Week 1 Flashcards

Question

Five Trends, which may transform the world -> Japan

Answer 1

* one counry which could make the global recession much worse * third largest economy, biggest creditor country -> potenital to effect the worlds financial markets * Japan's central bank has keeping the intrest rates low thanks to low inflation * as interest rates have riven elsewhere in the world Japan has found itself exposed by the widening gap * Jen is less attracitve for investors, lower interest rates, lower return * Jen has fallen against the dollar, making imports more expensive for Japan, which pushed up the rates of inflation * low (0.25%) interest rates, 10 years bond, the yield on this bond is crucial in Japan, it effects a lot of economic activity, by keeping this interests rate low stimulate the economy -> * End of 2022: the bank of Japan increased the cap to 0.5% -> distabilized the market * In 2023 the bank might go even further * If the interest rates in Japan climb the same way as in other countries it would be much more concerning because Japan has the highest level of public debt of any rich country -> if interest rates climb up, Japan might would not be able to service its debt and start to sell bonds causing bond yields to go up

Answer 2

* recygling/repaired/reduce clothes (fashion brands) * resell * eco-friendly fashion * circular economy -> 23% of the global fashion industry * risk: greenwashing of companies

Answer 3

* 2023 Charles was crowned * He wants queen camillato wore the crown that his grandmother wore at her coronation * Kohinoor diamond which was taken from India in 1849 * For Indians it would be a massive diplomatic grenade * repatriation of aritfacats of other countries, the people in the colonazied countries should see their art in their own country * return artifacts to India -> New Delhi museum and Nigeria * restitution = die Rückgabe

Answer 4

**Artifical Intelligence** * is leading to dicplacement of routine jobs, then of more cognitive jobs, but know with ChatGPT even some creative job can be replaced * increase income and wealth inequality because this industry is capital intensive, buyers and labour saving, low/ medium value added -> than you have to worry to be replaced * Gepolitical issue -> two power US/China, AI race, dominate all the industry of the future, but also the military, security power * Europe has to ally with the US -> same politcal/economical/gepolitical system

Answer 5

Geopolitical * relationship US, China -> Taiwan * miscalculation risk is high * reshoring, friend-shoring Control * conflict is unlikely, but trade/technology war * competition in military technology * spillover risk Operational * energy system, not only survive short term shocks -> renewable energy Cyber * agility, security, resilience * emerging breakdown of global digital network * weaponisation, clash of national interest, network resilient Regulatory * Turbulance felt around the world as government react to worsening economic conditions and increasing fiscal fragility * corporate sector will feel the heat * goverment interventions

Answer 6

1. Cyber incidents ransomware attacks. data beaches rank / everything connected, everythins is controlled by software 2. Business interruption geopolitcal, economic risk, long-term transformation 3. Macroeconomic developments high inflation, efforts by the central banks, energy crisis -> cost-of-living 4. Energy crisis spiraling fuel costs, supply disruptions, effects Russa's invasion 5. Changes in legslation and regualtion growing corporate reporting, compliance, ESG 6. Natural catastrophes Hurricane, storms 7. Climate change adoping carbon reducing business models 8. shortage of skilled workforce retaining skilled workers, talent shortage 9. Fire, explosion wildfires -> insurance loss, usually technical, but also explosion beirut 10. Political risk and violence Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cost-of-living crisis, strike, terrorism law, administrative work

Answer 7

* Europe / Eurozone; energy crisis, high debt ratios, inflation, high public/ private debt * try to dampen the impact of the rise of energy prices -> transfer money to those who are negatively affected, renewable energy, help the private sector

Answer 8

**Pandemic** * Global pandemics become more recurrent and more severe, it has to do with global climate change, we destroy the ecosystem of animals, we ecorach on them then those anmials that have pathogens are closer to humanbeings -> zoonotic transmission * Permafrost in Siberia is defrosting and going to realse tons of methane and methane as 10 times geenhouse gas emissions than CO2 and then actually bacteria and virus haben been forzen in the permafrost > freakier pandemic

Answer 9

**Every trend is global** * Global security -> great powers (China, Russia, Europe, USA) -> prevents the cooperation on the key global issues * China is a rising power, referred to revision is power that togehter with allies challenges the economic social, political, trading, financial, monetary, geopolitcal order that the US, Europe creadted after WW2

Answer 10

**China** * Xi Jinping: become more authoritarian and state capitalism, state on banks/entreprises, government invest in infrastructure, geopolitical flexing their muscle, tensions, terretorial issue * economic model is fragile: too much real estate, too much fixed investment, and credit fuel, the infrastructure spending, not enough domestic consumpition * potential growth will be only 2-3% in the future * before Xi Jinping more freedom, more liberalization * China investements in Europe due to geopolitical reasons * German is too dependent on China