take advantage of one anothers facilities and dependencies. This theory best explains cities with more than one Central Business District.
Sector Theory
Homer Hoyt developed the Sector Theory in 1939. Hoyt did not agree with the concentric circle theory and argued instead that land use was linked to transportation routes. As a result of transportation, cities developed as a series of sectors radiating out from the Central Business District. Commercial and industry followed transportation routes tightly, while expensive housing moved toward open spaces. Less expensive housing fell wherever land was left.
Centrality
how close the development is located to the CBD.
Clustering
how tightly bunched development is to minimize developed land. Focuses on development patterns within individual grids.
1925 Concentric Ring Theory - Ernest Burgess
In 1925, sociologist Ernest Burgess developed the concentric zone theory, also known as the Burgess model, to explain how cities grow and develop. The theory suggests that cities expand outward in concentric rings, with each ring having a different land use.
Explanation
The model is based on Burgess’s observations of Chicago from the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
The model’s central idea is that as a city grows, it expands outward in concentric rings, with each ring having a different land use.
The model is based on the idea that cities grow through a process of invasion and succession.
The model assumes that there is a correlation between distance from the city center and economic status.
The model assumes that wealthier people live further away from the city center.
Zones
Central Business District (CBD): The center of the model
Transition zone: A zone of mixed residential and commercial uses
Low-class residential homes: Inner suburbs with significant poverty and a large immigrant population
Middle-class homes: Outer suburbs with better quality housing
Commuters zone: A zone with higher quality housing and longer commuting costs
Limitations
The model doesn’t apply universally because not all cities are built on flat land.
The model has many assumptions that make it difficult to apply to other cities.
Input-Output Analysis
input–output model is a quantitative economic model that represents the interdependencies between different sectors of a national economy or different regional economies.A main use of input–output analysis is to measure the economic impacts of events as well as public investments or programs as shown by IMPLAN and Regional Input–Output Modeling System. It is also used to identify economically related industry clusters and also so-called “key” or “target” industries (industries that are most likely to enhance the internal coherence of a specified economy). By linking industrial output to satellite accounts articulating energy use, effluent production, space needs, and so on, input–output analysts have extended the approaches application to a wide variety of uses.
Greenfield Leapfrog
Leapfrog development occurs when developers skip over land to obtain cheaper land further away from cities, thus, leaving huge areas empty between the city and the new development. It can be seen when it comes to the development or urbanization of more rural areas.
This type of survey is inexpensive but does not work well with the elderly or the poorly educated
Mailed Survey
Post-WW2 population trends
mass migration - inner city white ppl move to the suburbs- Norther whites went from Rust Belt to Sun Belt (CA to FL)- black ppl left south to move north to rust belt- increased suburban sprawl, because of housing programs to support homeownership, GI Bill, and investment during the war of transportation infrastructure.As ppl moved to suburbs in white flight, those left behind in cities were african american. Left a pattern of residential segregation in housing, transportation and education. Redlining and restrictive covenants became banned in 1968 Civil Rights Act (although could be considered still around in other ways)
Mixed Scanning
Mixed Scanning was described by Amitai Etzioni was a compromise between rational planning and incremental planning, as it views planning through a big picture and small picture. Etzioni introduced Mixed Scanning as a rational analysis of alternatives but with implementation completed incrementally. The theory acknowledges the differences between policy decisions and implementation decisions. For example, the development PLANNING CERTIFICATION Fundamental Planning Knowledge 13 of a comprehensive plan would be completed rationally; however, implementing the future land uses would be done incrementally.
Pay as you go
Pay-As-You-Go: one of the more common ways agencies finance capital improvement
Symptomatic Methods:
Regression analysis can be used for small areas.
Edgeless Cities
Robert Lang (2002)- large, isolated suburban office complexes sprawling from urban environmens. Typically not accessible by transit or pedestrian friendly.
Colonial Street System
Savannah GA development (1773) General Oglethorpe laid out city in a series of grids, wide open streets and public squares. Squares would be meeting places. Considered first planned city, still generally the same.
Synoptic Population estimates
Surveillance of the few by the many
Cohort Component (aka Cohort Survival)
Technically complicated, lots of data, good for large area projections like states or large metropolitan areas.
1939 Sector Theory - Homer Hoyt
The “1939 Sector Theory” refers to a model of urban land use development proposed by economist Homer Hoyt in 1939, which is often called the “Hoyt Sector Model” and describes cities as expanding outward in pie-shaped sectors along transportation routes, with different land uses like residential areas of varying income levels occupying distinct sectors radiating from the city center.
Key points about the Hoyt Sector Theory:
Focus on Transportation:
Unlike earlier models, Hoyt emphasized the role of transportation corridors, like major roads and railways, in shaping urban development and influencing where different land uses would locate.
Sectoral Pattern:
The theory suggests that cities grow in “sectors” - wedge-shaped areas extending outwards from the central business district, with each sector containing a dominant land use like high-class residential, industrial, or low-income housing.
Socioeconomic Differentiation:
Hoyt’s model highlights how different socioeconomic groups tend to cluster within specific sectors based on their access to transportation and desired amenities.
Criticisms of the Hoyt Sector Model:
Oversimplification:
Critics argue that the model may not accurately represent the complex and dynamic nature of urban development in all cities, especially in the age of car-based transportation.
Limited Applicability:
Some argue that the model may not apply well to cities with unique geographic features or transportation networks that significantly deviate from a radial pattern.
1964 Urban Realm - Vance v
The “1964 Urban Realm” refers to the “Urban Realms Model” developed by geographer James E. Vance in 1964, which describes a city as composed of multiple, semi-autonomous “realms” - essentially smaller urban areas with their own centers, each functioning somewhat independently but interconnected through transportation routes, primarily driven by the rise of suburbanization and car-dependent living.
Ernest Burgess
The concentric zone model, also known as the Burgess model or the CCD model, is one of the earliest theoretical models to explain urban social structures.
Sector Theory
This theory of human settlement states that development radiates out from the CBD and follows major transportation routes
Growth Management
Tools like UGB to contain sprawl and ensure services can meet demand
Targets vs estimates vs projections vs forcasts
v Targets: express desirable future populations based on policies and goals. v Estimates: measure of a present or past condition that cannot be measured directly because of a lack of resources (data, time, money). v Projections: conditional statement about the future, describing what the future is likely to be if a given set of assumptions proves to be true; typically based on statistical models that extrapolate past and present trends into the future. Projections can be created through very simple or very complex calculations, the type of calculation used is based on available data and desired use of the projection. v Forecasts: conditional statement about the future, describing what the future is likely to be; typically based on statistical models, but reflecting and incorporating the decisions and judgment of the analyst with respect to various factors.
Growth Management Strategies
§ Comprehensive Planning & Regulations § Urban Growth Boundary § Infrastructure Planning & Funding § Environmental Regulations
