1.2 Demographic Transition Flashcards
What is the demographic transition model? What are the assumptions?
Shows the relationship between modernisation and birth, death and natural growth rates. It can be used to explain past and predict future changes by comparing to how other countries went through the DTM
Assumptions: society and modernisation take the form of transition from peasant society to modern society. Mortality rates respond quickly to economic progress, whereas fertility rates take longer. When fertility rates are more than mortality rates, population grows.
What is stage 1 of the DTM?
The high stationary stage
High stable birth rates, fluctuating death rates, creating low rates of natural increase. This is because society is pre industrial and so births are high for economic assets and death rates are high - most live in rural areas with high youthful populations.
E.g. Peruvian Tribes in the Amazon.
What is stage 2 of the DTM?
Early expansionary stage
Births are high and fluctuating however birth rate starts to decline fast due to increased technology, food, medicines, nutrition, sanitation, etc. whereas birth rates do not change as fast due to social norms. This also encourages urbanisation and thus there are high rates of natural growth.
E.g. LICs such as Rwanda
What is stage 3 of the DTM?
Late expanding stage
Death rates stabilise at a low level, whilst birth rates fall due to improved living standards, education, and contraception. Urbanisation generally slows and life expectancy increases and infant mortality falls. Birth rates still fluctuate above death rates so population still grows slowly.
E.g. developing countries such as the BRICS
What is stage 4 of the DTM?
This is the low stationary stage
Fully developed society, low fertility and mortality which are roughly equal, so population stabilises and stops growing - life expectancy rises, and birth rates tend to fluctuate more than death rates so still may rise.
E.g. HICs like the UK
What is stage 5 of the DTM?
Decline
Has reached a highly service dominated HIC with high status of women, low net migration, rising house prices, children seen as economic burden, high life expectancy however due to ageing populations and rise on NCDs, birth rates rise and mortality is more than fertility, causing slow rates of population decline.
E.g. HICs such as Japan and Russia
Why is the DTM useful?
Can explain past and future demographic changes
- Universal and easy to understand - in theory applied to all countries
- Provides starting point for all studies of demographic change over time e.g. population boom
- Timescales are flexible and determined by the speed of modernisation rather than time.
What are some criticisms of the DTM?
- Eurocentric, assuming all countries follow the European sequence of modernisation - cultures, religions, customs etc. all affect rates.
- Ignores inequalities
- Cannot predict timescales
- Does not account for policies
- Does not account for migration
- Cannot predict pandemics, disease or war
- Broad and unspecific
How have developing countries gone through the DTM?
Higher birth rates in stages 1 and 2. Stage 2 fall in death rate due to improvements in healthcare already made in HICs, as well as international aid and development. Birth rates may has increased due to improved survival rate of child bearers. Many developing countries have higher populations and so implement policies to control population growth.
What are some examples of countries who have not followed the stages?
Mexico - birth rates increase at stage 2 due to increased healthcare and mother survival
Japan - industrialisation began in 1860 and by 1980 it had become a HIC - birth rates rose at the start of stage 2, fueling faster growth rates so passed through stages 2 and 3 in half the time
Taiwan - previously Japanese colony, receiving large amounts of aid from the US and Japan between 60s and 90s, growing at 10% per year. Stage 2 began in 1920, birth rates rose but fell fast in stage 3 where population rates started to decline. Entered stage 4 in 1990s, taking only 75 years to move from stage 1 to stage 4.
