W5 - Cognitive biases Flashcards
thinking that I’ve gotten bad luck so after bad luck it must be time for good luck
Gambler’s fallacy
A situation in which the incentives of agents and principals are not aligned and agents act in part or in whole on their own incentives.
Agent cost
Tendency to accept information that confirms initial hypothesis regardless of the quality of the data or of the subjectivity of the view.
Confirmation bias
People of different opinions exposed to the same information push their view even more to their respective extreme.
Attitude polarisation
Beliefs continue even after evidence shows they are ill-founded
Belief Perseverance
Tackle with counterfactual thinking –> asking the odds of not getting what they want
Tendency to underestimate how long something will take, its risk and its associated costs and overestimate benefits being pessimistic of estimating tasks of others.
Planning fallacy
Tendency to be more risk seeking when when gambling with money that is not yours.
House money effect
Tendency to internalise success (my achievement) and externalise failure (blame it on others)
Self-serving bias
If you know the outcome of an event, it is difficult to empathise with another’s reasoning to that event.
The curse of knowledge
Thinking outcomes are more improbable before they occur, and overestimate the likelihood of their occurrence after they occur
Hindsight bias