4 scenarios future of the EU

Question 1

1st scenario on the future of the EU?

Answer 1

disintegration

• hypernationalism, insecurity (Brexit hints at this)
• total disintegration is unlikely
• If the euro fails, then Europe fails
• confederalization rather than system failure

Question 2

2nd scenario future of the EU?

Answer 2

piecemeal adjustment

• ”muddling through”, Crisis management through more ad-hoc solutions, Based on ‚common concerns’ of the member states
• example: (Fiscal Compact, European Semester)

Question 3

3rd scenario future of the EU?

Answer 3

• functional federalism
• more adaptation, more europe
• EU would share a Banking Union, Fiscal Integration, an integrated economic policy framework, and democratic legitimacy and accountability

Question 4

4th scenario future of Europe?

Answer 4

• United States of Europe
• Jacques Delors first to speak of a Federation of nation-states
• Centralization of power and competence in the EU
• “democratic federation” goes beyond the multiple fiscal and economic unions
• prospects not strong bc it would be hard to work with the electorates of the member states