4: Environmental & Competitor Analysis

Question 1

Forecasting

Answer 1

Top down: central person takes control and prepares overall forecast

Bottom up: each part of firm prepares own sales forecast, and parts are aggregated to create forecast for firm as a whole

Question 2

Forecasting methods

Answer 2

Statistical methods - useful in establishing firms for established products, more accurate, but assumes future looks like past.
observation - based on what people do but not possible for for new to world products
surveys
analogy investigates similar products. Adv: requires no history or prior examples, useful for new to world products. But proposed new products never like analogy is drawn, market and competitive conditions may differ.
judgement: cheap and fast but high risk.
market tests: closest to true market, but expensive, competitors can distort market conditions.

Question 3

Adoption process

Answer 3

Awareness, interest, evaluate, trial, adoption.

Speeding up product process: relative advantage, compatible, complexity, trialability, visibility

Speeding up customer process: innovativeness, risk perception, need deficient

Question 4

Identifying competitors

Answer 4

Five forces
Customer based - if they don’t spend money with me, who will they spend it on?
Strategic groups - similar in way they approach business but not the same.

Question 5

Potential competitors

Answer 5

Market expansion, product expansion, backward/forward integration, export assets/skills.

Understanding competitors: size, growth and profitability, strengths and weaknesses, cost structure and exit barriers, objectives and assumptions, current and past strategies, organisation and culture.

Question 6

7 domains

Answer 6

Macro mirco market industry

Market attractiveness Q1: PESTLE

Industry attractiveness Q2: 5 forces

Mark att at micro level: for a given product offering opp are most attractive when there is - clarity, unique customer value, sustaining target, scalability

Ind att at micro level: has a SCA (processes, people, dist, customer access, capabilities, resources), company’s business model is economically viable

CSF (skills to succeed), mission, network and connections across value chain

Team domain:does opp fit with what we want to do? Do we have resources and org competencies? Right connections and business networks?