9 | Planning for Risk Flashcards
In this lesson, you will: • Create a risk management plan. • Identify project risks and triggers. • Perform qualitative risk analysis. • Perform quantitative risk analysis. • Develop a risk response plan.
Risk?
A risk is an uncertain event that may have either a positive or negative effect on the project. Its
primary components are a measure of probability that a risk will occur and the impact of the risk on
a project.
Some common ways to classify risk are?
- Effect based classification
- Source based classification
- Level of uncertainty
Negative Risks?
Negative risks are risks that have a negative impact on the project. These can also be referred to as threats. Project managers strive to prevent these risks from occurring or reduce their impact.
Positive Risks?
Positive risks are risks that when taken, produce a positive project outcome. These can also be referred to as opportunities.
Effect-Based Risk Classification?
Is a method of analyzing the way that risks to a project could impact its success. A risk can have an effect on time, cost, quality, and scope. All these effects are interrelated; therefore, any changes to one element will affect all the others.
A project manager may choose to use effect-based risk classification for a complex project in which many of the risk factors are interrelated, such as a large-scale corporate endeavor or initiative in which many departments, teams, and external resources are participating. Any one department’s failure to produce will impact on the rest of the project.
Source-Based Risk Classification?
Is a method of analyzing risk in terms of its origins. Sources may be internal or external to the project, and technical, nontechnical, industry-specific, or generic.
For a project requiring internal and external resources, such as an advertising campaign, a project manager may classify the risks in terms of where they originate. One source of risk could be the potential rise in the price of advertising time on network television, which could affect cost and scope. Another source of risk could be the failure of an external advertising agency to meet its
deadlines, which would affect the schedule and scope.
Project risks are of two types?
- Business risk
2. Insurable risk
Business Risk?
A business risk is one that is inherent in a business endeavor, such as when a company assumes that it will spend money and make money, and that any project undertaken carries with it the potential for success or failure, profit or loss.
Insurable Risk?
Insurable risk is a risk that has only the potential for loss and no potential for profit or gain. An insurable risk is one for which insurance may be purchased to reduce or offset the possible loss?
What are the 4 business risk types?
- Competitive
- Legislative
- Monetary
- Operational
Competitive business risk?
Risks such as the risk of increased competition in the marketplace and a rival company developing a superior product.
Legislative business risk?
Risks such as the risk of new laws or changes in regulations governing your products, goods, or services, that require your company to spend more to maintain compliance.
Monetary business risk?
Risks such as the risk of increased prices for raw materials, increased taxes, increased operating costs, and losses due to nonpayment by customers.
Operational business risk?
Risks such as the risk of fraud, theft, employee injury, workplace accidents, and damage to equipment.
What are the 4 types of insurable risk?
- Direct property
- Indirect property
- Liability
- Personnel-related
Direct property insurable risk?
Risk of property damage due to weather, fire, and so on.
Indirect property insurable risk?
Risk of additional expenditures needed to recover from property loss.
Liability insurable risk?
Risk of needing to make good after causing damage to another.
Personnel-related insurable risk?
Liability risk for damage to employees.
Probability Scales?
A probability scale is a graph showing the assignment of value to the likelihood of a risk occurring. Probability scales are designed using a variety of values, such as linear, nonlinear, or an ordinal scale using relative probability values ranging from not very unlikely to almost certain. A risk’s probability score can range in value from 0.0 (no probability) to 1.0 (certainty). While this is a common way to assign probability, any other set of values can be used instead—for example one to five, or one to
ten.
What are the 4 Principle of Probability?
- Sum of probabilities
- Probability of single event
- Mean
- Median
- Standard deviation
Sum of probabilities?
The sum of the probabilities of all possible events must be equal to 1 (100%).
Probability of single event?
The probability of any single event must be greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.
Mean?
The sum of the events divided by the number of occurrences.
Median?
The number that separates the higher half of a probability distribution from the lower half. It is not the same as the average, although the two terms are often confused.
Standard deviation?
This is the measure of the spread of the data, or the statistical dispersion of the values in your data set.
Probability Distribution?
Probability distribution is the scattering of values assigned to likelihood in a sample population. It can be visually depicted in the form of a Probability Density Function (PDF). In a PDF, the vertical axis refers to the probability of a particular value that is depicted on the horizontal axis. The zero on the horizontal axis represents the mean, and the plus and minus numbers represent standard
deviations from the mean.
Probability can be assigned?
- Subjectively
2. Objectively
Subjective probability?
Is based on people’s opinions, which may be shaped by information, experience, and attitude. Even if they are given the same set of facts, they may make very different determinations of the probability of an event.
Objective probability?
Objective probability is deduced mathematically.
The Normal Distribution PDF?
A normal distribution PDF results when there is a symmetrical range or variation in the probabilities of each outcome. Visually, the data is distributed symmetrically in the shape of a bell with a single peak, resulting in the common term bell curve. The peak represents the mean; the symmetry indicates that there are an equal number of occurrences above and below the mean.
The Triangular Distribution PDF?
A triangular distribution PDF results when there is an asymmetrical distribution of probabilities. Visually, the data is skewed to one side, indicating that an activity or element presents relatively little risk to project objectives. If either the probability of occurrence is low or the impact is low, then this necessarily indicates that there is little risk.
Impact Scale?
is a rating system of values that reflect the magnitude of the impact of a risk event on project objectives. The impact scale can be ordinal, using values of very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Numbers are assigned to these values. To improve the integrity and quality of the
data and make the processes consistent and repeatable, organizations typically develop definitions for each value to help the risk management team assign each risk’s impact score consistently.
What are the 5 impact ratings?
- 1 - Very low
- 3 - Low
- 5 - Moderate
- 7 - High
- 9 - Very high
Impact Rating | 1 - Very low?
If this risk occurs, the impact on the project’s objectives would be minor and not noticeable outside the project
Impact Rating | 3 - Low?
If this risk occurs, the impact on the project’s objectives would be minor but noticeable to the customer or sponsor.
Impact Rating | 5 - Moderate?
If this risk occurs, the impact to the project’s objectives would be significant and would create customer or sponsor dissatisfaction with the project.
Impact Rating | 7 - High?
If this risk occurs, the impact on the project would be significant and would create major customer or sponsor dissatisfaction. The project would be in jeopardy.
Impact Rating | 9 - Very high?
If this risk occurs, the impact would be catastrophic. The project would be cancelled.
Levels of Uncertainty?
Levels of uncertainty describe the risks of a project based on how much is known about the source and effect of the risk.
What are the 3 Levels of Uncertainty?
- Knowns
- Known-unknowns
- Unknown-unknowns