Week 2 Flashcards

1
Q

Have housing bubbles been important in the in the last crises?

A

Yes.

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2
Q

How many major crises have happened since WW2

A

5

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3
Q

Which was the first major cris since WW2?

A

Spain

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4
Q

When was the crisis in Norwy?

A

1987 (fog)

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5
Q

When were the crises in Finland and Sweden?

A

1991 (but)

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6
Q

When was the big crisis in Japan ?

A

1992 (bunny)

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7
Q

What do these crises have in common?

A

A rise in housing prices.

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8
Q

How much do housing prices acrtually rise before one of the major crises?

A

for 4 years

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9
Q

What about housing prices in tye last 100 years ?

A

They have been really flat.

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10
Q

Where do teyh returns for houses come from?

A

Mostly from the people living in these houses.

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11
Q

What are morgages?

A

The loans that people make to get houses.

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12
Q

What time does a standard morgage in the USA hve?

A

30 years.

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13
Q

What interest rate does a standard loan in the US have?

A

Fixed interest rates.

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14
Q

What is the name of an alternative to a normal morgage?

A

an adjustable rate morgage, or ARM

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15
Q

What is an adjustablke rate morgage?

A

So it could be adjustable right from the beginning. So your interest rate will be pegged to some other interest rate that’s in the market. Most commonly the London Interbank Offered Rate, the LIBOR. You would pay an amount relative to that.

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16
Q

What is more common for an adjustable interest rate?

A

More common though is to have a rate that’s fixed for some portion of the loan and then begins to float. By doing that, you will get a lower rate in the early years of the loan, but you’re taking some risk that the rate will increase in the later years of the loan.

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17
Q

What does a 5/25 morgage mean?

A

So for example, a 5/25, sometimes just called 5/1, so 5/25 would mean it’s fixed for five years, and then floating or adjustable for 25 years.

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18
Q

What woule be the difference in payment?

A

You would pay mabre 3.5% instead of 5 % butthen it would adjust.

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19
Q

When would it really makje sense to use an adjustable interest rate?

A

When qwou know you willl be selling the house in the next 5 years.

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20
Q

What are reallz common adjustable interest rates?

A

3/27, 2/28, 5/25, 7/23

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21
Q

Can the rate sometimes be even below the rate the mraket wants us to do?

A

Yes, it can.

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22
Q

Why would lenders do that?

A

We would do that if when you refinance the loan, if you choose to refinance the loan after five years, you have to pay us a little bit of a penalty.

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23
Q

What happens with such a teaser rate after 5 years?

A

Or, if after five years, when you refinance, the rate that you’ll have to pay relative to whatever the reference rate is, has a bigger spread. So for example in the three and a half percent case for a five 5/25 mortgage, you might then pay let’s say 100 basis points which is 1% over the LIBOR rate. If I give you a teaser rate, perhaps you have to pay 200 basis points above the LIBOR rate when there is an adjustment.

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24
Q

What about teaser rates in the United States?

A

They were really popular outside the United States and became more and more popular in the

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25
Q

What are other forms of very flexible morgage structures?

A

You can add in extra things. For example, negative amortization loans. Enable you in the early years of the mortgage, instead of paying off small piece of the mortgage, to actually be increasing the size of the mortgage. So, your payment is much lower in the first few years. This is similar to a teaser rate. What the lender would get in return is either the ability to charge you more in the later years of the mortgage, or to get some payment made to them, if you refinance before you have to make those larger payments

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26
Q

What is a big ballon payment?

A

A large payment after some part of the loan. So instead of paying off, say, approximately 1% of the principal every year for the first five years, you might make one payment of 5% of the principal after 5 years

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27
Q

By which names do prime morgages also go?

A

conforming or agency morgages.

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28
Q

What are prime morgages?

A

And that matters because what makes a mortgage prime is that it conforms, that it conforms to the standards that are set by the government-sponsored enterprises.

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29
Q

What example of agencies can you give us?

A

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, also called the agencies, the housing agencies or Frannie and Freddie. Fannie and Freddie have rules about their loans. The first rule is it can’t be bigger than a certain level for most of the history

30
Q

What was the level of loan up to the financial crisis?

A

417 000

31
Q

WQhta is a second prerequisite for a conforming morgage?

A

So, a second rule would be it would have to have a certain ratio of loan to value. So the total amount, the value of the underlying property would have to have a certain level relative to the loan size. This is our kind of standard 20% down kinds of mortgages.

32
Q

What were other prerequisites?

A

There would need to be a certain credit score for the borrower. And there would be rules about occupancy. So if the borrower has to live in the house and some income limits and documentation. So you have to document it and you have to have a certain income being able to make the payments on the loan.

33
Q

What of all these criteria apply?

A

Then the agencies Frannie or Freddie in the United States are allowed to buy the loans, buy the loans from the bank. So, the bank will make the loan, the bank will then take that loan off their balance sheet and sell the loan to the government agency.

34
Q

What happens if the prime loan does not make its payment?

A

The government will.

35
Q

What areconforming loans packed into securities?

A

Morgage bafcked securities.

36
Q

What can the government not guarantee withg onforming ecurities?

A

The government doesn’t guarantee that people will not prepay their mortgages, or the government can’t make any promises whether their interest rates will change and people will be induced to prepay their mortgages. But nevertheless on the payment, the timely payment of interest and principle.

37
Q

Is a cnforming loan safe?

A

. We’re going to see that any kind of conforming loan is going to be safer, significantly safer than anything else that you can find out there in the markets.

38
Q

What are jumbo loans?

A

Loans thatsa tisfy all of the criteria but not the size of the loan

39
Q

Are there many categories for non prime morgages?

A

Yes, buty people mostly istinguish between tow different categories.

40
Q

What is the most famous non prime morgage?

A

subprime.

41
Q

What are subprime loans?

A

Loans that are btargeted at borrortd woth a tarnished credit histoiry and who hav very little money for downpayment.

42
Q

So what are the problems of subprime morgage?

A

They are inherently riskier and are not guaranteed by the governmtent.

43
Q

What is the other non prime morgage?

A

near prime

44
Q

What is the near orime morgage also known as?

A

the Alt A.

45
Q

What are near prime morgages?

A

Near-prime mortgages are made to borrowers with more minor credit quality issuers or borrowers who are unable or unwilling to provide full documentation of assets or income.

46
Q

exlpain the typical near prime borrower

A

So in some cases, the most common example you’ll hear of this are small business owners who perhaps can’t give you a W2 the same way that an employee can to demonstrate their income. The bank might view them as being really quite a safe borrower, similar to other prime borrowers, but because they’re unable to produce the documentation necessary to get a conforming loan, they’re still going to be considered nonconforming.

47
Q

What happened to subprime morgages in the 2000s

A

they exploded.

48
Q

What was the share of the subprime market in n 1996?

A

So in 1996 the subprime share of the market, this is just subprime, it does not include Alt-A. The subprime share of the market was 9.5% and it stayed relatively steady even dipping slightly over the next seven years before starting to grow rapidly.

49
Q

What do we see for the subprime market between 2003 and 2006?

A

And in the period from 2003 to 2006, we see it grow from 8.3% of the market to 23.5% of the market.

50
Q

Where did the majority of growth happ between 2003 and 2006?

A

The most important thing to note here is that the majority of the growth from 2003 to 2007 was in securitized subprime loans.

51
Q

How can borrowers structure a non prim?

A

high ionterest rates.

52
Q

What is problem if we say high interest rates in subprime morgages?

A

Many will not be able to pay in the first years. We will start with a low rate for the first few years. So let’s say for the first three years the rate is 2%. If the lender had just been setting a fixed rate mortgage for the entire life of the loan, they perhaps would have need to set 7% or 8%. Instead they set it at 2% for the first three years. Then after the third year, the rate is set to adjust and it will adjust relative to a short term reference rate. Let’s say the LIBOR rate plus 4%. Some very large amount, or 5%. Something that really will seem to be not payable by the person who is taking out the loan. So in that respect it seems like, you’re just setting this person up to fail. In a few years, their loan, when the rate adjusts, they’re not gonna be able to pay it. So instead their only option at that point, will be to try to refinance the loan.

53
Q

What will the refinancing oxxur in ?

A

a penalty.

54
Q

Why do nsubprime morgages seem doomed to fail?

A

Now, this again, might seem like, how can they possibly do this? Effectively what you’re doing is, your saying, either they’re going to have to pay what might seem like an exorbitant interest rate after three years, when the loan starts adjusting, or they’re gonna refinance and have to pay you a penalty.

55
Q

Under whih circumstances can subprime morgages work?

A

0:04
Since sub-prime mortgages are such an important part of
Now, this again, might seem like, how can they possibly do this? Effectively what you’re doing is, your saying, either they’re going to have to pay what might seem like an exorbitant interest rate after three years, when the loan starts adjusting, or they’re gonna refinance and have to pay you a penalty. Seems somehow like, this doesn’t seem quite right. When would it be right?
3:49
Seems like it’s designed to fail, but under what conditions could it actually work?
3:55
It can work under the conditions that everybody expects housing prices to rise. And this is a complication or maybe even a nuance that I think is under appreciated by people who look at sub-prime mortgages.

56
Q

What becomes clear in this example?

A

And in fact, a big part of understanding what happens in a financial crisis, is people thinking that certain asset prices will continue to go up.

57
Q

What happens if zou cannot pay of your morgage?

A

Foreclosure

58
Q

What are the sand satates?

A

Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada.

59
Q

In whihc states is foreclosing more severe?

A

Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada. And in those four sand states, we see foreclosure being more severe.

60
Q

How many U.S households were in mortgage delibnquency in 2010

A

8.7%

61
Q

What is morgage delinquency?

A

Which means mortgages are 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure. So that’s gonna be a mortgage delinquency. And by 2010, really the peak of the crisis in 2009, we’re at 8.7% overall in the United States.

62
Q

What is an interesting things abour the morgage delinquency of the sand states before 2007?

A

they were below national avergae.

63
Q

What types of loans had elevated foreclosure rates?

A

As it was for geography, all types of loans had elevated foreclosure rates. But the worst were the highest rates for sub-prime loans and for adjustable rate mortgages.

64
Q

Which loan had the highest foreclosure rate?

A

The highest of course is sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages.

65
Q

When did the highest foreclosure rate peak?

A

Which peaked at greater than 40% in serious delinquency or foreclosure by 2009.

66
Q

What is the ssecod unsafe form

A

Now note interestingly that that delinquency rate was below that for the next group which is sub-prime fixed rate mortgages which peaked just over 20% in 2009 but as of 2005 was actually a slightly higher rate than we would see for these sub prime adjustable rates.

67
Q

What was fooling people about adjusted rates?

A

That interest rates were very low.

68
Q

What were the delinquency rates for prime adjusted and prime fixed?

A

Prime adjustable rate and prime fixed rate had effectively zero delinquency rates until 2007.

69
Q

What was the deliwqency rate of prime fixed in 2009?

A

the prime fixed rate grew to have approximately a 5% delinquency rate by 2009.

70
Q

Was the housiung crisis a driuver of the financial crisis?

A

Yes, it definitely was.

71
Q

Are housing crisis and financial crisis the same thing?

A

NO definitey not

72
Q

Are housing crises and financial crises the same thing?

A

No, they are not.