Week 11: Revolution & Mobilizational Processes

Question 1

Why are revolutions clustered in time and space?

Answer 1

Cases are independent caused, and the structural conditions that cause revolution are clustered in time and space

Question 2

What is the problem with treating cases as completely independent from one another:

Answer 2

1. evident linkages connecting actors
2. the appearance of multiple failed attempts at revolution alongside successes

Question 3

What does the 4th generation perspective say about the successful revolution and how it raises expectations of the possibility of success elsewhere?

Answer 3

1. by showing that the seemingly impossible is possible (proven by the example of others)
2. by providing a blueprinting for action that worked in another context
3. by creating a sense of the flow and momentum to events that can affect participation or undermine belief in the future viability of an incumbent regime in another context

Question 4

What are 3 forms of diffusion?

Answer 4

1. relational diffusion (ex. color revolutions)
2. non-relational diffusion (ex. Arab spring)
3. brokered diffusion (ex. comintern)

Question 5

The “color” revolutions model?

Answer 5

1. use of stolen elections as the occasion for challenging the state and mounting a mass siege of government
2. extensive electoral monitoring and alternative vote counts
3. foreign support for local civil society movements
4. organization of youth movements using unconventional protest tactics to undermine popularity of regime
5. a united opposition (sometimes cobbled together under pressure from youth movements or external forces)
6. a strategically-coordinated electoral campaign to undermine the regime and mobilize the population prior to elections, used to support massive mobilizations upon the announcement of the expected fradulent results and the declaration of opposition as winners (competing sovereignties)
7. Use of the power of number and techniques of non-violent resistance, often learned from abroad

Question 6

Does diffusion matter for revolutionary outcomes?

Answer 6

• third-generation structural says it doesn’t – outcomes are largely structured before revolutionary contention begins
• 4the generation would argue that is does matter

Question 7

There are 2 perspectives on how diffusion matters

Answer 7

1. the excessive failures perspective: the transnational diffusion of revolution is based on cognitive shortcuts and distorted inferences that assume that success in one case can be easily transferred to another, even for groups for which it is irrational to mobilize – this leads to excessive numbers of failures.
2. the additional successes perspective: Beissinger (2007, 2022).
   - the unknowable effects of intensified interactions on outcomes
   (likelihood of successes is higher within a wave than outside)
   - if the chances of success are greater within a wave than outside of it, then mobilization within wave is rational
   - the wave exerts effects on expectations of outcomes, which can influence participation and defection

Question 8

Transnational waves and authoritarian learning

Answer 8

• it is not only oppositions that learn from; incumbent regimes also learn how to prevent the spread of revolution
• authoritarian learning is easier when revolution is directed against multiple targets and when the wave is more spread out over time

Question 9

What is the selective incentives and the collective action problem in rural rebellions?

Answer 9

1. forceful recruitment
2. redistribution of land, provision of public goods
3. war as a factor that ‘solves’ the collective action problem
   - in a context of civil war, non-participation is not costless
   - ordinary civilians caught in civil war face risks to their lives
   - rebel organization or government can provide protection
   - people often participate in civil war not in spite of risk but in order to manage risk

Question 10

What are the determinants of rebel success in rural rebellions?

Answer 10

• success depends not on numbers but on ability to recruit, organize, equip, and coordinate armed force
• success requires the support of the local population in areas in which they operate

Question 11

What are the urban civic revolutions based on the power of numbers?

Answer 11

• seek to leverage some the revolutionary advantages of cities (large numbers of people, dense networks of communication, more highly resourced people, greater visibility, and proximity to political and economic power)
• cannot deploy selective incentives because they cannot monitor who participates and who does not (controlling who participates is counter to the goal of maximizing participation)
• no opportunity to socialize participants; espouse minimalist (broadly-shared) goals in order to maximize numbers
• leadership plays the role of convener of crowds rather than commander of fighters
• people do not participate because they fear being killed

Question 12

Reliance on the power of numbers and coalition leadership because?

Answer 12

• coalitional leaderships facilitate scaling up through bloc recruitment or through the internet
• coalitions underpinning them are extremely fragile and usually fall apart soon after revolution, facilitating post-revolutionary instability

Question 13

What is fraternization?

Answer 13

Fraternization: to associate or mingle with members of a hostile group?