week 9 - voter turnout + vote choice Flashcards
voter turnout formula
E(u) = p x b – c + d
E(u)
- expected utility (value you get from doing something).
- Can be positive/negative.
b
direct benefit you get from an action; benefit you would receive from the election of your
preferred party/candidate
p
the probability you receive the benefit (ranges from 0-1)
c
cost associated with undertaking an action
d
- the intrinsic reward from doing the action.
- generally the reward that motivates you. - can be positive or negative.
when is it rational to take an action
if the E(u) is greater than zero
what is the decision to turnout a result of
a cost-benefit analysis
why does b and p get dropped out when using election as an example
the probability of your vote (which is p x b) changing the outcome of an election is almost zero.
what is the expected utility calculation reduced to when voting
E(u) = - c + d
when should you vote
if the intrinsic reward outweighed the costs.
costs and intrinsic benefits of voting
Costs: time, learning about candidates, transportation and lost income
Intrinsic Benefits: exercising your civic duty; looking good to others.
four factors individual level factors linked to turnout
Age
Education
Political Sophistication
Income
age in voting turnout
- older = higher turnout
- Older people tend to have a higher sense of civic duty which boosts the intrinsic benefits one receives from participation.
- Growing older increases one’s amount of information.
education/political sophistication in voting turnout
- more education = higher turnout.
- Educated people have a higher sense of civic duty.
- They are more knowledgeable about registration procedures and the location of polling places.
- Fewer costs and more rewards = positive expected utility.
income in voting turnout
- more wealth = higher turnout
- Low-income people are more likely to put basic survival needs before political engagement or civic participation.
- higher costs and less rewards = negative expected utility.
country-level factors linked to turnout
Compulsory voting
Electoral system
Number of parties
Party polarization
Federalism
Competitiveness
how does compulsory voting affect voter variation
- higher turnout
- Sanctioning those who do not vote lowers the costs of voting.
- the turnout bump is biggest where compulsory rules are both sanctioned and enforced
which colony had compulsory voting
georgia (until 1787)
how does electoral system affect voter variation
- lower turnout = non-PR systems; higher turnout = PR systems.
- For minor party voters in non-proportional systems, p is even lower.
- minor parties are less likely to waste resources making frivolous appeals for their supporters to turn out
- More turnout under PR systems, because they might deem the system or democracy is fairer and would be more likely to vote.
how does the number of parties increase voter turnout
- more parties = more turnout
- More parties increase the likelihood of a person finding a party they like – benefits (b) would be higher.
how could turnout be lower with the number of parties
More likely that winning parties will be a part of a coalition government where there are many parties (decreases the benefits for voters).
More cognitive costs: voters may get overwhelmed by the multitude of choices and give up.
how does party polarization affect voter variation
- polarization = higher turnout.
- More polarized parties leads to people find parties that match their ideological viewpoint; increasing the benefits (b) for voters.
federalism
- federalism = low turnout
- voters are called to the polls much more often (this leads to voter fatigue and increased costs).
