13 - judgements, decisions and reasoning Flashcards
what are heuristics
inductive rules of thumb generated from past experiences that are likely to provide good solutions but are not infallible
what is the availability heuristic
events that are more easily accessible in memory are judged as being more probable than those which are difficult to access
- doesn’t always lead to errors; lots of cases where this is entirely useful
what are illusory correlations
occur wen the relationship between 2 events seems to exist but is either non existent or far less likely than you think
what can illusory correlations lead to
stereotypes - over simplistic generalizations about a group or class of ppl that tend to focus on the negative
how are stereotypes related to the availability heuristic
selectie attention to stereotypical behaviours makes them more available in memory
what is the representativeness heuristic
the liklihood that an instance is a member of a larger category is determined by how well the instance resembles properties of the category
- example; librarian task, conjunction task (librarian and a social justice fighter, ppl can pick 2 even tho its less fucking likely)
what is the law of large numbers
the larger the sample drawn from a population, the more representative
- be skeptical of small samples
what is the myside bias
people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased towards their own attitudes
- research pro or against capital punishment is rated as convincing if consistent with beliefs, unconvincing if incosnsitsent
what is the mysids bias an example of
confirmation bais
what is confirmation bias
occurs when people look for information that confirms their hypothesis, ignore info that refutes it
explain Wason’s study on confirmation bias
veritasium problem
- ppl look for confirming information tend to not solve the algorithm when asked to state it
- when ppl look for disconfirming evidence they figure out its just three ascending numbers
do we always assess the verisimilitude of evidence when presented with the opportunity to actually do so?
no, sometimes we just take shit at face value dependent on our world view - Bush and Iraq example
what is the backfire effect
what are the 9 potential sources of error in inductive reasoning
- avail. heuristic
- illusory correlation
- representativeness heuristic
- base rate (relative proportions of different classes in the population not taken into acct. - librarian vs philosophy prof for example)
- conjunction rule
- law of large numbers
- myside bais
- confirmation bias
- backfire effect
what is the belief bias
tendency to think a syllogism is valid if it conforms to previously held beliefs
what is the mental model approach to deductive reasoning
we form mental models of syllogisms and then manipulate them to look for counter examples - internalizing invalidity model proofs
why is the mental model theory of deductive reasoning attractive
can be used to asses a syllogisms validity without training and logic and makes testable predictions (more complex syllogisms require Moore complex models and tf are harder to solve)
is the mental model approach certain?
no, lots of disagreement rn
- people seem to use different strategies
- people seem to be differently abled this way
is conditional reasoning better in formal terms or using examples (for laymen)
examples - people tend to be better at assessing the validity of conditional syllogisms when we apply real-world examples
what is the falsification principle
to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify it
explain the Wason four card problem
provides 4 cards w letters / numbers on them
- which cards do you need to flip to know if (vowels flip to even numbers) is true?
- E card, K card, 4 card, 7 card
- need to flip E
- but also need to flip the 7 - if there’s a vowel on the other side its wrong
- ppl tend to want to flip 4, looking for confirming evidence
how does the Wason four card problem show that conditional reasoning is easier in the concrete than the abstract
- when using concrete terms, people solved it well )70%) but failed completely in abstract terms
- Griggs and Cox; easier in concrete bc it involves regulations ppl are familiar with
explain the differences in reasoning ability in concrete vs abstract situations through Cheng and Holyoak’s schema perspective
people think in terms of schemas, knowledge about rules that governs thought and actions
- permission schema; there are things that ppl can only do if they meet a criteria
- this is what happens in the beer (concrete) version of the task above
explain the differences in reasoning ability in concrete vs abstract situations through the evolutionary preparedness to uncover cheaters
ppl are on the lookout for cheaters from an evolutionary point of view
- so finding ppl cheating is more salience than just random formal shit
what is the expected utility theory
the idea that people are rational - if given all relevant information they will make decisions that result in maximum utility, that iso outcomes that achieve goals
what is a benefit of expected utility theory
becomes possible to determine procedures that determine which course of action results in the highest utility
do people actually follow expected utility theory ?
no, people will make irrational decisions for strange reasons
- considered in probability stuff too - we make probabilistic decisions without explicit consideration of probability
explain how deal or no deal provides evidence that people dont consider probability 100% of the time when working with probabilistic problems
participants who are doing well and who’s deal is going up play more cautiously
- those who are doing shit tend to play more recklessly
- one possible reason is that those doing poorly dont want to feel like a loser
- decisions are affected by our EMOTIONS
what is risk avoidance
the tendency to avoid making decisions that could lead to large negative consequences, often in the anxious
how are optimists sometimes poor decision makers
they tend to ignore negative information and focus on positive stuff, which results n making decisions on incomplete info
what are expected emotions
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outocome
what is something that increases the likelihood of risk aversion
- explain Kermer’s study on this
the tendency to predict that a loss will have a greater impact than a gain of the same size
- gave two groups 5 bucks, then a coin flip - either win 5 more or lose 3
- asked to rate expected emotions for two outcomes; losing 3 deemed very aversive
- asked to rate after coin flip - losing three was not aversive, gaining 5 was more positive
why do ppl expect negative outcomes to be so emotionally intense
possibly bc they dont consider the coping mechanisms they might use after the loss
what are incidental emotions
- explain the two findings of Simonsohn and clouds
emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision
- academic scores are weighted more heavily by admissions if observed on a cloudy daysd
- ppl enroll in universities more readily if they visit on a cloudy day
explain the 2 studies on physician decisions influenced by context
- offering 2 possible drugs for prescription rather than 1 decreases overall prescription - harder decisions result in more apathy
- doctors will become ‘jaded’ by previous cases (presenting severe cases prior to C section case reduces C sections, but easy cases increases)
what is the status quo bias
the tendency to do nothing when faced with a decision
explain Slovic et al’s study on choice presentation and forensic psychology
gave forensic psychs a case study w 2 conditions
- 20/100 ppl like this commit murder
- 20% of cases like jones
- lower discharge rates for condition 1 - creates a mental image of the 20 people doing harm rather than the abstract 20%
what is the framing effect?
- how might it come about?
the fact that decisions are easily influenced by how the choices are presented
- manipulating salience of components of the event
relate framing effects to risk taking and risk avoidance
framing choices in terms of net gain results in risk taking behaviours, vice versa
what is neuroeconomics
the combined field lf research intersecting psych neural and Econ, studies how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential losses or gains
explain Saffey et al’s study on the ultimatum game
ppl are unlikely to accept 1 or 2 dollars out of the 10 even though it is the rational choice (1/2 is greater than 0)
- found more when playing with a person, bc they deem the bad deals as unfair
- but dont get upset when playing w computers, so more likely to accept the deal
what area of the brain was associated with rejecting offers in Saffey’s study
the right anterior insula - 3x more active during rejection
- increased activity associated with more rejection
- consistent with the idea that the brain region is connected w a lot of negative emotional states
what did saffey argue about the PFC’s role in decision making
active in both rejection and acceptance conditions
-= probably just deals with the general cognitive demands of the task, weighing choices etc
Explain Knoch’s findings on the PFC and decision making
two groups, one had TMS on their PFC one had a sham condition
- those with PFC deactivated were more likely to accept poor trade offers
- PFC contributes to the cognitively demanding process of rejection
how are the PFC and right anterior insula related to purchasing decisions
PFC activity associated with purchasing decisions
RAI opposite - negative emotions assoc. w overpriced items
what is the dual systems approach
- why should we in type (x) processing over system (x)?
thinking fast and slow
- type 1/ system 1 = FAST heuristics
- type 2/ system 2 = slow deliberate
- processing type bc they are different forms of processing, not different entities/structures
