Week 22 Flashcards
Alignment and Dealignment
How were the vote and seat shares of UKIP and the Brexit Party affected by the referendum?
- The vote share for both parties dramatically decreased after the referendum
- There was no need to vote for the Eurosceptic party after the referendum had been called
What percentage of the vote share did UKIP and the Brexit Party have in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections?
- 2015 Gen Elec 12.6% of the votes
- 2017 GE 1.8% of the votes
- 2019 GE 2% of the votes
What are long-term factors that effect how people vote?
Structural influences
- Social factors (class)
- Political factors (party identity and loyalty)
What are short-term factors that effect how people vote?
Campaign influences
- Current issues and events
- Judgements
- Images and leaders
How do long term and short term factors contribute to the predictability of the outcome of an election is?
- The larger the influence of long-term factors the more predictable the outcome
- Outcomes are less predictable when short term influences are more influential and election precedents are absent
- The dealignment debate focuses on the relative importance of long and short term factors
What did Peter Pulzer (1967) say about social class in British politics?
Direct quote!!!
“class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail.”
In 1945-1970, what percentage of the working class voted Labour?
About 66% of the working class voted Labour
In 1945-1970, what percentage of the middle class voted Conservative?
About 80% of the middle class voted Conservative
Define partisan identification
Psychological attachment to a party
What does The Michigan Model say about party identification and partisan alignment?
- Socialisation and psychological identification with a party (your upbringing influences your party ID)
- Party identification filters political messages
- Short term factors mediate vote decision marginally
- The model expects a high degree of electoral stability
- This model is kind of old
When was the era of alignment?
1945/1950-1970
What was the era of alignment?
- Strong overlap of class-party identification-vote choice
- Facilitated as one important cleavage: economy
- Further eased by relatively clear, objective class structure and interests
How aligned was the era of alignment?
- Not perfect alignment - no full overlap of class and party ID
- Other influences, e.g. religion, age or gender
- Not all voters had strong loyalties
- More individual vote-switching than visible in the aggregate
How important are long term factors today?
- Long term factors have become less important for voters
- Still play some role (e.g., “moderate” partisanship)
What are short term factors?
Factors that change from election to election
