28.) Voting Behaviour and Key British Elections Flashcards
Give some reasons that determine voting behaviour?
-Candidate’s personality
-Attractiveness and relevance of manifesto promises
-Influence of social/mass media - tv debates, newspapers etc
-Voter characteristics - gender, ethnicity, class etc
-Individual’s political views
-Performance of current government
-Voting for ‘least bad’ option
-Nature of electoral system - not wasting votes
Name two models for analysing voting behaviour?
-Primacy model: long term factors, class, age and ethnicity. It assumes voters are stable, and only switch parties when their party doesn’t represent them anymore
-Recency model: focus on short term, like issues within the party and leadership. Suggests voting is more volatile.
Name some trends in voter behaviours based on class?
Traditionally working class = Labour
Traditionally middle class = Tory
What has changed this class-based trend?
Class dealignment: due to voters placing less importance on their class today, it means they’re more willing to vote for traditional parties of other classes
Name some other factors which have changed voting behaviours?
-Partisan dealignment: due to parties being less class-based, voters more likely to shop around for their ideal party
-Swing voters: voters votes no longer assured for specific parties so parties have to work harder to appeal to groups
-Identity politics: campaigning around issues core to one’s identity, due to people possessing multiple identities it means they have complicated opinions and reasons for voting the way they do
How does age affect voting preference?
-Older voters are typically more likely to vote Conservative
-Younger voters more likely to vote Labour
Give some figures regarding age and voting?
-2019 General Election - 67% over 70s more likely to vote Tory, while only 21% of 18-24 year olds were likely to vote Tory.
-In the same election - only 14% of over 70s vote Labour, while 56% 18-24 year olds did
What are some potential reasons for the age differences in vote patterns in 2019?
-Brexit: older voters were leave, while younger voters were remain
-Older voters are more socially conservative on immigration where Tories are seen as tough. Whereas Labour values things like climate change more, appealing to younger voters
-Younger voters have less job security so Labour appeals to them, opposed to the more well-off voting Tory
What was the background of the 1983 General Election?
-UK’s military victory over Argentina in the Falklands War
-One of Labour’s worst electoral defeats
-Tories increased majority to 144
-Split vote between Labour and SDP-Liberal Alliance
What was a big issue affecting Labour in 1983?
The Gang of Four (Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Bill Rodgers, Shirley Williams) defecting and creating SDP-Liberal Alliance
What was notable about the Tory vote share in 1983?
-3.8% swing to Tories from Labour
-Tory vote share fell from 43.9% to 42.4%
Why did Labour finish third in 292 out of 650 constituencies?
Because of the SDP-Liberal Alliance splitting the Labour vote
How many seats did the Tories win in 1983?
397 - 13 million votes
How many seats did the SDP-Liberal Alliance win?
23 - 7.8 million votes
How many seats did Labour win in 1983?
209 - 8.4 million votes
What were some figures from the 1983 election?
-Tories - 8% lead in the C2 social class (skilled working class)
-Reduced Labour’s lead with the DE (semi/unskilled working class) from 15% to 8%
-20% lead for over 55 year olds
What was the issue for Labour with the press in 1983?
-Only 22% of newspapers supporting Labour were in circulation, the rest pushed readers to vote for Margaret Thatcher
Why was Labour’s 1983 manifesto - A New Hope for Britain criticised?
Too left wing, with policies like unilateral nuclear disarmament and abolishing the House of Lords
What name was given by Gerald Kaufman to Labour Manifesto?
“The longest suicide note in history…”
Why was a statement by party leader Michael Foot and deputy leader Denis Healey criticised?
It confirmed there were disagreements over defence policy and showed the party wasn’t united
What was the name of the Conservative manifesto?
Forward - the Challenge of Our Times
What were some policies promised by the Tories in their 1983 manifesto?
-Trade union reforms (must have secret ballots or less right to strike)
-Privatising more companies - BT, British Airways
What image did the Tories present in contrast to Labour?
One of party unity - helped by them having a lead from the start in the polls
How did the Tories campaigning help their election?
-Modern
-Thatcher travelling around the country on her ‘superbus’ meeting voters and getting the best publicity
What was SDP-Liberal Alliance’s 1983 manifesto called?
Working Together for Britain
What were some policies in the SDP-Liberal 1983 manifesto?
-Reduce unemployment by a million
-Introduce proportional representation
-Devolution for Scotland and Wales
How did the 1983 election affect the Tories future policies?
Their huge majority (144) allowed them to push ahead with privatisation, take on the miners unions and win - giving Thatcher further appearances of power
How did the 1983 election affect Labour’s future policies?
It lead to the wilderness years, which ended in 1997 with the election of Tony Blair, and a gradual move to a more centrist party platform
What did the 1983 election demonstrate about FPTP?
It heavily punished third parties - SDP-Liberal Alliance - 23% of seats in Parliament would not be held by their winning MPs if PR was in place instead of FPTP
How much of the vote share did the SDP-Liberal Alliance receive?
23% - 2% less than Labour, but only got 23 seats, 186 less than Labour
What was the background to the 1997 election?
-Labour on the ascendancy: had lost 1987, 1992 elections but had gained seats in both.
-Labour had become more centrist, with Clause IV rewritten and the curbing of trade union vote blocs
In 1992 what event happened which helped the perception that the Conservatives were no longer the best party for the economy?
Britain leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) - causing the Pound’s devaluation and a rise in interest rates
How many seats did Labour win in 1997?
418 (+145)
How many seats did the Tories win in 1997?
165 (-171)
Name two areas where the Tory vote share fell and by what amount in 1997?
-London: -14.1%
-South-East: -13.1%
What other memorable statistics are there from the 1997 election?
-120 women MPs, a record, elected (101 Labour)
-Labour won an equal amount of the C1 class (lower middle class) to the Tories for the 1st time
-Labour defeated the Tories in every age group
Why is 1997 noticeable regarding the media?
The Sun - a traditionally Tory supporting newspaper, backed Labour leader Tony Blair
What is noticeable about the newspapers supporting Labour in 1997?
That a majority of readers (62%) read them
What was Labour’s message for the 1997 Election?
“Our case is simple: that Britain can and must be better…”
What was New Labour’s attitude to welfare in 1997?
Personal responsibility emphasised, rights come with responsibilities but committed to welfare
What was New Labour’s attitude to law in 1997?
“Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime…” Also cracking down on anti social behaviour
What was New Labour’s attitude to state reform and rights in 1997?
Reform the Lords, more devolution across the UK regions and bring the ECHR into British law
What was New Labour’s attitude to education in 1997?
Rejected old tripartite system and instead wanted to modernise comprehensive schools to give students unique experiences that work for them
What was New Labour’s attitude to healthcare in 1997?
Cut waiting lists and reduce NHS bureaucracy
What was New Labour’s attitude to the economy?
Balancing government spending, no raise of income tax, and national minimum wage introduced
Why would the Conservatives struggle in 1997?
Due to being in power for 18 years - the electorate was tired and Tories couldn’t make themselves look fresh
What was the Tory education plan in 1997?
Publish school exam results, and encourage academics at A-level
What was the Tory’s other manifesto policies?
More privatisation (Royal Mail), no devolution, greater use of CCTV, income tax reduced to 20% and crackdowns on benefit fraud
How was Blair seen?
Young, charismatic and trustworthy
Why was Labour’s deputy prime minster important?
John Prescott was the bridge to traditional working class voters with his non-university background
Why was the Tory leader, John Major mocked?
Viewed as boring
What was the issue for the Tories in 1997?
Heavily divided over Europe - John Major ‘put up or shut up’, and Tony Blair - “I lead my party, he follows his.”
Why did the Tories “New Labour, New Danger” campaign backfire
It made Tories look desperate, got 150 complaints and 64% of public disapproved
What policies did Blair introduce that alienated his voters?
-Tuition fees (1997)
-Iraq invasion (2003)
By 2010, what style of conservatism had the Tories adopted under Cameron?
One Nation Conservatism
In 1997, what was the vote share compared to share of MPs?
Labour: 43.2% of votes, 63.4% MPs
Tories: 30.7% of votes, 25% MPs
LibDems: 16% of votes, 7% MPs
Others: 9.3% of votes, 4.6% MPs
What are the takeaways from the 1997 election?
Largest majority of the 20th century, won by youthful opposition leader against old governing party, also continued Thatcherist policies under New Labour
In 2019 what was significant about the Labour election results?
-They lost the Red Wall - working class Northern English seats like Bolsover, Blyth Valley and Sedgefield
-There was an 18% swing from Labour to the Tories in one seat (Bassetlaw) for example
In terms of age and class, what was noticeable about the 2019 election?
The Tories outperformed Labour across all social classes doing better among working class (C2DE - 48%) voters than ABC1 (43%) middle class voters
What was the gender split for the two main parties in 2019?
Tories: 46%(M) 44%(F)
Labour: 31%(M) 35%(F)
Where did Labour spend more money when it comes to social media?
What event dominated social media discussion in 2019?
Brexit
What other trend could be noticed regarding social media in 2019?
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) had much higher social media engagement than Boris Johnson (Conservative)
What key issue was the sole focus of the 2019 election manifestos?
How the parties would handle Brexit
What did the Tory manifesto promise in 2019?
To ‘Get Brexit Done’, 50,000 new nurses and no VAT, income tax or NI rises, also no one having to sell their house to pay for social care ‘dementia tax’ (grey vote)
What did Labour’s manifesto promise in 2019?
2nd referendum after renegotiated Brexit deal, ‘Final Say on Brexit’, 4.3% annual increase on healthcare, nationalisation of certain industries (energy, mail), and ending private school’s charitable status
What was the LibDem manifesto in 2019?
Revoke Article 50, 35 hours free social care, extra £10 billion for schools
What was the issue with Labour’s slogan ‘Final Say on Brexit’?
Many people thought that Brexit had been decided in 2016
Why was Corbyn disliked in 2019?
Too metropolitan, appealed to middle class urbanites and not working class voters
Why was the LibDem campaign a failure in 2019?
Ignored democracy, alienated voters, led to unclear messaging as opposition to Brexit was ditched due to how badly it was perceived
Why was FPTP significant in 2019?
