11. International actors (guest lecture)

Question 1

how do international actors promote autocratisation?

Answer 1

1. individual states giving out information and strategies to other countries
2. organisations allowing authoritarian members by not being strict or allowing unfair elections (African Union, Commonwealth of Independent States)
3. international influence can backfire: USA in afghanistan and iraq, NATO in bosnia
4. democracy aid after cold war, a lot of countries wanted to hold elections which can cause legitimisation of unfair elections

Question 2

how ethical is international actor influence on democratisation?

Answer 2

1. if democracy is about autonomy, it is anti-democratic to impose elections
2. we think we know better
3. democracy aid is only effective if people themselves want to democratise but need support

Question 3

ways to promote democracy

Answer 3

1. colonial occupation
2. military inteventions
3. linkage and leverage
4. geostrategic importance
5. democracy aid

Question 4

colonial occupation as a way to promote democracy

Answer 4

1. evidence is mixed and rather negative (lecture colonialism)
2. in some cases, pre-independence elections, parliaments, and settler institutions supported starting democracy after independence
3. institutional choices like parliamentary systems and power-sharing electoral systems could have helped as well
4. however, colonisers ruled in very dividing ways and this also remained. Ethnic divide, biased rule of law application, underdevelopment of certain areas

2: could be seen as something positive to help

Question 5

military interventions as a way of promoting democracy

Answer 5

1. advantages of military interventions is that it could intervene and defeat in a civil war/insurgence/rebel group situation
2. they can get rid of the dictator
3. you can set up institutions, but the question is if they will stick if they don’t match the population
4. they have to be supported by the locals
5. if you get rid of the elite/bureaucrats (president), you have to find new ones
6. can lead to more conflict
7. investment because it’s expensive and you have to stick around for years
8. delegitimisation chance due to destruction and civilian casualties
9. all in all they’re helpful for kickstarting transition, but not with consolidation

Question 6

sticks and carrots in promoting democratisation

Answer 6

1. in the form of political conditionality
2. usually loans, investment, international recognition, membership of organisation
3. effectivity depends on linkage and leverage

Question 7

linkage

Answer 7

1. the ties the country in question has with democratic countries
2. different types of linkage
3. linkage affects the opinions of people within the country about democratisation, so linkage has a stronger effect than leverage because it comes from within

Question 8

types of linkages

Answer 8

1. economic: trade, investment, assistance
2. social linkage: migration, diaspora communities, tourism
3. transnational civil society linkage: ties to international NGOs
4. geopolitical linkage: alliances, in the same organisations, geographical closeness, former colony
5. communication linkage: internet connections, similar language, western media present

economic can work both ways! so possible autocratisation if trading with autocratic country or ignoring autocratisation due to financial interests

Question 9

what defines the strength of leverage

Answer 9

about vulnerability to external pressure
1. depends on a country’s size, economic strength and military: weak states with small and underdeveloped economies are way more vulnerable to external pressure than those that do.
2. existence of competing issues on western foreign policy agenda: leverage is limited, and regimes are less vulnerable, in countries where Western governments have important economic or security interests at stake.
3. counter pressure from other regional powers: Leverage is reduced in cases where governments have access to political, economic, or military support from an alternative regional power.

2: Examples are China and Russia, we rely on them.
3: In the Americas and Central Europe there is no other regional power, so they have more influence here.

Question 10

how does leverage promote democratisation

Answer 10

it raises the cost of:
1. repression
2. electoral fraud
3. government abuses
If you have leverage over a country it’s harder for an authoritarian leader to get away with oppression or abuse.

Question 11

how does linkage promote democratisation

Answer 11

1. heightening the salience of government abuse: media shows abuse and makes dictators more visible
2. increasing the probability of an international response: stronger connection = quicker intervention
3. creating domestic stakeholders in democracy: diffusion of ideas and skills when students study outside of country and bring the norms of that country back home
4. reshaping the domestic balance of power: pro-democracy actors feel supported by NGOs

most successful example of linkage and leverage is EU enlargement

Question 12

what undermines the strength of leverage

Answer 12

1. geostrategic importance
2. if a country has nothing you want leverage is easy, but if the country has something you need leverage is more difficult

For example Egypt authoritarian regime being supported as long as it was pro-West because they had access to the Suez canal.
Us being Dependent on Russia for oil and gas.

Question 13

democracy aid forms

Answer 13

1. supporting and helping with starting elections
2. judiciary aid
3. improving legislatice advice
4. civil society and parties: supporting new political parties, giving civil society means incentives to find their own local sources of support

1: by for example making a registry, organising elections.
2: training judges, educating them, making sure the apparatus is capable to implement rule of law etc.
4: disadvantage here is about choosing which parties to support. media organisations, training journalists

Question 14

use of democracy aid

Answer 14

1. since 90s increasing part of the budget for development aid gets redirected to democracy aid
2. varies ranging from judiciary aid to election support to developing civil society
3. democracy aid often politically motivated: do we pick the easy countries? authoritarian regimes can pick the support they want, which could legitimise authoritarian regimes
4. Development aid groups saw competition with democracy aid which is partly where the sequencing debate came from.

4: development-first/strong-state first

Question 15

trends in democracy aid

Answer 15

1. civil society aid is the most invested in because authoritarian incumbent has to accept the aid, and civil society is the least threatening to their power
2. judiciary aid tends to be quite high because it includes police and military support

Question 16

effectiveness of democracy aid

Answer 16

1. positive effect is quite weak
2. democracy aid works better if the investments are stable (don’t just support one election and then leave)
3. also more effective if you invest in one or two areas
4. initial spending is really important, otherwise you get diminishing returns (after a few years effect lessens)
5. it depends on the context if democracy aid has an impact:
6. strong effect in hybrid regimes because they’re already making a transition and domestic support is higher.
7. doesn’t work if the country is already backsliding

Question 17

authoritarian promotion

Answer 17

1. not as clear cut
2. question is if they’re consciously promoting authoritarianism or just want to promote their interests which happen to be authoritarian
3. doesn’t seem like it’s a conscious choice

Question 18

effect of linkage and leverage on authoritarianism

Answer 18

1. Encouraging authoritarian regimes by the power of example: successful authoritarian regimes make it seem as a good option
2. Attempting to increase its national prestige abroad, partly through international promotion of authoritarian values, soft power emphasising benevolence, and respect for sovereignty and cultural pluralism
3. Playing a key role in a circle of authoritarian states that pick up techniques of rule from one another.
4. Seeking to roll back existing democratic institutions or to stifle sprouts of democratic change in territories where it enjoys special influence
5. Helping to ensure the survival of authoritarian regimes that are key economic and strategic partners.
6. Working to shape international institutions to make them regime-type-neutral instead of weighted in favour of democracy

2: “we’re not gonna tell you what to do, we just want to trade/you can decide for yourself”.
3: similar types of propaganda across authoritarian leaders, learning from each other, techniques of oppression being taken over by other states.
4: Russia in Belarus and former Soviet countries influencing elections for example. But is this to promote authoritarianism or to protect own regime? Russia doesn’t want pro-democratic protests to spill over to Russia.
6: neutralise pro-western idea of democracy, accept there’s different values or regimes.