13 - judgements, decisions and reasoning Flashcards

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1
Q

what are heuristics

A

inductive rules of thumb generated from past experiences that are likely to provide good solutions but are not infallible

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2
Q

what is the availability heuristic

A

events that are more easily accessible in memory are judged as being more probable than those which are difficult to access
- doesn’t always lead to errors; lots of cases where this is entirely useful

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3
Q

what are illusory correlations

A

occur wen the relationship between 2 events seems to exist but is either non existent or far less likely than you think

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4
Q

what can illusory correlations lead to

A

stereotypes - over simplistic generalizations about a group or class of ppl that tend to focus on the negative

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5
Q

how are stereotypes related to the availability heuristic

A

selectie attention to stereotypical behaviours makes them more available in memory

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6
Q

what is the representativeness heuristic

A

the liklihood that an instance is a member of a larger category is determined by how well the instance resembles properties of the category
- example; librarian task, conjunction task (librarian and a social justice fighter, ppl can pick 2 even tho its less fucking likely)

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7
Q

what is the law of large numbers

A

the larger the sample drawn from a population, the more representative
- be skeptical of small samples

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8
Q

what is the myside bias

A

people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased towards their own attitudes
- research pro or against capital punishment is rated as convincing if consistent with beliefs, unconvincing if incosnsitsent

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9
Q

what is the mysids bias an example of

A

confirmation bais

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10
Q

what is confirmation bias

A

occurs when people look for information that confirms their hypothesis, ignore info that refutes it

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11
Q

explain Wason’s study on confirmation bias

A

veritasium problem

  • ppl look for confirming information tend to not solve the algorithm when asked to state it
  • when ppl look for disconfirming evidence they figure out its just three ascending numbers
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12
Q

do we always assess the verisimilitude of evidence when presented with the opportunity to actually do so?

A

no, sometimes we just take shit at face value dependent on our world view - Bush and Iraq example

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13
Q

what is the backfire effect

A
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14
Q

what are the 9 potential sources of error in inductive reasoning

A
  1. avail. heuristic
  2. illusory correlation
  3. representativeness heuristic
  4. base rate (relative proportions of different classes in the population not taken into acct. - librarian vs philosophy prof for example)
  5. conjunction rule
  6. law of large numbers
  7. myside bais
  8. confirmation bias
  9. backfire effect
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15
Q

what is the belief bias

A

tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it conforms to previously held beliefs

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16
Q

what is the mental model approach to deductive reasoning

A

we form mental models of syllogisms and then manipulate them to look for counter examples - internalizing invalidity model proofs

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17
Q

why is the mental model theory of deductive reasoning attractive

A

can be used to asses a syllogisms validity without training and logic and makes testable predictions (more complex syllogisms require Moore complex models and tf are harder to solve)

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18
Q

is the mental model approach certain?

A

no, lots of disagreement rn

  • people seem to use different strategies
  • people seem to be differently abled this way
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19
Q

is conditional reasoning better in formal terms or using examples (for laymen)

A

examples - people tend to be better at assessing the validity of conditional syllogisms when we apply real-world examples

20
Q

what is the falsification principle

A

to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify it

21
Q

explain the Wason four card problem

A

provides 4 cards w letters / numbers on them

  • which cards do you need to flip to know if (vowels flip to even numbers) is true?
  • E card, K card, 4 card, 7 card
  • need to flip E
  • but also need to flip the 7 - if there’s a vowel on the other side its wrong
  • ppl tend to want to flip 4, looking for confirming evidence
22
Q

how does the Wason four card problem show that conditional reasoning is easier in the concrete than the abstract

A
  • when using concrete terms, people solved it well )70%) but failed completely in abstract terms
  • Griggs and Cox; easier in concrete bc it involves regulations ppl are familiar with
23
Q

explain the differences in reasoning ability in concrete vs abstract situations through Cheng and Holyoak’s schema perspective

A

people think in terms of schemas, knowledge about rules that governs thought and actions

  • permission schema; there are things that ppl can only do if they meet a criteria
  • this is what happens in the beer (concrete) version of the task above
24
Q

explain the differences in reasoning ability in concrete vs abstract situations through the evolutionary preparedness to uncover cheaters

A

ppl are on the lookout for cheaters from an evolutionary point of view
- so finding ppl cheating is more salience than just random formal shit

25
Q

what is the expected utility theory

A

the idea that people are rational - if given all relevant information they will make decisions that result in maximum utility, that iso outcomes that achieve goals

26
Q

what is a benefit of expected utility theory

A

becomes possible to determine procedures that determine which course of action results in the highest utility

27
Q

do people actually follow expected utility theory ?

A

no, people will make irrational decisions for strange reasons
- considered in probability stuff too - we make probabilistic decisions without explicit consideration of probability

28
Q

explain how deal or no deal provides evidence that people dont consider probability 100% of the time when working with probabilistic problems

A

participants who are doing well and who’s deal is going up play more cautiously

  • those who are doing shit tend to play more recklessly
  • one possible reason is that those doing poorly dont want to feel like a loser
  • decisions are affected by our EMOTIONS
29
Q

what is risk avoidance

A

the tendency to avoid making decisions that could lead to large negative consequences, often in the anxious

30
Q

how are optimists sometimes poor decision makers

A

they tend to ignore negative information and focus on positive stuff, which results n making decisions on incomplete info

31
Q

what are expected emotions

A

emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outocome

32
Q

what is something that increases the likelihood of risk aversion
- explain Kermer’s study on this

A

the tendency to predict that a loss will have a greater impact than a gain of the same size

  • gave two groups 5 bucks, then a coin flip - either win 5 more or lose 3
  • asked to rate expected emotions for two outcomes; losing 3 deemed very aversive
  • asked to rate after coin flip - losing three was not aversive, gaining 5 was more positive
33
Q

why do ppl expect negative outcomes to be so emotionally intense

A

possibly bc they dont consider the coping mechanisms they might use after the loss

34
Q

what are incidental emotions

- explain the two findings of Simonsohn and clouds

A

emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision

  • academic scores are weighted more heavily by admissions if observed on a cloudy daysd
  • ppl enroll in universities more readily if they visit on a cloudy day
35
Q

explain the 2 studies on physician decisions influenced by context

A
  1. offering 2 possible drugs for prescription rather than 1 decreases overall prescription - harder decisions result in more apathy
  2. doctors will become ‘jaded’ by previous cases (presenting severe cases prior to C section case reduces C sections, but easy cases increases)
36
Q

what is the status quo bias

A

the tendency to do nothing when faced with a decision

37
Q

explain Slovic et al’s study on choice presentation and forensic psychology

A

gave forensic psychs a case study w 2 conditions

  1. 20/100 ppl like this commit murder
  2. 20% of cases like jones
    - lower discharge rates for condition 1 - creates a mental image of the 20 people doing harm rather than the abstract 20%
38
Q

what is the framing effect?

- how might it come about?

A

the fact that decisions are easily influenced by how the choices are presented
- manipulating salience of components of the event

39
Q

relate framing effects to risk taking and risk avoidance

A

framing choices in terms of net gain results in risk taking behaviours, vice versa

40
Q

what is neuroeconomics

A

the combined field lf research intersecting psych neural and Econ, studies how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential losses or gains

41
Q

explain Saffey et al’s study on the ultimatum game

A

ppl are unlikely to accept 1 or 2 dollars out of the 10 even though it is the rational choice (1/2 is greater than 0)

  • found more when playing with a person, bc they deem the bad deals as unfair
  • but dont get upset when playing w computers, so more likely to accept the deal
42
Q

what area of the brain was associated with rejecting offers in Saffey’s study

A

the right anterior insula - 3x more active during rejection

  • increased activity associated with more rejection
  • consistent with the idea that the brain region is connected w a lot of negative emotional states
43
Q

what did saffey argue about the PFC’s role in decision making

A

active in both rejection and acceptance conditions

-= probably just deals with the general cognitive demands of the task, weighing choices etc

44
Q

Explain Knoch’s findings on the PFC and decision making

A

two groups, one had TMS on their PFC one had a sham condition

  • those with PFC deactivated were more likely to accept poor trade offers
  • PFC contributes to the cognitively demanding process of rejection
45
Q

how are the PFC and right anterior insula related to purchasing decisions

A

PFC activity associated with purchasing decisions

RAI opposite - negative emotions assoc. w overpriced items

46
Q

what is the dual systems approach

- why should we in type (x) processing over system (x)?

A

thinking fast and slow

  • type 1/ system 1 = FAST heuristics
  • type 2/ system 2 = slow deliberate
  • processing type bc they are different forms of processing, not different entities/structures