Voting Behaviour and the Media STATS Flashcards
How much did Labour and Conservative win of each class in 1964
Wilson (L) won 64% of DE voters
Douglas-Home (C) won 75% of AB voters.
Winter of discontent stat
1978–79
Under Jim Callaghan (L)
There was an 11% swing to Tories from Labour of C2 voters.
2019 stat for C2/DE voters
Tories won 48% of C2/DE voters
Labour only won 33%
Massive indication of class dealignment
What are some stats from the 2017 GE that show the issue of regional voting?
London - 55% (Labour) and 33% (Tories)
Southern England - 29% (Labour) and 54% (Tories)
In the 2019 GE, how did the Tories do with the higher social grades compared to the lower ones?
A survey by YouGov found that the Conservatives won 48% of voters in the lower C2DE social grade as opposed to 43% in the higher ABC1
Ethnicity voting with stat
Evidence suggests that ethnic minority groups are most likely to vote Labour.
60%-70% of BAME voted Labour in the last 4 elections.
This is often also an overlap with class as well.
What is a voting stat from 2017 that shows how ethnicity can affect voting?
2017 - East Ham results, 77% BAME
83.2% Labour
12.8% conservative
This is most likely because the conservative’s opinion on immigration as well as a link with class and lower income families.
Age statistic from 2017 election
Young voters are far more likely to vote Labour
43% of 18-24 - Labour
23% of 65+ - Labour
Gender and voting
Women throughout history were far more likely to vote conservative because they didnt work and were concerned more with household prices.
Considering this the fact that women now equally vote CON and LAB and young women are considerably more likely to vote Labour shows a swing. - 2019 election 65% 18-24 women voted for LAB, compared to 46% of 18-24 Men
This might be because 86% of Tory Austerity is estimated to have come from women’s pockets.
Statistic from the 2017 GE that shows how well the Conservatives do in ethnically diverse places
They only won 5/75 of the most ethnically diverse constituencies
Education and voting
- Traditionally those with a higher education go on to earn more money and therefore were more likely to vote Tory
- But we have seen a drastic change now in the 21st century where higher degree = more likely to vote labour
- Education still a key dividing line
- 2019 Degree or higher LAB 43% / CON 29%
- 2019 GCSE or below LAB 25% / CON 58%
Case Study: 1979 Election
Turnout
- Turnout was 76% which normally would have helped Labour but it didnt this time.
- Before the election the tory poll lead narrowed which likely helped them as their voters were encouraged to turn out.
Case Study: 1979 Election
Final results
- Conservatives won a 43 seat majority
- With a swing to CON of 5.2%, largest since 1945
- 15% swing in working class voters - class dealignment
- 20% more young women voters supported CON.
Case Study: 1997 Election
Final results in % and majority
- Labour - 43% and 179 seat majority
- Tories - 30.7% vote
- Lowest share of the Vote for Con since 1832.
- Labour won a 14% swing in the middle class group since 1992.
Case Study: 1997 Election
Age voting
- Labour achieved more votes across all age groups than the conservative party.
- Highest percentage coming from 18-24s.
- Especially in 18-24 women with 53% of them supporting Labour and only 24% tories, big for the time
- Conservatives lost 16 points in the 35-54 age group, their largest loss. (economy concerned)
Case Study: 1997 Election
Ethnicity voting
- 70% of all non white voters voted for labour
- 18% voted for conservatives
- Labour gained 66% of Asian Votes and 82% of Black votes.
Case Study: 1997 Election
Employment Status
- 45% of those in employment voted for Labour
- As did 64% of unemployed people.
Case Study: 2017 Election
Final results and trends
- Resulted in a Minority Gov and Con had to form Confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.
- While Labour achieved a 9.6% swing, but Conservatives still increased their vote share by 5.5% (biggest % of pop vote since 1983)
- Labour won in the places that voted remain while Conservatives won in leave areas.
Case Study: 2017 Election
Age and education
- High youth turnout. 24% increase in Labour votes in 18-24
- Among those with GCSEs or less the tories beat labour by 22% and in those with High qualifications Labour led by 17%
What was the results of the 2019 GE?
- CON gain 47 seats, LAB lose 69
- CON majority of 80
- LAB worst result since 1935
What does the 2019 election suggest about age in voting?
- According to analysis by YouGov, age was the most important determinant of voting. 56 per cent of those in the 18-to-24 age bracket voted Labour, compared to only 14 per cent of those aged 70 and over.
- For every ten years older a voter was, the chance of them voting Conservative increased by nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreased by eight points.
- Overall the voting patterns of men and women were very similar, except in the 18-to-24 group, where 28 per cent of men but only 15 per cent of women voted Conservative.
What does the 2019 election suggest about class in voting?
What is the clearer dividing line?
- The declining importance of class, already witnessed in 2017, was evident in 2019.
- Labour scored 33 per cent in both the ABC1 classes (middle-class ‘white collar’ occupations) and C2DEs (working-class ‘blue collar’ occupations).
- The Conservatives were ahead of Labour in all classes but scored more highly among C2DEs (48 per cent) than among ABC1s (43 per cent).
- Levels of education were a clearer dividing line than social class. The Conservatives outperformed Labour by 58 to 25 per cent among voters with the lowest level of educational qualification (GCSE or below) but amongst those with a university degree they trailed Labour by 29 to 43 per cent.
What does the 2019 election suggest about issue and valence voting?
- Brexit was a salient issue in the 2019 election - The Conservatives were supported by 74 per cent of Leave voters but only 19 per cent of Remain voters.
- This links to a theme which has been increasingly central in modern elections: voters’ perceptions of the various parties’ governing competence.
