11. reasoning and decision making Flashcards
reasoning about conditionals
define deductive reasoning
reasoning in situations where the conclusions can be determined to follow with certainty form the premises
reasoning about conditionals
define inductive reasoning
reasoning in situations which the conclusions follow only probabilistically from the premise
reasoning about conditionals
define a conditional statement
if a, then b
an assertion that if an antecedent is true that a consequent must be true
Which aspect of Reasoning about conditionals is particularly difficult to us
why
being presented with neutral material makes it difficult to recognise the importance of exploring the negation of the consequence
because people tend to select cars that will be informative under a probabilistic model not a strict logical model
whats prior probability
probability that a hypothesis is true befor econsideration fo the evidence
whats posterior probability
probability that a hypothesis is true after consideration fo the evidence
hwo do you calculate posterior probability
take into account
- prior probability
- Evidence
- how reliable the evidence i s
what factors mislead our reasoning about probabilities
base rate neglect
- failiure to take base rate into account in making probability judgements
judgement of probability
- bias to estimations of probabilities when we must rely on factors such as memory and similarity judgement
subjective utility in decision making
the subjective values someone places on something
usually forms a non-liinear funciton
the subjective value decreases more steeply in a negative direction
