Voting behaviour and the role of the media Flashcards
Where do the conservatives typically win?
The Conservatives have continued to do well in areas that are predominantly white, rural or suburban and socially conservative.
Since 2005, where have labour supported
Since 2005, Labour Party support has contracted to industrial urban areas in south Wales, the industrial north and London.
Voting preferences in scotland
Left wing, traditionally Labour, but SNP in 2015
Reasons for Scotlands voting preference
- Opposition to London-centred policies and New Right policies
- Specific social and economic problems in Scotland
- The impact of devolution
Voting preferences in Wales
A Labour bias, but fairly evenly split across the region
Reasons for Wales voting preference
- Industrial areas favour Labour
- Rural areas vote Conservative or Liberal Democrat
- The far west is more likely to vote nationalist
Voting preferences in Northern Ireland
Has its own party system, with a split between unionist and nationalist parties
Reasons for Northern Ireland’s voting preferences
The party votes reflect religious and cultural divisions in the region
Voring preferences in London
Majority Labour
Reasons for London’s voting preferences
- Increasing ethnic diversity
- Greater economic disparity across the city
- Reliance on public services
- More socially liberal than other regions
Voting preferences in Rural England
Overwhelmingly Conservative
Reasons for Rural England’s voting preferences
- Mostly white
- Economically conservative
- Socially conservative
Voting Preferences in the Industrial North of England
Mostly Labour
Reasons for the Industrial north of England voting preferences
- Higher levels of unemployment than elsewhere in the country
- Greater rates of poverty and urban decay
- Greater ethnic diversity
voting preferences in the home counties
Predominantly Conservative
Reasons for the voting preferences of the home counties
- London commuter belt, made up of C1, B and A classes
- Mostly white
- More conservative than London
- Economically prosperous
Urban areas now vs 1800s
Urban areas are now increasingly Labour strongholds and less inclined to vote Conservative, compared to the period before the 1980s.
Traditional british society
- upper class — landowners (the nobility)
- middle class — property owners
- working class — labourers
Class A
Higher managerial and professional workers, such as business owners and judges
Class B
Middle managers and professionals, such as store managers, teachers and lawyers
Class C1
Clerical workers, such as office clerks and secretaries
Class C2
Skilled manual workers, such as builders, electricians and plumbers
Class D
Semi-skilled and unskilled workers, such as day labourers and factory workers
Class E
The unemployed, pensioners and those unable to work
1980s - Class
Until the 1980s, class often determined how a person would vote. This is known as class voting. Classes A, B and C1 would usually be described as middle class and tended to vote Conservative. Classes C2, D and, to a large extent, E would be described as working class and tended to vote Labour.
what class voting meant for parties
This meant each party had a set of core voters from a distinct social class, reflecting the fact that economic factors, such as employment and inflation, were the top concern of many people. As a result, the two main parties presented a clear, class-based choice to the electorate. This explains why, in 1970, 88% of all votes went to the two main parties.
Changing attitudes
Since the 1970s, economic reforms and changing attitudes in society have resulted in a decline in the importance of economic issues and greater concern about social issues, including:
- immigration
- civil and human rights
- crime
- welfare provision
- attitudes to sex and sexuality
- Britain’s position in the world
Class dealignment
Where people no longer vote according to their social class.
Class voting
The idea that people will vote for a party based on the economic interests of their class.
Core voter
Any group of voters who will loyally vote for a party, regardless of any personal issues.
Swing voters
Voters who are not loyal to a party and are therefore open to persuasion.
Partisan dealignment
The idea that people are less committed or loyal to one particular party.
Social class
A way of categorising people based on their status in society, usually by occupation or income.
What has changing attitudes led to
Many of these issues have an economic dimension but they tend to be considered from an emotional and social point of view. As they cross the class-based divisions, they have resulted in class dealignment which has seen people less likely to vote according to their class.
What has the wider range of issues led to
This widening of the issues considered important by the electorate has also led to partisan dealignment, with voters less likely to be loyal to one party and taking into consideration multiple issues before casting their vote. This in turn has led to an increase in floating (swing) voters.
Weakening of the class system and it’s impact on the parties
The weakening of the class system across the UK has seen the emergence of a more diverse set of political struggles between the parties, particularly at election time. While elections from 1945 to 1992 were more or less a straight contest between Labour and the Conservatives, by 2015 the contest involved at least six key parties, all dealing with issues that crossed class lines.
Results of 2015 general election
- AB and C1 are heavily Conservative and are the most likely to vote.
- DE is the largest group and most pro-Labour, but is the least likely to vote
- C2 and DE, the two most pro-Labour groups, saw the highest percentage swing to support UKIP.
Left voters in 2015
The answer lies in the rise of the ‘left behind’ voters. These traditionally working-class voters would have voted for Labour in the past, but cultural concerns over immigration and income inequality, as well as a perception that politics is dominated by a socially liberal, educated and urban elite, have alienated them from the Labour Party. Instead, they have gravitated towards UKIP, which reflects their concerns. This reveals partisan dealignment and the fact that Labour cannot rely on class as a means of getting votes.
Left behind voters
This is a term used to identify a group of voters who feel left behind by the social and economic reforms that have occurred in the UK over the past 50 years and who believe that their lives and the country have changed for the worse. They tend to be economically left-wing but culturally right-wing.
Does the class system still matter in UK politics?
YES
- Issues of tax and benefits remain a key distinction between the two main parties.
- Many voters do still identify with a party based on their perceived class.
- Geographic voting trends still reflect the relative wealth and class make-up of a region or constituency.
- Class inequality and a lack of social mobility remain major concerns for many voters.
Does the class system still matter in UK politics?
NO
- Major issues, such as immigration, cross class divisions.
- The size and role of the working class has declined by more than a half, making it less of a political presence.
- Increasing property ownership and improved
education make it more difficult to categorise classes. - Successful parties have to appeal across a wide range of issues, not just those relating to class.
Attempts to appeal to women in general elections
- In 2015, Labour’s Woman to Woman pink minibus visited 75 constituencies, targeting women who did not vote in the previous
election. - In 2014, David Cameron declared that Britain would ‘lead the change on women’s equality’.
- In 2014, Jo Swanson launched the Liberal Democrats’ campaign to push for equal pay and increased childcare provision.
- In 2010, David Cameron worked to increase the number of female Conservative MPs.
- In 1997, Tony Blair introduced all-women shortlists to increase the number of women in parliament.
Traditional gender votes
Traditionally, women are believed to favour the Conservatives, with Labour only winning a larger share of the female vote under Tony Blair. In 1970, Ted Heath’s Conservatives won a surprise victory over Harold Wilson’s Labour Party. It was believed that the ‘housewives’ had swung the election for Heath. His promise of economic stability, protection for the price of the weekly shop and a stable society were believed to have appealed to mothers with family concerns, from all classes.
Did gender make a difference in the 2015 general election
No
On most issues, there is little difference in opinion between men and women. The exceptions to this are:
- foreign intervention (war)
- nuclear power
- nuclear weapons
What issues do women prioritise compared to men
Women also tend to prioritise health and education, whereas men tend to prioritise foreign affairs and taxation.
Age plays two significant roles in the way UK voters cast their votes:
- Younger voters lean left, while older voters lean right.
- The older the voter, the more likely they are to vote.
Table 11.5 shows that the percentage of Conservative and UKIP voters increases with age, while the percentage of Labour and Green Party voters drops with age. In theory, this should balance out, but the parties of the left have two disadvantages:
- The younger the voter, the less likely they are to vote.
- Britain’s ageing population means the elderly population is growing as a percentage of the total population.
Why do Labour do worse than expected
This means there are more older people and they are more likely to vote. Social platforms and online polling tend to focus on the young, which distorts the reality of what happens in the polling stations and might explain why the Labour Party often does worse than expected while the Conservative Party quite often does better.
How have parties changed to the significance of ages
A substantial increase in university fees will hit
the young, who do not vote, but promising to protect or even increase pensions will please the elderly, who do vote. Pension reforms, the NHS, law and order and limited social reform are areas of particular concern to the elderly and these are the areas the parties tend to focus on in their manifestos and campaigns. Issues about housing for the young, youth unemployment, university fees and reform of drug laws are given far less priority because the people whom these issues appeal to are not likely to vote — a lesson Ed Miliband learned in the 2015 election.
Ethicity
As with age, race seems to point to a clear partisan divide in the UK, with white voters leaning more to the right and ethnic minority voters leaning more to the left.
Why do ethnic minorities tend to favour Labour
- The legacy of anti-minority campaigning by the Conservative Party, such
as Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech (1968), where he criticised the Labour government’s immigration and anti-discrimination legislation, and Norman Tebbit’s ‘Cricket test’ (1990), where he criticised South Asian and Caribbean immigrants for their lack of loyalty to the England cricket team. - The concentration of many ethnic minority groups into industrial urban centres, such as London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Bradford.
What is the ehite population in the UK?
82%
Social Capital
The theory that politics requires cultural and moral resources to engage the people and make them feel part of society. As such, citizens have certain responsibilities and duties to make society work effectively.
Theory about the decline in voter turnout
- A decline in social capital means that people are less inclined to feel they are part of society.
- Declining standards in education mean people are less aware of their civic responsibilities.
- The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system alienates the electorate because the number of seats won does not accurately reflect the number of votes received by a party.
- Partisan dealignment means people are less motivated to vote.
- An increase in ethnic minority citizens, who are less likely to vote, might explain a decline in turnout.
- Since the resignation of Thatcher in 1990, the Conservative and Labour parties have reached a consensus on several key issues. This post-Thatcher consensus has meant there is less real choice between the main parties.
- The growth in issues and parties has made elections less clear cut and more difficult to understand.
- Sleaze and a negative culture spread by the media have turned people away from politics.
Reasons why the theory is not convinving
- There has been a growth in rights culture and media engagement.
- Citizenship lessons mean citizens are better educated than ever before.
- An alternative voting system was rejected in a referendum vote in 2011 and turnout is even lower in UK elections which use other voting systems.
- Party loyalty may have declined but people still engage through pressure groups and campaigns, yet they do not vote in elections.
- There has been an increase in the number of ethnic minorities in the UK but the increase began as far back as the 1950s and does not explain the scale of the fall in turnout since 1992.
- The Labour Party moved further left under Gordon Brown and then Ed Miliband, making more of a clear distinction between the two main parties.
- People tend to cast their vote on the one or two issues that mean the most to them, so the fact that there are more issues is not relevant.
- Scandals and sleaze have both existed in politics for many years. Turnout was not damaged by the scandal of the Profumo affair in the 1960s and was still at 71.4% in 1997, after 5 years of sleaze reporting.
Are politicians to blame for declining turnout? YES
- They have failed to inspire the public.
- Scandals and corruption have turned people away from politics.
- Negative campaigning and adversarial politics have alienated many people
Are politicians to blame for declining turnout? NO
- If the public are not happy with what is on offer, they need to make their voices heard, not stay silent.
- The media are responsible for undermining respect for politics in the UK.
- Low turnout reflects social and generational changes that politicians can do little about.
Labour’s voting problem
The D and E social classes, young voters and ethnic minorities tend to vote in favour of Labour by substantial margins. However, these groups are the smallest and least likely to vote. Having lost its formerly dominant position in Scotland, as well as hundreds of thousands of votes across England and Wales to UKIP, the party needs to find a way to increase support from other groups without losing the support it currently holds.
three key theories which explain how individuals make their electoral choices:
- rational choice theory
- issue voting
- economic or valence issues
Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory assumes that voters will make a rational, or logical, judgement based on what is in their own best interests. In an ideal version, voters will be fully informed about the various options and will choose the option that is best for them. By aggregating these views, the winning verdict will reflect what is best for society as a whole. The assumption here is that a voter will conduct a cost/benefit analysis of all options and make their choice accordingly.
