11. Anticipating Risk In Science And Engineering Flashcards
Qualitative notion of risk
A definition of risk without numerical values or degrees
Quantitative notion of risk
A definition of risk with numerical values or degrees
Decision making under certainty
Action has only one outcome
Decision making under risk
Action has more than one possible outcome; results of each outcome is known; probability of each outcome is known
Decision making under ignorance
Action has more than one possible outcome; each outcome is known; probabilities of some outcomes are not known.
Decision making under deep uncertainty
Action has more than one possible outcome; not all of these outcomes are known, nor are their probabilities
Expected value models of risk
Models of risk with a quantifiable probability and a quantifiable severity of each outcome
Marginal diminishing utility curve
The utility of each additional dollar decreases
Subjective dimensions of risk
The real-life risk assessment of humans, which may or may not correspond to actual risks
Principle of insufficient reason
When one does not know the probabilities of outcomes, each outcome is assigned the same probability
Minimax
Choosing the action where the worst possible outcome is the least bad, compared to the other actions
Precautionary principle
If an action or policy has the suspected risk of causing harm, in the absence of scientific consensus whether this action is harmful or not, the burden of proof that it is not harmful in the way that some people claim, lies with those that intend to take action or to propose to perform this particular action or policy
Actualist approach
One should assign to an action with uncertain outcomes the utility of the outcome that actually materializes.
The expected utility approach
The morality of uncertain situations can be determined by the expected utility model
