Wk7b Flashcards
What is absolute purchasing power parity
The equilibrium exchange rate between two currencies
equals the ratio of national price levels in both nations.
S= P/P*
What is the law of one price
A given commodity should have the same price (so
that the purchasing power of the two currencies is at
parity) in both countries when expressed in terms
of the same currency.
- Caused by commodity arbitrage.
What is the need of ppp
- Exchange rates only reflect when goods are traded
- currencies are traded for reasons other than trade in goods and services
- speculation and interventions of interest rates can influence the FEM
What is the purpose of PPP
Differences in living standards between nations
because PPP takes into account the relative cost of
living and the inflation rates of the countries,
What is the assumption of PPP
In the absence of transportation and other
transaction costs, competitive markets will equalize
the price of an identical good in two countries when
the prices are expressed in the same currency
Why does PPP fluctuate
PPP rate fluctuations are mostly due to different
rates of inflation in the two economies which would
result in the difference in prices at home and abroad
Why can PPP theory be misleading
Appears to give exchange rate that equilibrates trade in
goods and services while ignoring capital account.- this is important as it determines the exchange rate
- At exchange rate that equilibrates trade in goods and
services, capital inflows would produce surplus in
balance of payments, while capital outflows would lead
to deficits
- Will not even give exchange rate that equilibrates trade
in goods and services because of existence of nontraded
goods.
- International trade tends to equalize prices of traded
goods and services, not nontraded goods.
What is relative PPP
The change in the exchange rate over a period of
time should be proportional to the relative change
in the price levels of two nations over the same
time period.
What is the equation of the relative PPP
S1 =
(P1 / P0//P1 / P0) x S0
where S1 and S0 = exchange rates in period 1 and base period
S = spot rate = ratio of price at home / ratio of price abroad x exchange rate
Look at derivation of PPP on the slides
How do you test PPP theory
-Plot actual inflation differentials and exchange rate
percentage changes for two or more countries on a
graph
- If the points deviate or ‘wander away’ significantly from
the PPP line over time, then PPP does not hold.
Using a statistical test how do you test for PPP
- Apply regression analysis to historical exchange rates and inflation
differentials: - ef = a0 + a1 [ (1+Inflh)/(1+Inflf) – 1 ] + m
- Then apply t-tests to the regression coefficients. (Test for a0 = 0, and a1 =
1.) - If any coefficient differs significantly from what was expected, PPP
does not hold
What can inflation differentials forecast in the long run
Movments in the exchange rate especially large ones
What do empirical studies on PPP show
indicate that the relationship between
inflation differentials and exchange rates is not perfec
Why does PPP not occur
confounding effects
o Exchange rates are also affected by differences in
inflation, interest rates, income levels, government
controls and expectations of future rates
- there may be a lack of subs for certain traded goods