Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
1
Q
Definition of class
A
Levels of status in society based on wealth, culture and social status.
2
Q
Class de-alignment
A
The fact that voting is becoming less linked to class recently
3
Q
Social mobility
A
the ability to come from a lower class and still get a high income job and change class
4
Q
Cleavage
A
A historically determined social or cultural line which divides citizens into groups with differing political interests, resulting in political conflict among these groups.
5
Q
Bloc
A
a group of voters that are strongly motivated by a specific common concern or group of concerns to the point that such specific concerns tend to dominate their voting patterns, causing them to vote together in elections
6
Q
Bottom Up
A
Characteristics of classes are becoming more overlapped and less clear cut and the classes are merging slightly
7
Q
Top down
A
The working class has become smaller and therefore the parties have become more centrist to try and appeal to a wider range of people and when parties do this the classes become less clear cut.
8
Q
Valence factors/ Competence voting
A
Deciding who to vote for based on judgement of the current gov and their competence
9
Q
How are social grades decided?
A
10
Q
How much did Labour and Conservative win of each class in 1964
A
Wilson (L) won 64% of DE voters
Douglas-Home (C) won 75% of AB voters.
11
Q
Winter of discontent stat
1978–79
Under Jim Callaghan (L)
A
There was an 11% swing to Tories from Labour of C2 voters.
12
Q
2019 stat for C2/DE voters
A
Tories won 48% of C2/DE voters
Labour only won 33%
Massive indication of class dealignment
13
Q
Partisan Dealignment
A
Not voting traditionally with one strict party but judging the government competence and the valence factors
(how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with the policies of the government.)
14
Q
What is valence voting?
A
- Valence is the idea that people support a party best able to deliver on issues they care about.
- Valence is not only concerned with prospective policies but how much they trust a party or leader.
Eg many voters liked Labour’s policies such as abolishing tuition fees and funding the NHS but questioned whether they could actually deliver it alongside economic prosperity.
15
Q
Salient issues
A
- Divisive issues considered to be extremely important at the time of the election.
- e.g Brexit or economic crisis.
16
Q
Spatial issues
A
- Issue voting.
- Stresses the importance of positional issues.
- Parties prioritise certain things based on their position and it tends to divide voters.
- Eg. NHS funding or immigration.
17
Q
Valence issues
A
- Issues everyone has a universal agreement on.
- e.g. lower crime rate, strong economy
- The issue is how we get there
18
Q
Rational choice voting
A
- Voting influenced by short term, self interested policies and voting accordingly.
- Voters consider how the government will affect them and their families
- Combines issue voting and valence (trust)
19
Q
Issue voting
A
- Voters must be aware of the issue
- they must have an opinion on the issue
- the must detect a difference between the parties on the issue
- They must convert this into a party preference.
It relies on high level of political engagement to explain voting trends which is why it makes voting diffiult to explain.
20
Q
Regional voting
Where is an example of this?
A
Closely associated with class, with parties having electoral heartlands and electoral deserts.
The south east is the most prosperous region in the UK with high levels of home ownership and low levels of heavy industrial trade with unionism. The conservatives do very well here especially as it lacks racial diversity.
21
Q
What are some stats from the 2017 GE that show the issue of regional voting?
A
London - 55% (Labour) and 33% (Tories)
Southern England - 29% (Labour) and 54% (Tories)
22
Q
In the 2019 GE, how did the Tories do with the higher social grades compared to the lower ones?
A
A survey by YouGov found that the Conservatives won 48% of voters in the lower C2DE social grade as opposed to 43% in the higher ABC1
23
Q
When did the huge change in class dealignment happen?
A
- When Tony Blair was elected in 1997
- The election saw a huge 10.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour
Exit poll data:
C2s - 50% (L) and 27% (C)
DEs- 59% (L) and 21% (C)
24
Q
Link between partisan alignment and class dealignment
A
When people identify strongly with a class they normally identify strongly with a party.
25
Ethnicity voting with stat
Evidence suggests that ethnic minority groups are most likely to vote Labour.
***60%-70%** of **BAME** voted **Labour** in the last **4 elections**.*
This is often also an overlap with class as well.
26
What is a voting stat from 2017 that shows how ethnicity can affect voting?
**2017** - **East Ham** results, 77% **BAME**
**83.2%** Labour
**12.8**% conservative
This is most likely because the conservative's opinion on immigration as well as a link with class and lower income families.
27
Age statistic from 2017 election
Young voters are far more likely to vote Labour
## Footnote
***43% of 18-24 - Labour***
***23% of 65+ - Labour***
28
Gender and voting
Women throughout history were far more likely to vote conservative because they didnt work and were concerned more with household prices.
Considering this the fact that women now equally vote CON and LAB and young women are considerably more likely to vote Labour shows a swing. - 2019 election 65% 18-24 women voted for LAB, compared to 46% of 18-24 Men
This might be because **86% of Tory Austerity** is estimated to have come from women's pockets.
29
Party leader and voting
* The party leader's **personality or charisma** can have a big affect on the party's succesess.
* Eg - 1983 ***Thatcher*** seen as strong and formidable whereas ***Foot's*** intelligence didnt appeal to Labour's core voters.
* ***Blair*** young energetic family man contrast to ***Major***.
* Eg. ***May*** was disliked, ***Corbyn*** wasnt trusted - 35% of 2017 LAB voters that abandoned in 2019 said it was because of Corbyn
* Televised debates and interviews are when this begins to become apparent.
30
Governing competency
An assement of how effective a party has been in government.
**Control of Events:** Callaghan could not control the Winter of discontent strikes and was misquoted saying *"Crisis, what crisis?" -* Lost 1979 election
**Policy:** Thatcher's gov stuck to their promise of changing the economic model and were rewarded with electoral success.
**Party Unity, Strong leadership:** Blair's Labour shows voters rewarding a party who had a clear vision and united party.
31
Economic management
Widely accepted that the economy is one of the most salient voting motivators
Voters are much more likely to support if a party has handled the economy well and vice versa.
Eg **1978** *'**Winter of Discontent'*** played a key role in **Thatcher's** **1979** victory.
in **2010** the tories were able to blame **Brown's Labour** for the **2008 *financial crisis.***
**16% of 2017 LAB that left in 2019 was due to mistrust on economic competence**
32
Statistic from the 2017 GE that shows how well the Conservatives do in ethnically diverse places
They only won **_5/75_** of the most ethnically diverse constituencies
33
Education and voting
* Traditionally those with a higher education go on to earn more money and therefore were more likely to vote Tory
* But we have seen a drastic change now in the 21st century where higher degree = more likely to vote labour
* Education still a key dividing line
* **2019** Degree or higher _LAB_ **43**% / _CON_ **29**%
* **2019** GCSE or below _LAB_ **25**% / _CON_ **58**%
34
Case Study: **1979** Election
What was the background of the then-Labour government in the years leading up to 1979?
* Labour (Harold Wilson) won the **1974** GE and **Callaghan** succeeded Wilson as **Leader** in **1976**.
1975 - Callaghan had been responsible as **Foreign Secretary** for the **re-negotiation** of membership in the **European Communities.**
* In the **1974** GE they only won a **small** **majority** and when Callaghan came in they had **_no majority at all._**
* Callaghan was forced to strike a confidence supply agreement with the Lib dems, the ***_"Lib-Lab Pact"_***
35
Case Study: **1979** Election
What was the immediate background to the election?
* **Lib-Lab** pact only lasted til August **1978**
* The **Winter of Discontent** began when the gov gave tanker drivers a _14_% raise but everyone else was capped at _5_%, leading to **_mass strikes._**
* **_Devolution_** referendum was held and Scot voted yes but the lack of majority meant the decision couldnt be implemented.
* Labour lost more by-elections, the **_SNP withdrew suppor**_t and a _**vote of no confidence happened._**
36
Case Study: **1979** Election
What happened witht the leadership and the campaign?
* Steel (Lib Dem) very charasmatic
* Callaghan actually more popular as a person than Thatcher but his competence wasnt trusted and people had little confidence
* "Crisis, what crisis?" made him look out of touch
* **The Conservatives were 10 points ahead in the polls at the beginning of the campaign.**
37
Case Study: **1979** Election
Thatcher campaign tactics
* Thatcher employed **Saatchi and Saatchi** advertising company to run a convincing campaign off *"Labour isnt working"*
* She participated in **voice coaching** to make her voice seem more appealing
* Used **photo opportunities** to command her public image, ), holding a calf, drinking tea in a factory (highlighting her **'house wife'** persona and getting women to vote for her - Wilson addmitted his wife was voting for her)
* Played her adverts when factories had lunch.
38
Case Study: **1979** election
Where did Thatcher launch her campaign and why is this important?
* Cardiff
* Very working class city
* Showed people that she wants to prioritise the working class etc
39
Case Study: **1979** Election
What were the 3 things Thatcher was called and why is this important?
1. ***"Iron Lady"*** - presents her as strong and capable
2. ***"Our Maiden"***
3. ***"Our Maggie"*** - likeable and docile, appeal to the housewife and women voters.
40
Case Study: **1979** Election
How was the economy doing?
* Inflation was at its peak in **1975**, at **24.9**%.
* A period of **stagflation** - high levels of government spending caused large inflation without any growth
41
Case Study: **1979** Election
Conservative v Labour manifesto
* *'The Labour way is the better way'* promised an increase in pensions and tax cuts.
* However, people believed the tories were the ones who were more likely to bring taxes down.
* *'The Conservative Manifesto'* promised to control inflation (which was really high) and keep unions pay claims in check (which people doubted labour could do.)
42
Case Study: **1979** Election
Turnout
* Turnout was **76%** which normally would have helped Labour but it didnt this time.
* Before the election the tory poll lead narrowed which likely helped them as their voters were encouraged to turn out.
43
Case Study: **1979** Election
Final results
* Conservatives won a **43** seat majority
* With a **swing** to CON of **5.2%, largest** since **1945**
* **15%** swing in **working** class voters - class dealignment
* **20%** more **young women** voters supported CON.
44
Case Study: **1979** Election
Thatcher's policies and focuses
* Focused on the **economic incapability** of **Labour** Gov previously.
* The lack of **control** over **unions**
* Right to buy **council housing**
* Policies to lower **inflation**
45
1992 election result
What was the fallout?
* Kinnock (L) lost to Major and then resigned.
* Taken over by John Smith (Very left wing and didnt want to change much)
* Blair came in in 1994 and wanted to attract more middle class voters so created **'New Labour'**
46
What happened that created wide economic distrust in the Conservative party? Early 90s
* **1992 - Black Wednesday**
* There had been a **recession** that begun in the 1980s
* The collapse in the pound sterling caused by George Soros shorting the currency forced **Britain to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism** (ERM).
47
Case Study: **1997** Election
What was the result and why?
* **Landslide** victory for Blair
* The conservatives suffered internal divisions, poor leadership and failed to seem relevant to contemporary society.
* Voters felt they had not dealt with the 1990s financial crisis well
* Blair had a strong and modern campaign, which appealed to middle class voters.
48
Case Study: **1997** Election
Final results in % and majority
* _Labour_ - 43% and **179 seat** majority
* _Tories_ - **30.7**% vote
* **Lowest share** of the Vote for Con since **1832**.
* Labour won a **14% swing in the middle class** group since 1992.
49
Case Study: **1997** Election
Age voting
* Labour achieved *more votes* across *all age groups* than the conservative party.
* Highest percentage coming from 18-24s.
* Especially in **18-24 women** with **_53_**% of them supporting Labour and only **_24_**% tories, big for the time
* Conservatives lost **16** points in the **35-54** age group, their **largest loss.** (economy concerned)
50
Case Study: **1997** Election
Ethnicity voting
* **70**% of **all non white** voters voted for _labour_
* **18**% voted for **_conservatives_**
* _Labour_ gained **66**% of **Asian** Votes and **82**% of **Black** votes.
51
Case Study: **1997** Election
Employment Status
* **45%** of those in **employment** voted for Labour
* As did **64%** of **unemployed** people.
52
Case Study: **1997** Election
Governing competence of CON
* Major **narrowly** **won** the **1992** election and immidetely lost the trust of the electorate on the **handling of the economy (**BW 1992)
* Major character becoming **increasingly disliked** especially compared to Blair
* Many ministers **resigned with accusations of sleaze** (major also involved)
* Also allegations that the gov was involved in **illegal arms deals with Iraq**
53
Case Study: **1997** Election
Tony Blair ideals
* Blair took over after the sudden death of John Smith
* He brought new, youthful charisma as the **youngest PM since 1812.**
* He brought in a Third Way ideal of a ***"stakeholder society"***
* ***"Mondeo Man"*** - average man, appealing to everyone
54
Case Study: **1997** Election
Tony Blair policies
* **Amended Clause 4** of Labour Const so they **no longer** had a commitment to **nationalisation**.
* Promised **not to raise income tax**
* Took a **hard line on crime** which was usually a conservative area.
* Focused on **constitutional** **reform** eg devolution and HOL. (won lib dem voters)
* Abandoning links with trade **Unions** and **supporting** **businesses** instead
* Education is a big focus
55
Case Study: **1997** Election
Labour Campaign
* All the posters and campaign videos were **very relaxed and laid back**. Making him seem friendly.
* **Spice Girls endorsed Blair**
* **_Alistair Campbell_** "Spin Doctor" ran a disciplined campaign that focused on portraying Blair as **young and energetic**
* Blair had a **_presidential_** campaign which focused on his personality
* *_"Things can only get better"_* catchy song video
56
Case Study: **1997** Election
Labour and the Media
* Labour won the favour of **the sun,** who never usually support Labour but this time switched because Blair was friends with **Rupert Murdoch.**
* The Sun normally predict who will win the election, **but on this occasion its important to note they only swapped allegiance once Labour already had a commanding lead in the polls.** (not necessarily press)
* Sun ran the headline "It's the sun what won it"
* **Biggest increase of Labour voters came from Sun readers.**
57
Case Study: **1997** Election
What was interesting about this election?
* The economy was doing fine by then, and the opposition party weren't offering radical change - yet there was a huge swing in voters
* This may suggest it was a **media** election and that Blair's personality and use of media benefited him hugely compared to the Conservatives.
58
Case Study: **1997** Election
What were the problems for the Conservative campaign?
* Martin Bell (journalist) stood as anti sleaze candidate against Neil Hamilton who resigned amid a "Cash for questions" scandal
* Referendum Party took a lot of the Brexit voters away from the Conservative party as they were so divided over EU.
* Major was **uncharasmatic** and their demon eyes poster misjudged the mood of the nation
59
Case Study: **2017** Election
What was the context of the 2017 election?
* **June 2016** - UK voted to **leave in EU** election and Cameron resigned
* May took office in July 2016
* May then ruled out a snap election from September through to March
* **May 2017 -** May then calls **snap shock election**. At this point May was **20 points ahead in the polls** and some **believed** she could even win a **200 seat majority.**
60
Case Study: **2017** Election
4 assumptions that the 2017 election confirmed
* **Class** and **partisan** **dealignment** **continued** as the electorate voted more imaginatively than ever before
* The way in which the campaign was fought was highly significant in determining the result
* The **television** debates were **influential** - indicating that **party** **leadership** is highly **important**.
* **Social** **media** would have a **huge** **role** to **play** in elections from now on
61
Case Study: **2017** Election
The campaign faults
Tories
* Andrew Rawnsley (political journalist) ***"Conservatives ran the worst campaign in living memory"***
* They assumed the electorate would not trust Corbyn's Labour
* **Dementia Tax**
* **Uninspiring** Manifesto
* May's *"strong and stable leadership"* was not portrayed
* May didn't show up for TV debate
62
Case Study: **2017** Election
What was the dementia tax?
* Proposal to make wealtheir pensioners pay a share of the cost of NHS homecare was labelled Dementia tax and massively stalled the campaign.
* the following U turn on the policy made May look dithering and inconsistent
63
Case Study: **2017** Election
May Character
* May was meant to be a powerful leader
* but this 'strength' turned sour when she gave a series of l**acklustre, scripted, emotionless** speeches
* This is when she lived up to names of "**Maybot**"
* She failed to turn up to televised leader debates and Caroline Lucas said *"the first rule of leadership is to show up"*
64
Case Study: **2017** Election
One problem with the conservative campaign
* They had to try and make it a **leader centric campaign** and move away from the traditional conservative label.
* This is because they had to **appeal to UKIP voters** who are traditionally **working class.**
* However, this failed to win other votes as May was so **uncharasmatic.**
65
Case Study: **2017** Election
Labour Manifesto and policies
* Abolish **tuition** fees
* Increase spending on the **police**
* **_Not increasing taxes_** for the **95**% of the population earning less than **£80,000** per year.
* Very **_anti-austerity_** message which was warmly received.
* **Catch All Brexit policy** - get a better deal and then put it to the people
66
Case Study: **2017** Election
Labour Campaign
Corbyn character
* Hugely sucsesful in speaking to large groups, especially young people
* ***"For the many not the few"***
* He drew equal with May in the polls after she had such a huge lead
* Did interview with grime star **JME** in NME which mobilised y**oung voters.**
* Corbyn - **public, mass events compared to May's invite only events repeated the events of Major**.
67
Case Study: **2017** Election
Media
* Declining role of the traditional press in elections
* The **Sun and daily mail** and others all **attacked** Corbyn but yet he still managed to increase his vote share by **9.6%**
* Even tried to associate him and others with IRA
* ***"Dont chuck Britain in the Cor-bin***"
68
Case Study: **2017** Election
Issue voting
* May thought people would focus on the **valence** issues such as competence of the Labour party
* But they actually focused on **salient** issues such as **Brexit**
* **Tories** received **working class** votes that wanted **Brexit** done
* While **Labour** gained more **AB** pro **EU** voters
69
Case Study: **2017** Election
Final results and trends
* Resulted in a **Minority** Gov and Con had to form **Confidence and supply agreement** with the **DUP**.
* While **Labour** achieved a **9.6%** swing, but **Conservatives** still increased their vote share by **5.5%** (biggest % of pop vote since 1983)
* **Labour** won in the places that voted **remain** while **Conservatives** won in **leave** areas.
70
Case Study: **2017** Election
Age and education
* High youth turnout. **24%** increase in **Labour** votes in **18-24**
* Among those with **GCSEs** or less the tories beat labour by **22**% and in those with **High** **qualifications** **Labour led by 17%**
71
Case Study: **2017** Election
UKIP
* Lost Farage as a leader so collapsed
* **Over half of UKIPs 2015 voters switched to the tories**
* 18% to Labour
* and
* 18% remained with UKIP.
72
Media Bias
* There are strict laws governing TV/ radio political broadcasting
* It must be **fair** and **appropriate**
* It must **finish by the time when the polling booths open**
* Broadcasters must **wait until polls close** to publish the opinion polls
* **Newspapers are under no such obligation.**
73
Opinion polls controversial
3 EGs
**1992** - most polls suggested that support for Labour was growing at the expense of the Conservatives and this may have encouraged a people to turnout for the Conservatives that wouldn’t have otherwise.
**2015** - polls predicted a close race between Labour and the Conservatives which enabled the Conservatives to warn against the possibility of an unstable Labour SNP coalition.
**2017** - most opinion polls gave the Conservatives a large majority which may have reduced the urgency for which some Conservatives or led others to believe they could protest and vote Lib dem for remain reasons, not realising how close the election truly was.
74
TV Debates
* Become much more popular
* Started since 2010, and watched by **10 million viewers**
* May didnt show in 2017 and it damaged campaign
* 2019 - Johnson didnt show to all leaders debate and was replaced by **Ice scultpure** at Climate change debate
* 2019 - 2 Johnson v Corbyn debates, polls split 52/48 J/C, neither looked too good
* Now some think its more influential than papers
75
Social media
* Elections are being increasingly influenced by social media.
* In **2017** Labour activists used **Facebook**, **Twitter**, **hashtags** and whatsapps to spread labours message across the Internet.
* Corbyn had three times more followers than Theresa May
* The **vilification** of Corbyn in the press **mattered less** in this election showing a **move towards social media and away from traditional press**
* Labour spent **money** on polling day promoting **#forthemany.**
* they made **corbynism** feel like a **community**
76
Reasons why the Media wins elections
* Public gain most their info from media - **very few read manifestos**
* Public are swayed by **persuasive headlines**
* **Politicians** are conscious of **media image**
* Winning in **2015** and **2017** was **supported** by majority of **press**
* Power of media continues to grow
* Social media allows for **echo chambers**
77
Reasons why the media dont win elections
* Public make up their mind from many **combined media sources**
* People will normally have **an opinion that is reinforced by the press** they read but it was still their **opinion beforehand**
* **parties** and **media** are **blurred** with social media
* Media **follows and reflects** publics **views** rather than **creates them,** people's views influenced by their friends and bubble etc.
78
The Canary
* Online blog that was one of the most popular news sources on facebook in the early weeks of the campaign
* It drew in numbers comparable with the BBC and national papers.
* The editor is a big supporter of Corbyn
* Shows influence of social media in recent elections
79
What was the context of the 2019 GE?
* Boris Johnson, who had become prime minister in July, was unable to get his brexit deal through Parliament as he headed a minority government in a weak position
* Originally, he intended that the UK should leave the EU on 31 October 2019
* Tensions had already been heightened in September by the attempt to prorogue Parliament for a month, a move which was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court.
* Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act he could not call a general election without the support of two-thirds of MPs.
* Mistrust of the prime minister was such that he failed three times MPs also passed the ‘Benn Act’, which prevented Johnson from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.
* The prime minister finally secured his election by introducing an ‘Early Parliamentary General Election Bill’, which circumvented the FTPA and required only a simple majority to pass
* Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had hitherto blocked an early poll, now supported it. Arguably he had little choice once the SNP and Liberal Democrats had signalled their acceptance. His judgement was questioned by some members of his own party, who feared that they were being forced to fight an election in unfavourable circumstance. More than 100 Labour MPs absented themselves from the vote or abstained.
80
What were the mainfestos of CON and LAB like in the 2019 GE?
* The Conservatives focused on their pledge to ‘get Brexit done’, with Johnson repeating insistently that his deal was ‘oven-ready’there were also promises of increased spending on the NHS, police and infrastructure. Thatcherite tax-cutting priorities were set aside in order to reassure voters that this was a ‘One Nation’ party which believed in public services.
* The Labour manifesto was the most radical in a generation. It comprised tax rises for those on higher incomes, extensive renationalisation of privatised services and ambitious plans for investment in public services, designed to end the ‘decade of austerity’.
81
What were the 2019 campaigns like generally?
The three main UK party leaders ran ‘**presidential**’ campaigns focused on themselves. They journeyed across the country in ‘battle buses’ to events where they were greeted by rapturous audiences of party loyalists.
82
What was the Conservatives 2019 campaign like?
* The Conservatives ran a tightly disciplined campaign.
* All candidates were required to pledge loyalty to the prime minister’s Brexit plan. Most of the unreconciled rebels did not stand
* Johnson played it safe during the campaign, which came as a surprise given his normally ebullient nature.
* Towards the end of the campaign Johnson mishandled an encounter with a journalist who tried to make him look at photos of a four- year-old boy sleeping on a hospital floor.
83
What was the Labour 2019 campaign like?
* Johnson’s decision to hammer home ‘get Brexit done’ contrasted sharply with Labour’s lack of clarity on the issue. Corbyn’s eventual declaration that he would remain neutral in a second referendum did not inspire people on either side of the argument.
* In the final stages of the campaign, worried that it had pivoted too far towards the Remain position, Labour switched its focus to Leave-supporting seats in its northern heartlands, but without success.
* The Labour leader was widely regarded as a negative factor for his party, with many candidates reportedly forced to listen to harsh criticism of him when canvassing.
* Corbyn’s failure to deal with anti-Semitism on the Labour left, for which he was slow to apologise, was a continuous source of embarrassment for the party.
84
How was social media used in the 2019 election?
* All parties used social media to send out targeted messages, but the Conservatives proved more effective in doing so than in the 2017 contest, when they had been outpaced by Labour.
* They used focus groups and polling to reach voters whose political loyalties could be swayed. The party stepped up its Facebook advertising in marginal seats during the last week of the campaign. A stream of messages warned undecided voters that Corbyn could become prime minister with Liberal Democrat and SNP support, and that Johnson needed just nine more seats to deliver Brexit.
* There were also reports of arguably unscrupulous tactics, including the renaming of the Conservatives’ Twitter account as the more neutral- sounding ‘factcheckUK’, with the letters ‘from CCHQ’ in small print.
85
What was the results of the 2019 GE?
* CON gain 47 seats, LAB lose 69
* CON majority of 80
* LAB worst result since 1935
86
Why did Labour lose so badly?
* The loss of Labour’s so-called ‘red wall’ in the north. The Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area. Their gains included constituencies such as Blyth Valley – traditional manufacturing and mining towns, many of which had returned Labour MPs for up to a century
* This remarkable turn-around was partly explained by the fact that these seats had voted for Leave in 2016, and there was widespread disillusionment with Labour’s lack of clarity on Brexit
* Voters here were disappointed that Parliament had not delivered the result of the referendum, three-and-a-half years on.
* Conversely, Labour held on to most of its seats in London, a mainly pro-Remain area.
* There were other factors in play; A YouGov poll of Labour voters who deserted the party in 2019 indicated that Corbyn’s leadership was the main reason for 35 per cent of them, compared to 19 per cent who cited Brexit. Most respondents in this second category felt that he had not offered strong leadership on the issue.
* On crime and immigration, the London-based Labour leadership was out of touch with much of its northern grassroots. There is evidence in these areas of a longer-term process of disillusionment with Labour.
87
What does the 2019 election suggest about age in voting?
* According to analysis by YouGov, age was the most important determinant of voting. 56 per cent of those in the 18-to-24 age bracket voted Labour, compared to only 14 per cent of those aged 70 and over.
* For every ten years older a voter was, the chance of them voting Conservative increased by nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreased by eight points.
* Overall the voting patterns of men and women were very similar, except in the 18-to-24 group, where 28 per cent of men but only 15 per cent of women voted Conservative.
88
What does the 2019 election suggest about class in voting?
What is the clearer dividing line?
* The declining importance of class, already witnessed in 2017, was evident in 2019.
* Labour scored 33 per cent in both the ABC1 classes (middle-class ‘white collar’ occupations) and C2DEs (working-class ‘blue collar’ occupations).
* The Conservatives were ahead of Labour in all classes but scored more highly among C2DEs (48 per cent) than among ABC1s (43 per cent).
* Levels of **education** were a clearer dividing line than social class. The Conservatives outperformed Labour by 58 to 25 per cent among voters with the lowest level of educational qualification (GCSE or below) but amongst those with a university degree they trailed Labour by 29 to 43 per cent.
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What does the 2019 election suggest about issue and valence voting?
* Brexit was a salient issue in the 2019 election - The Conservatives were supported by 74 per cent of Leave voters but only 19 per cent of Remain voters.
* This links to a theme which has been increasingly central in modern elections: voters’ perceptions of the various parties’ governing competence.
