Week 9: Political Revolutions Flashcards
What are the advantages and dangers of cities for revolutionary contention?
- Cities are where the coercive capacity of the state is the strongest
BUT revolutionary oppositions are most vulnerable to repression in cities - Cities are where the nerve centers of government are concentrated
BUT regimes are most vulnerable to disruption and overthrow in cities
What does the proximity to government have to do with the revolution?
Proximity to government centers of power magnifies the stakes and risks involve in revolution for both oppositions and regimes
A spatial trade-off exists between a revolutionary opposition’s exposure to government repression and its ability to disrupt government directly that is associated with proximity to or distance from government centers of power
What is the proximity dilemma in revolution?
- spatial relocation
- learning behavior (tactical choice and innovation)
- structural changes in the environment
Cities vs the countryside in the power of numbers?
In the countryside, the ability to deploy numbers matters less affecting outcomes than the ability to deploy violence
In cities, numbers are strongly related to outcomes, but only at extremely high numbers do the odds truly tip in favor of oppositions
Who authored the 3rd generation of scholarship on revolutions?
Skocpol – Structuralist approach
What is the 3rd generation on scholarship about revolutions?
- revolutions are the product of broader social and political conditions that make revolutionary outcomes inevitable
- revolutionaries and revolutionary movements are not necessary for the outcome
- revolutionary leaderships, the participants in revolutions, and incumbent regimes act out a drama already put in place by larger structural forces
- success or failure of revolution is determined before the events even begin
Who authored the 4th generation of theories of revolution?
Goldstone
What is the 4th generation of theories of revolution?
- revolutions unfold out of interactions between oppositions and incumbent regime, with multiple critical junctures
- focus on agency, contingency, and interactions, as well as on the roles played by networks, organizations and culture
- do not see revolution as a completely distinct process from other mobilizational phenomena, but involve many of the same processes
- broadened the number of cases analyzed
- greater attention to other sorts of divisions in society besides class (ethnicity, gender, race, region, etc.)
What is the with the contingency and 4th generation of theories of revolution?
- 4th generation sees fundamental similarities between what happens within mobilizational waves and cycles and what happens within revolutions, and the main difference being that revolutions involve the development of efforts at regime-change
- iterated and intensified interactions between incumbent regimes and oppositions
- revolutionary movements sometimes begin as social movements aimed at achieving certain reforms or policy goals, but evolve into revolutionary movements to overthrow the incumbent regime out of the interactions between the state and opposition
- a situation becomes revolutionary when the elites in power reject all competing claims yet fail to repress the opposition, leading oppositions to contest sovereignty
What is preference falsification?
When individuals have 2 sets of preferences – a public set of preferences and a private set of preferences; incentives exist to lie anytime people fear expression of their private (genuine) preferences
- some with strong ‘expressive needs’ will express their private preferences irrespective of the costs, but most people are subject to some degree of fear of retaliation and/or ‘repetitional incentive’
Who authored preference falsification
Kuran (1995)
What does Kuran think about the unpredictability of revolutions?
Small changes in the structure of preferences can have huge consequences
What does Kuran think the role is of the revolution’s organization?
- expose the regime’s vulnerability in order to raise the perceived probability of revolutionary uprising, helping to foster belief that a vast majority privately want change
- mold private preferences: find and expose the wrongs of the current regime in an attempt to convince people that the regime needs to be changed, or at least hold this belief privately
- enhance the advantages of joining public opposition by lessening the repetitional costs of dissent and serve as a support network for those who would revolt
*basically: revolutions can only be explained by hindsight, and there are a wide variety of factors that could lower the thresholds at which individuals would rebel – he is not interested in identifying these or developing a theory about them vs. structural theories of revolt
4 generation of theories of revolution basically see what:
similarities between what happens within mobiliztional waves and cycles
- distinguish between revolutionary situations and revolutionary outcomes (Tilly)
- point to the intensified interactions between incumbent regimes and oppositions and the contingencies that these introduce
What are those intensified interactions between incumbent regimes & oppositions?
- thickened history (Beissinger) – the heightened pace of interactions exercises effects on decision-makers and the public
- eventful approach to the study of mobilization – a focus on transformative moments that emerge out of these interactions (Sewell)
- critical role of emotion and information in shaping events.