Week 2a Flashcards
what is risk in economics
Risk is a measure of uncertainty about the future payoff to an investment,
assessed over some time horizon and relative to a benchmark.
what happens to the price when the investment is riskier
the investment is less desirable hence the price is lower
how is risk related to investment
Risk refers to the uncertainty of future outcomes, particularly in terms of potential losses or negative impacts on investments.
how can risk be quantified
Risk can be quantified by assessing the probability and magnitude of potential losses associated with an investment.
What contributes to the emergence of risk in investments?
Risk arises from uncertainty about future outcomes, where the exact outcome among many possibilities is unknown.
Why is it essential to consider the future payoff when evaluating risk?
Evaluating risk requires considering all potential future payoffs and their likelihoods to understand the variability in investment outcomes.
Can risk be assessed over any time horizon?
Yes, risk must be evaluated over a specific time horizon, with shorter periods generally associated with lower risk.
How should risk be measured?
Risk should be measured relative to a benchmark or reference point, such as the performance of experienced investment advisors or comparable investments.
what does probability theory state that considering uncertainty requires
listing all the possible outcomes
figuring out the chance of each one occurring
what is true about probability
its always between 0 and 1
can also be stated as frequencies
what is the expected value
Expected value is the mean : the sum of their probabilities multiplied by
their payoffs.
How does the range of potential outcomes relate to risk?
The wider the range of possible outcomes, the greater the perceived risk associated with an investment.
What is a risk-free asset?
A risk-free asset is an investment with a known future value and a guaranteed return, typically equal to the risk-free rate of return.
Why is measuring the spread important in assessing risk?
measuring the spread allows for the quantification of risk by assessing the variability or dispersion of potential outcomes, providing insight into the level of risk associated with an investment.
what is the variance
The variance is the average of the squared deviations of the possible
outcomes from their expected value, weighted by their probabilities
what are the steps to calculate the variance
- compute expected value
- subtract expected value from each of the possible payoffs and square the result
- multiply each result time the probability
- add up the results
Why is standard deviation considered more useful than variance?
Standard deviation is preferred as it is expressed in the same units as the original data, making it easier to interpret and compare across different investments.
How can standard deviation be converted into a percentage?
Standard deviation can be expressed as a percentage of the initial investment, allowing for a clearer understanding of the risk relative to the investment amount.
Why is comparing investments based on standard deviation helpful?
Comparing investments based on standard deviation enables investors to assess the relative level of risk associated with each investment, aiding in decision-making.
When given a choice between two investments with equal expected payoffs, what is the usual preference?
Given equal expected payoffs, investors typically prefer the investment with the lower standard deviation, as it signifies lower variability and perceived risk.
what is VAR value at risk
The worst possible loss over a specific horizon at a
given probability.
what question does VAR provide the answer for
how much will I lose if the worst possible
scenario occurs
Why do most people prefer to avoid risk?
Most individuals are risk-averse, meaning they dislike uncertainty and are willing to pay to avoid it, as seen in behaviors such as purchasing insurance.