Week 2 Flashcards
What is the availability heuristic?
Judging the probability of an event by the ease of recruiting an example of an event
What is the vividness bias?
People tend to overestimate the probability of an event that is more vivid in your mind. (e.i. car accidents to stomach cancer
What is the recency effect?
This means people remember the most recent effect because it’s more vivid than later events
What is the primacy effect?
If time elapses, you’ll want to go first.
What is the the representativeness heuristic?
used as a shortcut to make a judgement about the probability of an event under UNCERTAINTY.
Why should you understand people’s insensitivity to the regression-to-the-mean phenomenon?
If an extreme event occurs, the next event is likely to regress toward the mean.
What does it mean to have insensitivity to base rates?
Sometimes people make errors in judgement by using representative heuristics and ignoring the base rate. Don’t forget to ground your judgement in the base rate.
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
People should be aware that they will have their judgements influenced by something irrelevant. To correct for this, make a mental adjustment.
(i.e. asking someone’s last 4 digits of their phone number and then asking how long is the Nile?
What is disjunctive vs. conjunctive event bias?
Conjunctive Event Bias: As the number of conjoined events increases, the probability of succeeding at all of these events decreases. The probability of achieving success for each event independently may be 75% but the probability of succeeding at all of them will be less. This results in overoptimistic estimates of success.
Disjunctive Event Bias: The underestimating of potential for error or malfunction in a system of components based solely on what someone observes from one small part of the whole.
What is the evaluability heuristic?
Short-cuts that lead to evalubility biases
What is the evaluability heuristic as it relates to singular case versus multiple statistics?
It’s hard to evaluate a statistic in isolation. It’s easier to compare multiple stats side-by-side
What does it mean to do joint evaluation vs. separate evaluation?
Separate evaluation = People evaluate events singularly
Joint evaluation = People can evaluate both versions. It’s often better to valuate things jointly.
What does it mean when a heuristic is easy-to-evaluate vs. difficult-to-evaluate attributes?
If we understand which attributes matter mosts, events are easier to evaluate
