Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Definition of class
Levels of status in society based on wealth, culture and social status.
Class de-alignment
The fact that voting is becoming less linked to class recently
Social mobility
the ability to come from a lower class and still get a high income job and change class
Cleavage
A historically determined social or cultural line which divides citizens into groups with differing political interests, resulting in political conflict among these groups.
Bloc
a group of voters that are strongly motivated by a specific common concern or group of concerns to the point that such specific concerns tend to dominate their voting patterns, causing them to vote together in elections
Bottom Up
Characteristics of classes are becoming more overlapped and less clear cut and the classes are merging slightly
Top down
The working class has become smaller and therefore the parties have become more centrist to try and appeal to a wider range of people and when parties do this the classes become less clear cut.
Valence factors/ Competence voting
Deciding who to vote for based on judgement of the current gov and their competence
How are social grades decided?
How much did Labour and Conservative win of each class in 1964
Wilson (L) won 64% of DE voters
Douglas-Home (C) won 75% of AB voters.
Winter of discontent stat
1978–79
Under Jim Callaghan (L)
There was an 11% swing to Tories from Labour of C2 voters.
2019 stat for C2/DE voters
Tories won 48% of C2/DE voters
Labour only won 33%
Massive indication of class dealignment
Partisan Dealignment
Not voting traditionally with one strict party but judging the government competence and the valence factors
(how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with the policies of the government.)
What is valence voting?
- Valence is the idea that people support a party best able to deliver on issues they care about.
- Valence is not only concerned with prospective policies but how much they trust a party or leader.
Eg many voters liked Labour’s policies such as abolishing tuition fees and funding the NHS but questioned whether they could actually deliver it alongside economic prosperity.
Salient issues
- Divisive issues considered to be extremely important at the time of the election.
- e.g Brexit or economic crisis.
Spatial issues
- Issue voting.
- Stresses the importance of positional issues.
- Parties prioritise certain things based on their position and it tends to divide voters.
- Eg. NHS funding or immigration.
Valence issues
- Issues everyone has a universal agreement on.
- e.g. lower crime rate, strong economy
- The issue is how we get there
Rational choice voting
- Voting influenced by short term, self interested policies and voting accordingly.
- Voters consider how the government will affect them and their families
- Combines issue voting and valence (trust)
Issue voting
- Voters must be aware of the issue
- they must have an opinion on the issue
- the must detect a difference between the parties on the issue
- They must convert this into a party preference.
It relies on high level of political engagement to explain voting trends which is why it makes voting diffiult to explain.
Regional voting
Where is an example of this?
Closely associated with class, with parties having electoral heartlands and electoral deserts.
The south east is the most prosperous region in the UK with high levels of home ownership and low levels of heavy industrial trade with unionism. The conservatives do very well here especially as it lacks racial diversity.
What are some stats from the 2017 GE that show the issue of regional voting?
London - 55% (Labour) and 33% (Tories)
Southern England - 29% (Labour) and 54% (Tories)
In the 2019 GE, how did the Tories do with the higher social grades compared to the lower ones?
A survey by YouGov found that the Conservatives won 48% of voters in the lower C2DE social grade as opposed to 43% in the higher ABC1
When did the huge change in class dealignment happen?
- When Tony Blair was elected in 1997
- The election saw a huge 10.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
Exit poll data:
C2s - 50% (L) and 27% (C)
DEs- 59% (L) and 21% (C)
Link between partisan alignment and class dealignment
When people identify strongly with a class they normally identify strongly with a party.
Ethnicity voting with stat
Evidence suggests that ethnic minority groups are most likely to vote Labour.
60%-70% of BAME voted Labour in the last 4 elections.
This is often also an overlap with class as well.
What is a voting stat from 2017 that shows how ethnicity can affect voting?
2017 - East Ham results, 77% BAME
83.2% Labour
12.8% conservative
This is most likely because the conservative’s opinion on immigration as well as a link with class and lower income families.
Age statistic from 2017 election
Young voters are far more likely to vote Labour
43% of 18-24 - Labour
23% of 65+ - Labour
Gender and voting
Women throughout history were far more likely to vote conservative because they didnt work and were concerned more with household prices.
Considering this the fact that women now equally vote CON and LAB and young women are considerably more likely to vote Labour shows a swing. - 2019 election 65% 18-24 women voted for LAB, compared to 46% of 18-24 Men
This might be because 86% of Tory Austerity is estimated to have come from women’s pockets.
Party leader and voting
- The party leader’s personality or charisma can have a big affect on the party’s succesess.
- Eg - 1983 Thatcher seen as strong and formidable whereas Foot’s intelligence didnt appeal to Labour’s core voters.
- Blair young energetic family man contrast to Major.
- Eg. May was disliked, Corbyn wasnt trusted - 35% of 2017 LAB voters that abandoned in 2019 said it was because of Corbyn
- Televised debates and interviews are when this begins to become apparent.
Governing competency
An assement of how effective a party has been in government.
Control of Events: Callaghan could not control the Winter of discontent strikes and was misquoted saying “Crisis, what crisis?” - Lost 1979 election
Policy: Thatcher’s gov stuck to their promise of changing the economic model and were rewarded with electoral success.
Party Unity, Strong leadership: Blair’s Labour shows voters rewarding a party who had a clear vision and united party.
Economic management
Widely accepted that the economy is one of the most salient voting motivators
Voters are much more likely to support if a party has handled the economy well and vice versa.
Eg 1978 ‘Winter of Discontent’ played a key role in Thatcher’s 1979 victory.
in 2010 the tories were able to blame Brown’s Labour for the 2008 financial crisis.
16% of 2017 LAB that left in 2019 was due to mistrust on economic competence
Statistic from the 2017 GE that shows how well the Conservatives do in ethnically diverse places
They only won 5/75 of the most ethnically diverse constituencies
Education and voting
- Traditionally those with a higher education go on to earn more money and therefore were more likely to vote Tory
- But we have seen a drastic change now in the 21st century where higher degree = more likely to vote labour
- Education still a key dividing line
- 2019 Degree or higher LAB 43% / CON 29%
- 2019 GCSE or below LAB 25% / CON 58%
Case Study: 1979 Election
What was the background of the then-Labour government in the years leading up to 1979?
- Labour (Harold Wilson) won the 1974 GE and Callaghan succeeded Wilson as Leader in 1976.
1975 - Callaghan had been responsible as Foreign Secretary for the re-negotiation of membership in the European Communities. - In the 1974 GE they only won a small majority and when Callaghan came in they had no majority at all.
- Callaghan was forced to strike a confidence supply agreement with the Lib dems, the “Lib-Lab Pact”
Case Study: 1979 Election
What was the immediate background to the election?
- Lib-Lab pact only lasted til August 1978
- The Winter of Discontent began when the gov gave tanker drivers a 14% raise but everyone else was capped at 5%, leading to mass strikes.
- Devolution referendum was held and Scot voted yes but the lack of majority meant the decision couldnt be implemented.
- Labour lost more by-elections, the _SNP withdrew suppor_t and a _vote of no confidence happened._
