1. Evaluate The Extent To Which General Elections In The UK Are Lost By The Government Rather Than Won By The Opposition.

Question 1

P1: Leadership Agree

Answer 1

1. This was evident in the 2024 election, where Rishi Sunak had a net favourability of -51%, damaged by scandals like Partygate and his out-of-touch image. Despite Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net favourability being only -17%, he won a landslide victory, highlighting the government’s unpopularity as the decisive factor.
2. Similarly, in the 2010 election, David Cameron’s relatively low approval ratings were overshadowed by the unpopularity of Gordon Brown, with 33% seeing Cameron as the most capable PM, compared to 29% for Brown. In 1979, James Callaghan’s failure to manage the Winter of Discontent and militant trade unions made Labour highly unpopular, and Thatcher’s lack of widespread popularity didn’t prevent her from benefiting from the government’s unpopularity.

Question 2

P1: Leadership Disagree

Answer 2

1. If a governing party’s leader becomes unpopular, they may replace them with a new leader to improve their electoral prospects. This was evident in the Conservative Party, which replaced Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss due to their unpopularity. In 2019, Johnson replaced May and used his charisma and popularity to lead the Conservatives to victory.
2. Opposition leaders can also play a key role in election outcomes. For instance, in the 1997 election, Tony Blair’s popularity and strong leadership contrasted with John Major’s party divided over Europe and tainted by ‘sleazeʼ and the cash for questions scandal, helping Labour win decisively.

Question 3

P2: Agree Competence

Answer 3

1. This was evident in the 1979, 1997, 2010, and 2024 elections, where voters turned to the opposition due to dissatisfaction with the ruling party. In 1979, Labour’s inability to manage the economy and trade unions during the Winter of Discontent led to their defeat, with the Conservatives capitalizing on the crisis.
2. Similarly, in 1997, the Conservative government lost its reputation for economic competence, after the events of ‘Black Wednesday’ in 1992, despite economic recovery. In 2024, the Conservatives’ failure to manage issues like COVID-19, especially after the ‘partygate scandal,’ led to their significant loss. The short-lived premiership of Liz Truss, marked by failed economic policies, further damaged the party, contributing to Labour’s landslide victory. Many Labour voters in 2024 chose their party primarily to oust the Conservatives, rather than out of strong support for Labour’s platform.

Question 4

P2: Disagree Opposition Still Have To Be Competent

Answer 4

1. 1997 election, when Labour were successful in presenting themselves as an economically competent party, pledging not to increase income tax and to prioritise national finances.
2. It can also be seen in the 1979 election, when a great deal of the Conservative Partyʼs
   messaging focused on bringing down inflation. The Labour Partyʼs did too, however theirs
   lacked credibility due to their failure when in office.
3. In 2024 too, the Labour Party was successful in presenting itself as the Tories. Labour moved to the centre ground and promised to not raise income tax, national insurance or corporation tax, which made the Conservative Partyʼs usual attack line that they would hike taxes ineffective. Starmer continually promised a return to a
   government of service that was competent, rather than self-serving and incompetent

Question 5

P3: Disagree Opposition’s Manifesto

Answer 5

1. This can be seen in the 1997 election, when Blair successfully rebranded the Labour Party. Blair drove forward the policy of modernisation and abandoned old fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of Trade Union powers, which might put off middle-class voters.
2. Blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals of law and order (‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crimeʼ), an issue that mattered to voters after rising crime rates in the early 1990s.
3. Its 1997 platform stressed specific policy details where it promised to make a difference, such as
   reducing primary school class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists. As a consequence, the Labour Party was able to offer a concrete policy platform and real change to the electorate, which enabled Labour to win the election with a landslide.

Question 6

P3: Agree Current Lose If The Policies Are Similar Because They Are Tainted

Answer 6

1. Opposition parties often have similar policies to the governing party, but are able to win as they provide a change in terms of leadership and arenʼt tainted by their record.
2. In the 1979 election, both parties focused on tackling inflation, with the Conservative manifesto being moderate. It suggested privatizing nationalized industries and limiting Trade Union power, but did not hint at Thatcher’s later radical economic policies.
3. In 2010 too, the policies of the LC were relatively similar, with both parties supporting austerity and bringing down the deficit, however the Cs reputation hadnʼt been damaged by the financial crash
4. Finally, in 2024, the Labour Party intentionally moved to the centre but in many areas they were similar: n the 2024 election, both parties pledged to increase defense spending to 2.5%, not raise taxes, invest in the NHS, and tackle illegal immigration. As a result, the election was primarily focused on the government’s record rather than policy differences.