Workforce Planning & Talent Mgmt Flashcards
How can you address an HR deficit when the forecasted demand requirements cannot be satisfied solely by the use of current internal workforce supply of workers
Recruitment - compensation schemes to attract new talent
Hire PT
Recall laid off workers or retirees
Hire temp workers
Quantitative data is
Quantities, numbers, stats
Economic outlook, demographics, political and regulatory environment, technological and societal change
The process of ensuring that looks of skilled employees are trained and available to meet the strategic objectives of the organization
Succession management
Use past data to predict future demand, can be simple moving average or a weighted moving average
Time series models
The range of plausible values of a prediction based on a given set of assumptions
Envelope
The process of finding employees for key managerial positions
Replacement management
This forecasting technique is very useful where environmental changes are predictable or stable, with a great degree of uncertainty and when no formal planning exists
Qualitative forecasting
A supply forecasting technique :
A model that produces a series of matrices that detail the various patterns of movement to and from various jobs in the organization
Markov Model
An individualized personnel record for managerial, professional or technical personnel that include all elements in the skills inventory with the addition of information in specialized duties * keeps mgmt prepared with internal account of who you have available and in what positions should the company go through a merger or downsizing
Management inventory
If an organization does not incorporate information from the external environment what impact will this have on HR forecasting ?
Incompatibility between organizational goals and HR planning
Implemented when severe, unanticipated changes to organizational or environmental factors completely negate the usefulness of the existing HR forecasting predictions or projections
Contingency planning
The second stage of the change process involves trial and error process of taking action to move the firm through intended change
Moving
Quantitative demand forecasting techniques
Trend analysis Ratio analysis Time series model Regression analysis HR budgets/staffing tables Structural equation modelling (SEM)
What is the term used when errors in estimating the supply of human capital are amplified along the supply chain resulting in large overestimates of hiring needs
Bull whip effect
How can you address he surplus when the internal workforce supply exceeds the organizations demand for personnel ?
Employee layoffs or terminations
Job sharing
Reduction of hours or shifts
Hiring freeze
Are quantitative or qualitative models better when forecasting demand in stable markets with a high degree of certainty in the relationship between the demand for labour and the indicators of that demand ?
Quantitative
Which techniques make use of groups of experts in an effort to increase the validity and reliability of the forecast and information used to forecast
Delphi & Nominal Group technique
A proposed a sequence of events with its own set of assumptions and associated program details
Scenario
Analyze the chain or ripple effect that promotions or job losses have on the movements of employees. It identifies the total number of vacant or open positions in the organization
Movement analysis
Supply forecasting techniques
Markov analysis Linear programming Skills and management inventories succession replacement analysis Movement analysis Vacancy models
Which model identifies the specific number of external and internal personnel required at each level for the organization as a whole? *hs more predictive capacity than markov over short and long term period of 3-10 years
Vacancy model
Long run forecast
Extremely flexible- typically extends 5 or more years ahead of current operational period
As the initial step of organizational change, this involved the development of a shared understanding among stakeholders that a particular change is necessary
Unfreezing
Determining the net requirement for human capital by assessing the demand for and supply of Human Resources now and in the future
HR Forecasting
What type of forecasting is concerned with changes in the external environment ?
Event based
Disadvantages such as time and cost, results cannot be validated statistically and selection of experts can skew results come from which qualitative forecasting technique ?
Delphi technique
A quantitative, operational, short run demand that contains numbers and types of jobs required by the organization as a whole and for each sub unit
HR budgets (can be put into staffing table )
What is another name for vacancy model ?
Renewal
A qualitative method for imagining future possible organizational states and the resulting capabilities, activities or strategies necessary to be successful
* most often used to develop strategy
Scenario Planning Process
In the markov model how many possible movements does an employee have ?
5
Presupposes that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent variable
Good choice for short term, medium term and long term forecast (good for large amounts of organizational data)
Regression analysis
Change management model 4 stages
Denial
Resistance
Exploration
Commitment
A single numerical estimate of HR requirements associated with a specific time horizon and a set of assumptions
Prediction
3 types of forecasting
Transaction based
Event based
Process based
A framework for a manly zing a problem that seeks to identify all relevant factors and stakeholders that are acting to either sustain the current state or to move away from the current state (driving forces & restraining forces)
Force field analysis
Medium run forecast
Identifies requirements for 2-5 years into the future
A blend of qualitative and quantitative modelling that incorporates a set of assumptions about relationships among variables in a mathematical algorithm. It can simultaneously model demand and supply and very useful for testing the impact of assumptions
Simulation
A forecasting method where forecasting is not focused on a specific internal organizational event
Process based forecasting
Unfreezing requires 3 conditions
1) disconfirmation of the validity of status quo( stakeholders convinced current way is no longer successful)
2) inducing survival anxiety (individuals feel pressure to change)
3) creating psychological safety (belief that individual can take certain risk and openly discuss issues without fear)
Avoids many problems associated with face to face groups refers to which qualitative forecasting technique ?
Delphi technique
Qualitative demand forecasting techniques
Delphi technique
Nominal group technique
Scenario
Qualitative data is
Descriptive, observed but not measured
More specific info that can be easily used to produce HR system development plans
Timeframe of short run forecast
Extends from current forecast for the next 1-2 year period beyond the current operational needs
Forecasting process (4 steps)
1) determine overall demand for personnel
2) assess in house skills & internal supply characteristics
3) determine net demand requirements from external environment
4) develop he plans and programs to ensure right people are at the right place at the right time
According to Kurt Lewis what is the first step in the change plan ?
Force field analysis
A forecasting method in which forecasting concerned with changes in the external environment
Event based forecasting
Nominal group technique
Long run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments (qualitative that does meet face to face but only after predatory work is done)
A supply forecasting technique that is a complex mathioatoxal procedure commonly used for project analysis in engineering and business applications.
Linear programming
A forecasting method that focuses on tracking internal changes instituted by the organizations managers
Transaction based forecasting
Most popular supply forecasting technique used for contemporary supply side in medium to large organizations
Markov Models
A quantitative method of projecting HR demand by analyzing the historical relationship between operational index and the number of employees required
Ratio Analysis
A process in which the forecasts and judgements of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand
Delphi technique
Delphi technique steps (6)
1) define issue or question
2) identify experts, tern and time horizon
3) orient experts
4) issue 1st round questionnaire
5) issues 1st round summary and 2nd round questionnaire
6) continue issuing questionnaires
A forecasting method that extrapolates from historical trends
Trend analysis
HR forecasting time horizons, the current forecast time frame is
Immediate needs of the organization, up to a maximum one year into the future
Third and final stage of change initiative involves putting policies, practices and structures in place to establish new norms around the change
Refreezing
Forecasting method most used to develop strategy
Qualitative
Incorporates several HR estimated based on a variety of assumptions
Projection
Qualitative demand forecasting methods include
Subjective approaches
Delphi technique
Nominal group technique
Scenario
