1.4: Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
1
Q
What factors affect voting behaviour, turnout and trends?
A
SOCIAL FACTORS THAT AFFECT VOTING BEHAVIOUR
1. Class
- Partisanship and voting attachment
- Region
- Age
- Ethnicity
- Education
- Gender
- Governing Competence
- Leadership
- Campaigns
- Manifestos
- Issue/Instrumental Voting
- Media
2
Q
What are the different voting classes?
A
VOTING CLASSES
A - Higher managerial, professional (judges, top civil servants, company directors) [Upper Middle Class].
B - Middle managers, professionals (teachers, lawyers, accountants) [Middle Class].
C1 - Clerical workers, white-collar, junior managerial roles, shop owners [Lower Middle Class].
C2 - Skilled workers (builders, electricians, hairdressers) [Aspirational Working Class].
D - Semi-skilled, unskilled factory workers [Working Class].
E - Casual workers, long-term unemployment, those elderly who rely solely on the state pension [Working Class].
3
Q
How does Social Class affect voting behaviour?
A
SOCIAL CLASS
- Conservatives
a) Traditionally, Conservatives tend to rely on the support of A, B and C1 voters.
- Appeals to deferential and patriotic working-class voters.
b) EXAMPLE. Alec Douglas-Home won 78% of AB voters in 1964.
c) EXAMPLE. Edward Heath achieved victory over Harold Wilson in 1970.
- Partisan dealignment as the Conservatives won many traditional Labour seats following Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968, with many of the white working-class felt that immigration would be more tightly controlled by the Conservatives (Issue voting).
d) EXAMPLE. Thatcher dissociated her party from being too middle class by launching her campaign in Labour-supporting Cardiff in 1979.
- The campaign focused on controlling inflation and confronted trade-union power following the excessive striking during the ‘Winter of Discontent’.
- Gave the Conservatives an 11% swing by the C2 class and a 9% swing by DE voters (Essex man). - Labour
a) Traditionally, Labour’s core support comes from C2, D and E voters
b) EXAMPLE. Harold Wilson won 64% of DE voters in 1964.
c) Tony Blair broadened Labour’s support with progressive New Labour by dropping clause 4’s commitment to public ownership of the key industries in 1995.
d) Jeremy Corbyn won many champagne socialist (wealthy urban) voters in the AB category while Theresa May won amongst DE. - Voter turnout
a) Members of the electorate who have more at stake financially (through the ownership of property, savings and investments) are more inclined to vote.
- EXAMPLE. In 2010, 76% of the AB classes voted. 74% of those who owned their own homes voted.
b) Members of the electorate who are poor may believe that the political system has nothing to offer for them.
- EXAMPLE. In 2010, 57% of the DE classes voted. 55% of those who lived in social housing or in the private rented sector voted.
4
Q
What is Class Dealignment?
A
CLASS DEALIGNMENT
- Suggests that voters are much less likely to vote according to their membership of a particular social class.
- It is closely linked to partisan dealignment, whereby voters abandon traditional party loyalties.
5
Q
What is Partisan Dealignment and how does it affect voting behaviour?
A
PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT
- The way in which voters since the 1970s have abandoned traditional party loyalties and have instead made their voting choices based on a range of factors including governing competence, the salience of core issues and economic self-interest.
- Loyalty was normally instilled by family tradition and the influence of the workplace and local community.
a) Bonds were weaker as people were less likely to work in the same industry their whole lives. - Many people have become floating/swing voters.
a) Many have a growing sense of disillusion (disappointment from discovering something is not as one believed it to be) and voter apathy (lack of interest, enthusiasm or concern).
6
Q
How does Region affect voting behaviour?
A
REGION
- England
a) South.
- The most prosperous region with high levels of homeownership and little tradition of heavy industrial trade unionism.
- The ethnically white rural parts are Conservatives heartlands.
b) Urban Areas.
- Ethnically diverse big cities with large working-class population of industrial production is more likely to vote Labour. - Scotland
a) Traditional industrial areas.
- Typically provided Labour with seats.
b) Orkney and Shetland Islands (Rural).
- Typically non-conformist artisans who have always returned a Liberal MP since 1950.
c) Heartland
- SNP won 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in 2015.
- Scottish Conservatives were so unpopular in 1997, that they won no seats there.
- Ruth Davidson has changed the status quo as the ‘pro-union’ candidate and gaining 13 seats in 2017. - London
a) Due to the cost of homeownership and levels of inequality the majority of London is Labour backing
- EXAMPLE. In 2019, Labours only gained seat was Putney.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, 55% voter Labour in London compared to 33% for Conservatives.
7
Q
How does Age affect voting behaviour?
A
AGE
- Young voters
a) More concerned with issues such as social justice and the environment and therefore are more inclined to vote Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
- EXAMPLE. Jeremy Corbyn connected to many young people with his slogan ‘for the many, not the few’ and his pledge to abolish tuition fees.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, 62% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour compared to just 27% that voted Conservative.
b) Younger people are more attracted to radical ideas, yet are less likely to vote.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, 54% of 18-24 years olds voted (the age bracket makes up 5% of the population).
c) EXAMPLE. The Conservatives did achieve a 1% lead over Labour among those 18-24 in 1979, which granted her a landslide. - Older voters
a) The Conservatives have historically benefitted from the support of older people.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, 61% of those 65+ voted Conservative, compared to 25% voting Labour.
b) Older people are more likely to vote.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, 71% of 65+ years olds voted (the age bracket makes up 18% of the population).
c) EXAMPLE. Labour did achieve a 5% lead over the Conservatives among those over 65+ in 1997, which granted him a landslide.
8
Q
How does Ethnicity affect voting behaviour?
A
ETHNICITY
- Ethnic Minorities/BAME
a) Traditionally more inclined to vote Labour due to it promoting a multi-cultural and anti-discrimination agenda.
- EXAMPLE. Labour introduced the Race Relations Acts in 1965, 1968 and 1976 to outlaw discrimination.
- EXAMPLE. Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968 outlawed Commonwealth immigration, making the Conservatives hostile to immigrant communities.
b) Minorities are disproportionately employed in low-wage jobs.
- Importance of Labour’s trade union movement.
- EXAMPLE. Labour introduced the minimum wage in the National Minimum Wage Act 1998.
c) Labour are more committed to higher spending on the Welfare State.
d) EXAMPLE. In 2017, Labour won 49 out of the 73 seats in Greater London (which has only a 55% non-white British population).
- In East Ham (that has a 77% non-white population), Labour gained 83.2% of the votes whilst the Conservatives gained 12.8%.
- The Conservatives held just 5 out of the 75 most ethnically diverse constituencies.
- Labour gained 73% of the minority vote in 2017, whilst the Conservatives gained 19%. - White British
a) Tend to be more inclined to vote Conservatives.
b) Have a higher turnout.
- EXAMPLE. In 2010, 67% of white people voted whereas it was just 51% of ethnic minority groups.
9
Q
How does Education affect voting behaviour?
A
EDUCATION
- Highly Educated
a) Those with higher educational qualification comprise of the top social bracket and have traditionally been more likely to vote Conservative.
- EXAMPLE. In 2017, Labour achieved its highest support form those with a degree or higher at 48%, whereas the Conservatives achieved 33%.
b) EXAMPLE. In the 2016 EU referendum, 75% those with qualifications voted against Brexit. - Lack of Education
a) The Conservatives tend to aligned themselves with stricter controls over immigration (popular policy amongst white-working class voters who feel threatened by globalisation and voted Leave in the 2016 referendum).
b) EXAMPLE. In 2017, the Conservatives increased their support amongst those in the lowest social bands with the fewest educational qualification at 52% (no qualifications) compared to Labour achieving 35%.
c) EXAMPLE. In the 2016 EU referendum, 75% those without qualifications voted for Brexit.
10
Q
How does Gender affect voting behaviour?
A
GENDER
- Male
a) Labour traditionally won from 1945 to the 1980s amongst male-dominated trade unionism.
b) Conservatives have since performed greater with men due to its commitment on property rights and business.
- EXAMPLE. 44% of men voted Conservatives in the 2017 election, compared to 40% voting Labour. - Female
a) From 1945 to the 1980s, housewives voted Conservatives due to inflation caused by Labour which hit family finances.
- EXAMPLE. In 1979, the Conservatives gained 47% of the female vote compared to 35% by Labour.
b) Labour has faired well with the Female vote due to Labours focus on education, social care, NHS and commitment to gender equality.
- EXAMPLE. 73% of Women aged 18-24 voted Labour in the 2017 election, compared to 18% voting Conservative. This is compared to 52% of men aged 18-24 voted Labour in the 2017 election, compared to 36% voting Conservative.
11
Q
What are Valence Factors?
A
VALENCE FACTORS
- Refers to the relative success or failure of a government’s policies. Voters who vote according to valence factors are making their decisions based on whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the government’s performance.
12
Q
How does Governing Competence affect voting behaviour?
A
GOVERNING COMPETENCE
- This is the extent to which the government is regarded as having been capable and competent,
a) If it is viewed as having failed in government this will encourage the public to vote for change.
b) Swing voters are less likely to vote for the opposition if they are reassured that the government is competent. - Successful Governments
a) 1959
- Economic prosperity and a wider availability of consumer good contributed to Harold Macmillan increasing the Conservative majority to over 100 against Labour’s Hugh Gaitskell.
- Macmillan’s calm sense of authority and the way in which he took political advantage of rising living standards, claiming “Most people have never had it so good”, have voters little reason to change government.
b) 1966
- After 2 years in power, Harold Wilson’s Labour government still looked energetic and focused and industrial unrest was limited.
- Facing a new and untried leader of the opposition, Edward Heath, Wilson called a snap election and dramatically increased his Parliamentary majority to over 100.
c) 1983
- Although unemployment levels remained stubbornly high, Thatcher had successfully brought inflation down, fulfilling her manifesto pledge.
- Her leadership during the Falklands War (1982) and the unity of her cabinet further reinforced the government;s reputation for strength of purpose. - Unsuccessful Governments
a) 1964
- The short-lived Conservative government of Alec Douglas-Home had not been able to disassociate itself from the failures and scandals of the last years of the Macmillan government. These include:
- Charles de Gaulle vetoing Macmillan’s attempt to join the EEC.
- Macmillan’s desperate decision to sack a third of his cabinet in the ‘Night of the Long Knives’.
- The John Profumo affair with Christine Keeler.
- Harold Wilson’s Labour party were thus well placed to end what they called ‘thirteen wasted years of Conservative government’.
b) February 1974
- When Edward Heath called a snap election he did so in response to another miners’ strike, which threatened more severe industrial disruption.
- His decision to use a general election to assert the government’s authority led to being referred to as the ‘Who governs Britain’ general election.
- Many voters saw this as evidence that an incompetent government had lost control of the nation.
c) 1979
- The inability of the Labour PM, James Callaghan, to stop the dramatic escalation of strikes during the Winter of Discontent undermined public faith in his government.
- This was made worse by the way in which his attempts to reassure the country were misquoted in the press as “Crisis? What crisis?”.
- Swing voters consequently voted Conservative because they thought Thatcher was more likely to confront the growing power of trade unionism.
13
Q
How does Leadership affect voting behaviour?
A
LEADERSHIP
- Presidentialisation of British Politics
a) UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters’ perception of the leading figures.
b) Thatcher’s strong leadership qualities against one-nation conservative rebels: “You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning”, and her response to the Falkland War.
- Whereas Labour leader, Michael Foot was perhaps divided between infighting of the Labour Party.
c) Tony Blair dominated the political landscape by the charismatic force of his personality and lack of opposition from the weak William Hague. - Strong opposition Leaders
a) Winston Churchill, 1951 general election
- He successfully campaigned on a manifesto pledge to ‘set the people free’, promising to end rationing and reduce the middle classes’ tax burden.
- He also won support by contrasting one-nation conservative values with the class-based socialism of the Attlee government.
b) Margaret Thatcher, 1979 general election
- Although personally less popular than James Callaghan, Thatcher successfully focused the election on the government’s failure to confront the growing power of trade unions.
c) David Cameron, 2010 general election
- He successes in focusing the election on this huge increase in the national debt under Gordon Brown.
- This was presented as Labour’s weakest point and contributed to Brown’s defeat. - Weak opposition Leaders
a) Neil Kinnock, 1992 general election
- Having lost to Thatcher in 1987, Kinnock was confident in defeating John Major in 1992.
- Yet he failed to convince enough swing voters that he had the gravitas to be PM.
b) Michael Howard, 2005 general election
- He successes in reducing Tony Blair’s majority.
- Yet lingering memories of Anne Widdecombe’s jibe that ‘there was something of the night’ about him meant that he could not inspire widespread popular support.
- His support for the Iraq War (2003) also ensured that the anti-war vote went to the Liberal Democrats under Charles Kennedy.
c) Ed Milliband, 2015 general election
- Ed failed to convince enough people that he had the strength of character to be PM.
- An attempt to provide him with greater stature by having him publicly unveil a 9-foot stone tablet with his campaign promises carved into it backfired when it was ridiculed as the ‘Edstone’ and the ‘heaviest suicide note in history’.
- There was a character assassination of Ed by the media after he ate a bacon sandwich in 2014. - Minority Party Leadership
a) Jo Grimond, Liberals 1964 general election
- Although Harold Wilson had expected to win a decisive victory over Conservative PM Alec Douglas-Home, in reality, it was just a 4 seat majority.
- Jo Grimond’s energetic campaign appealed to young people, with a 5.3% increase in the vote to the Liberals.
b) Jeremy Thorpe, Liberals February 1974 general election
- In the ‘Who governs Britain?’ election, voters were tired of the two main parties.
- As a result, the Liberals increased their vote by 11.8%.
- By holding the balance of power, Thorpe was able to force the resignation of Edward Heath as PM.
c) Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrats 2010 general election
- During the first televised debate, Clegg’s engaging personality made him the clear winner = Cleggmania.
- Cleggamania saw his poll in a YouGov poll at 34% (one point above the Conservatives, with Labour in third place on 28%).
d) Nicola Sturgeon, SNP 2015 general election
- Her leadership led to Labour losing 40 seats in Scotland. - The popularity of the Party Leader
a) Nigel Farage, UKIP 2015 general election
- Although he had the worst approval rating of any party leadership, he successes in making immigration a key issue in the election, dramatically increasing UKIP’s vote among the voting class.
b) Theresa May was found in a YouGov poll that 50% of voters through that May would make the best PM, compared to just 14% for Jeremy Corbyn.
- 71% of voters disapproved of Corbyn in 2019.
14
Q
How does the Campaign affect voting behaviour?
A
THE CAMPAIGN
- Does affect voting behaviour
a) Although some campaigns may simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them, especially if it is a tight race.
- The growth of partisan dealignment suggests that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters have become much more flexible in their voting intentions.
b) EXAMPLE. In the February 1974 general election, the Liberal Party under Jeremy Thorpe cleverly explored the widespread discontent with both Edward Heath and Harold Wilson, especially among first-time voters.
- This led to the Liberal’s share of the vote increasing by 11.8%.
c) EXAMPLE. In 1992, John Major’s decision to abandon stage-managed events and take his soapbox to town centres was in mark contrasted to Neil Kinnock’s hubris at the Sheffield rally.
- This changed the dynamic of the general election, providing the Conservatives with an unexpected victory.
d) EXAMPLE. In 2010, a strong Liberal Democrat campaign, including Nick Clegg’s impressive performance at the televised debates, significantly increased Lib Dem support, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives, leading to a hung parliament and coalition.
e) EXAMPLE. In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn’s optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees contrasted sharply with Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign appearances and the unpopularity of the ‘dementia tax’.
- As a result, Labour dramatically increased its support as the campaign progressed, from less than 30% of the vote at the beginning to achieving 40% in the general elections. - Does not affect voting behaviour
a) According to some political commentators, the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since voters will generally have already made up their mind.
b) In the 1950s and 1960s, the class allegiance that political parties could depend on meant that campaigns made little difference in swaying the majority of voters.
- EXAMPLE. In the 1955 and 1959 general election, campaigns simply confirmed expected Conservative victories under Anthony Eden and Harold Macmillan.
c) EXAMPLE. Although Harold Wilson’s dynamic and presidential campaign in 1964 was supposed to make him appeal to the voters, Alec Douglas-Home’s earnestness proved more appealing.
- The reality is that Wilson only increased Labour’s vote share by 0.2% from 1959.
d) EXAMPLE. In 1970, Edward Heath’s campaign was dismissed as bland and uninspiring and plans had been drawn up by Conservative grandees to force his resignation when he lost. His surprise victory over Harold Wilson was unexpected.
e) EXAMPLE. In 1987, although Labour ran a dynamic and much-praised modern campaign showcasing Neil Kinnock as a strong potential PM, the Conservatives won with a 102 seat majority.
f) EXAMPLE. In 1997, John Major decided on a long campaign in the hope that he would be able to reduce Tony Blair’s huge lead in the polls.
g) EXAMPLE. In spite of a poor Conservative campaign in 2017, they increased their vote share from 36.9% in 2015 to 42.4% in 2017.
- This equalled the share of the vote that Thatcher received in 1983 with a much stronger campaign.
15
Q
How does the Manifesto affect voting behaviour?
A
MANIFESTO
- Labour
a) EXAMPLE. In 1987, the Labour party manifesto did not commit to the UK’s nuclear deterrent.
- This enabled the Conservatives to claim that Labour could not be trusted on defence, their campaign poster boldly stating ‘LABOUR’S POLICY ON ARMS’ next to an image of a surrendering soldier.
b) EXAMPLE. In 1992, the Labour manifesto commitment to increase public spending allowed the Conservatives to claim successfully that a Labour government would mean a ‘tax bombshell’ for every family.
c) EXAMPLE. Labour’s manifesto pledge to abolish tuition fees provided a boost from young and first-time voters, while its promise of an end to austerity and the introduction of higher taxes for the top 5% of the population had broad appeal. - Conservatives
a) EXAMPLE. In 2017, the Conservative Party’s manifesto pledges that if elderly people receiving NHS care at home had assets of more than £100,000, then the excess would contribute to the cost of their care after their deaths.
- Although the plan was supposed to provide a fairer system of care, it was quickly labelled as the ‘dementia tax’ by the press.
