13. Democratic erosion/backsliding (guestlecture van joepie)

Question 1

democratic recession

Answer 1

1. a substantial de facto decline of core institutional requirements for electoral democracy, taking place within democracies.
2. with recession the democracy will still be a democracy
3. can be from liberal to electoral democracy, but also from very liberal democracy to slightly less liberal democracy

Question 2

who threatens democracy?

Answer 2

1. state-led: this is democratic backsliding (erdogan)
2. outside forces: this is democratic erosion (russia invading ukraine)
3. inside forces: this is democratic decay (certain political parties, elites, or organisations)

Question 3

what are the targets of democratic recession?

Answer 3

1. for backsliding it is the existing democracy
2. for regression it is norms sustaining liberal democracy
3. for recession it is the electoral democracy

Question 4

first wave of autocratisation

Answer 4

1. interwar period
2. affecting both democracies and autocracies
3. democratic recession mostly due to (military) coups.
4. mostly targeted electoral aspects of democracy
5. democratic recession often very direct and clear ruptures, large-scale. Clear cut transformation from being democracy to less of a democracy.

4: corruption, propaganda, vote rigging etc.

Question 5

second wave of autocratisation

Answer 5

1. 1961-1977
2. mostly affecting autocracies
3. democratic recession mostly due to (military) coups
4. mostly targeted electoral aspects of democracy
5. democratic recession often very direct and clear ruptures, large-scale. Clear cut transformation from being democracy to less of a democracy.

4: corruption, propaganda, vote rigging etc.

Question 6

third wave of autocratisation

Answer 6

1. since 1990
2. mostly affecting democracies
3. democratic recession mostly by incumbents who gradually undermine democracy, without necessarily abolishing democratic institutions
4. this increase of power for the executive is called executive aggrandisement
5. mostly targeting liberal aspects of democracy alongside electoral aspects still.
6. democratic recession more graduate and less clear-cut
7. incumbents who are often initially free and fairly elected who gradually challenge democracy while still claiming they’re democratic.

5: like civil liberties, checks and balances, delegitimise opponents, discount democratic norms

Question 7

institutional circumstances that facilitate democratic recession

Answer 7

1. presidentialism: when a single person has a popular mandate, they can more easily increase their power
2. absent accountability measures: when (for example) parliaments can choose to ignore court rulings, weak checks and balances

1: this is because the system is used to having only one person in power

Question 8

societal factors that facilitate democratic recession

Answer 8

1. low support for democracy: when citizens do not support democracy, why should elites? Elites can also make support for democracy lower and use this.
2. Effective polarisation: when people do not trust others to adhere to democratic rules, why should they?

Question 9

international factors that facilitate democratic recession

Answer 9

1. international linkages: when international trade partners become autocratic, it is less costly to turn autocratic yourself.
2. Weak international communities: when IOs fail to stand up against autocratisers, they can turn to legitimisers.

Question 10

economic factor facilitating democracy recession

Answer 10

1. inequality: when there is high inequality, this can pave the way for incumbents promising radical reform

Question 11

how crises facilitate democratic recession

Answer 11

1. when there is a crisis, strong and resolute actions need to be taken
2. crisis can be prolonged or imagined to keep power
3. state of emergency

Question 12

what do would-be autocrats do

Answer 12

1. duplication: copy-paste an institution that already exists, but now you control it completely
2. colonisation: control the appointment procedures for an organisation, and pack it with loyalists
3. manipulation: tweak the rules so that everything benefits you
4. evasion: ignore rules and procedures so that the opposition can no longer control you
5. prohibition: forbid any opposition against you
6. restriction: make opposition very costly
7. delegitimation: make sure no one believes the opposition anymore

1: courts, parliaments, media watch bodies
2: electoral management body, national research council, university boards, media outlets
3: electoral districts (gerrymandering), appointment rules, rules for financing of NGOs, media licensing
4: parliamentary debates, court rulings, presidential term limits
5: bans on political ads, ban academics from criticizing government policy
6: relax termination policies for state employees, prosecute opposition leaders for shooting reindeer
7: call media fake, call judiciary corrupt or communis

Question 13

what are resilient democracies

Answer 13

1. they have the ability to prevent or react to challenges without losing its democratic character
2. they continue democracy without substantial or sustained decline in its quality, that is, the avoidance of autocratisation

Question 14

when are resilient democracies more likely

Answer 14

1. when there are good facilitating circumstances (opposite as those for autocratisation)
2. when there are opposition actors who stand up to defend democracy

Question 15

with what do opposition actors defend democracy

Answer 15

1. all activities that are explicitly and directly undertaken to protect the democratic system from the threat of its internal opponents
2. any activity by a changing set of actors who attempt at slowing down, stopping or reverting the actions of the autocratising actor

Question 16

who are the democratic defenders

Answer 16

1. in the 1st and 2nd wave autocratisation was often initiated by outside forcers, so incumbents were the defenders.
2. when the incumbent is an autocratiser:
   - institutional resisters: within government institutions
   - political resisters: opposition
   - social resisters: protesters, civil society

Question 17

what can democratic defenders do

Answer 17

when the incumbent is the defender they can do formal provisions or political strategies:
- banning extremist parties
- legislation to protect institutions
- legislation against false news
when the incumbent is the autocratiser, the formal provisions are harder to reach for democratic defenders, so they need to use political strategies

Question 18

how can institutional resisters defend democracy

Answer 18

1. enforcing norms and raising awareness in accordance with their role, competencies, and functions
2. example is trump calling georgia official to find votes, and him refusing and publishing the call. but is this because he wants to defend democracy, or save his own reputation?

Question 19

what can political resisters do to defend democracy

Answer 19

find a common platform between opposition cleavages and animosity to cut short the incumbent advantage of the autocratiser –> form a block against autocratiser

Question 20

what can social resisters do to defend democracy

Answer 20

1. take to the street to voice discontent
2. not always effective, governments can sit it out and protests can evaporate

Question 21

arenas and goals of democratic defence

Answer 21

democratic defence occurs:
- within institutions (institutional and political)
- outside institutions (social)
democratic defence is aimed at:
- stop the autocratic action (moderate goal)
- removing the autocrat from office (radical goal)

radical goal high incentive for incumbent to repress

Question 22

effectiveness of combination arenas and goals

Answer 22

1. moderate institutional: slow, but likely successful
2. radical institutional: unclear outcome, risky if incumbent has popular support
3. moderate outside institutional: unclear outcome, requires strict coordination by resisters
4. radical outside institutional: elecits harsh crack-down by incumbent

Question 23

which challenges do democratic defenders face

Answer 23

1. institutional resister: their roles, competences, and functions are being targeted by the autocratiser. lose job, family targeted. how credible is your democratic defence if you’re also defending your own job/security?
2. institutional resister: incumbent will attack and conquer (delegitimation tactics)
3. social resister: what happens if the protest turns violent? (also think of delegitimisation)

1: autocratiser can delegitimise and say they themselves are democratic and institutional resister just wants to save their job