1. Evaluate The View That Valence Factors Are The Most Important Factors Determining Voting Behaviour In UK Elections.

Question 1

P1: Agree Leadership

Answer 1

1. The public image of party leaders has become increasingly important in recent decades, particularly with the rise of digital and social media.
2. Leadership was crucial in elections. For example, in 2010, David Cameron’s youthful and fresh leadership contrasted with Gordon Brown’s uncharismatic image, boosting the Conservative Party. In 2019, Boris Johnson’s personal popularity helped the Conservatives win traditionally Labour-held areas, like the ‘Red Wall’. Conversely, unpopular leaders like Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 contributed to Labour’s worst result since 1935.
3. In 2024, leadership played a key role in Labour’s victory. Rishi Sunak, with low popularity and a net favourability of -51%, suffered from scandals like Partygate and was seen as out of touch. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer had a more favorable image, with a net favorability of -17%, contributing to Labour’s success.

Question 2

P1: Disagree Disagree Issue based and policy

Answer 2

1. Voters may prioritize policies over party leadership. This approach is tied to a more educated electorate and the availability of information online. Economic voting, a subcategory of rational choice theory, suggests people vote based on self-interest, such as homeowners typically supporting the Conservatives, while renters lean towards Labour. In 2024, Labour’s promise to improve rental conditions and address rising mortgage rates attracted renters, while homeowners were less likely to vote Labour.
2. Issue-based voting. A prime example is the 2019 election, where Leave voters largely supported the Tories, and Remain voters favored Labour. This type of voting is especially significant when parties have clear policy differences.

Question 3

P2: Agree Competence v Campaign

Answer 3

1. 1979 election, where Labour was voted out due to the ‘Winter of Discontent’ and its inability to manage the economy and trade unions. The Conservatives capitalized on this perception, using the slogan “Labour Isn’t Working.”
2. Similarly, in the 1997 election, the Conservative government lost credibility due to the economic chaos of ‘Black Wednesday’ in 1992. Despite the economy recovering, voters did not credit the Conservatives for the recovery, and Labour successfully presented themselves as economically competent.
3. In the 2024 election, perceived incompetence of the Conservative Party, especially following scandals like the ‘Partygate’ scandal and economic mismanagement under Liz Truss, was crucial to Labour’s victory.
4. However, the perceived competence of the opposition also matters. In 2019, Labour, under Corbyn, was seen as too radical and untrustworthy with the economy due to its left-wing manifesto and spending promises. This made many voters reluctant to support Labour, despite discontent with the Conservatives.

Question 4

P2: Competence v Campaign Disagree

Answer 4

1. Campaigns involve parties publishing manifestos, advertising, and media appearances to sway voters. In the 2017 election, Labour gained ground despite negative press coverage of Corbyn, showing the impact of campaign dynamics.
2. Key moments in campaigns can dramatically shift voter perception. In 2017, Theresa May’s proposed ‘dementia tax’ sparked a massive backlash, damaging the Conservative Party. In 2010, Gordon Brown’s unguarded remark calling a voter “bigoted” hurt his reputation.
3. In the 2024 election, the rise of Reform UK and incidents like Sunak leaving a D-Day event early and Conservative candidates allegedly using insider information contributed to the party’s significant loss, underscoring how campaign events and gaffes can influence election results

Question 5

P3: Class v Partisan Dealignment Disagree

Answer 5

1. 1979 Election: AB (Middle Class): 42% Conservative, 34% Labour. DE (Working Class): 35% Conservative, 55% Labour Significance: Conservative win driven by middle-class support, Labour’s unpopularity due to economic issues and strikes.
2. 2024 Election: AB (Middle Class): 41% Labour, 38% Conservative. DE (Working Class): 47% Labour, 30% Conservative. Renters: 40% Labour, 35% Conservative. Homeowners: 25% Labour, 45% Conservative
3. In 2024, an estimated 18% of 18-24 year olds voted Green, 41% voted Labour, just
   9% voted Reform and 8% voted Conservative.
   In comparison, just 3% of over 60s voted Green. In this age group, 24% voted
   Labour, 16% voted Reform and 40% voted Conservative. Turnout among the 65 age group in 2017 was around 25 percentage points higher
   than among 1824 year olds

Question 6

P3: Valence is more important than social factors

Answer 6

1. Since the 1970s, ‘partisan dealignment’ has reduced the influence of social factors. This shift has increased the importance of short-term valence factors, such as leadership and perceived competence.
2. In the 2019-2024 period, a significant swing from Conservative to Labour occurred. In 2019, the Conservatives won many seats in the North and Wales due to Brexit and Johnson’s popularity, but lost most of these in 2024 due to a lack of trust in the Conservative Party, compounded by issues like incompetence and scandal.
3. Class, once a key determinant of voting behaviour, is now less influential, and age has also become a weaker factor. As a result, voters increasingly focus on leadership and competence when deciding which party to support.