Wk7b Flashcards

1
Q

What is absolute purchasing power parity

A

The equilibrium exchange rate between two currencies
equals the ratio of national price levels in both nations.
S= P/P*

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2
Q

What is the law of one price

A

A given commodity should have the same price (so
that the purchasing power of the two currencies is at
parity) in both countries when expressed in terms
of the same currency.
- Caused by commodity arbitrage.

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3
Q

What is the need of ppp

A
  • Exchange rates only reflect when goods are traded
  • currencies are traded for reasons other than trade in goods and services
  • speculation and interventions of interest rates can influence the FEM
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4
Q

What is the purpose of PPP

A

Differences in living standards between nations
because PPP takes into account the relative cost of
living and the inflation rates of the countries,

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5
Q

What is the assumption of PPP

A

In the absence of transportation and other
transaction costs, competitive markets will equalize
the price of an identical good in two countries when
the prices are expressed in the same currency

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6
Q

Why does PPP fluctuate

A

PPP rate fluctuations are mostly due to different
rates of inflation in the two economies which would
result in the difference in prices at home and abroad

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7
Q

Why can PPP theory be misleading

A

Appears to give exchange rate that equilibrates trade in
goods and services while ignoring capital account.- this is important as it determines the exchange rate
- At exchange rate that equilibrates trade in goods and
services, capital inflows would produce surplus in
balance of payments, while capital outflows would lead
to deficits
- Will not even give exchange rate that equilibrates trade
in goods and services because of existence of nontraded
goods.
- International trade tends to equalize prices of traded
goods and services, not nontraded goods.

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8
Q

What is relative PPP

A

The change in the exchange rate over a period of
time should be proportional to the relative change
in the price levels of two nations over the same
time period.

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9
Q

What is the equation of the relative PPP

A

S1 =
(P1 / P0//P1 / P0) x S0
where S1 and S0 = exchange rates in period 1 and base period
S = spot rate = ratio of price at home / ratio of price abroad x exchange rate

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10
Q

Look at derivation of PPP on the slides

A
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11
Q

How do you test PPP theory

A

-Plot actual inflation differentials and exchange rate
percentage changes for two or more countries on a
graph
- If the points deviate or ‘wander away’ significantly from
the PPP line over time, then PPP does not hold.

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12
Q

Using a statistical test how do you test for PPP

A
  • Apply regression analysis to historical exchange rates and inflation
    differentials:
  • ef = a0 + a1 [ (1+Inflh)/(1+Inflf) – 1 ] + m
  • Then apply t-tests to the regression coefficients. (Test for a0 = 0, and a1 =
    1.)
  • If any coefficient differs significantly from what was expected, PPP
    does not hold
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13
Q

What can inflation differentials forecast in the long run

A

Movments in the exchange rate especially large ones

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14
Q

What do empirical studies on PPP show

A

indicate that the relationship between
inflation differentials and exchange rates is not perfec

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15
Q

Why does PPP not occur

A

confounding effects
o Exchange rates are also affected by differences in
inflation, interest rates, income levels, government
controls and expectations of future rates
- there may be a lack of subs for certain traded goods

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16
Q

When does PPP work well

A
  • highly traded individual commodities
  • over longer periods of time
  • in cases of purely
    monetary disturbances
    and inflationary periods
17
Q

When does PPP work less well

A
  • for all traded goods together
  • for one or two decades
  • in periods of monetary stability
18
Q

When does PPP not work well

A
  • for all goods including non traded goods
  • in the short run
  • in situations of major structural change
19
Q

What is the fisher effect

A

Countries with higher inflation rates have higher interest
rates.

20
Q

What are the implications of the international fisheries effect

A

Currency with the lower interest rate is expected to
appreciate relative to the one with a higher rate.
- Financial market arbitrage ensures interest rate
differential is an unbiased predictor of change in future
spot rate

21
Q

What does the IFE state - and the equation

A

States that the spot rate adjusts to the interest
rate differential between two countries.
- IFE = PPP + FE
ഥ𝑒𝑡
𝑒0
=
(1 + 𝑟ℎ)𝑡 /
(1 + 𝑟𝑓)𝑡
- Where ഥ𝑒𝑡 is the expected exchange rate in period t.

22
Q

Simplified IFM

A

If 𝑟𝑓 is relatively small:

𝑟ℎ − 𝑟𝑓 =
𝑒1−𝑒0/ 𝑒0

23
Q

What is the law of one price

A
  • A given commodity (one good ) should have the same price in both countries when expressed in terms of the same currency ( absence of transaction costs and trade barriers )
  • caused by commodity arbiatge
24
Q

What happens is inflation is higher at home than in a foreign country

A

Then the consumers PPP Is grater in foreign goods than on home goods and vice versa
- it means PPP does not hold

25
Q

What does ef

A

The percentage change in forgiven currency should change to maintain parity in the new price indexes of the two countries