Voting behaviour and the media. Flashcards
The 1979 general election.
Main features of the outcome:
- Labour’s representation went down by 62 and the Conservatives’ up by 50.
- The conservative majority was 43.
- No small parties won a significant number of seats.
- The Scottish National party lost 9 of their 11 seats in Scotland, reflecting a loss of interest in devolution at that time.
Main changes since the last election:
- The UK moved from a Labour government with no majority to a Conservative government with a comfortable majority.
- The first female prime minister was elected.
Main issues:
- There had been a wave of public sector strikes in 1978-79. People punished Labour for not controlling trade union power.
- The economy was in a poor state, in particular concerning inflation, though this had been falling. Labour became associated with high inflation.
- The extent to which the state should regulate and control industry as opposed to the operation of free markets was an issue.
Main influences on the outcome:
- Labour ran a poor election campaign, implying that the country should not elect a woman.
- Labour was not trusted on the economy.
- Labour was beginning to appear disunited between its left wing and its moderates.
- The conservative promise to expand home ownership was popular.
- The growing size of the middle class and shrinking working class gave the Conservatives a natural advantage.
How was government affected by the outcome?:
- The UK moved from a period of indecisive, weak government with a tiny majority to a government with a working majority.
- It marked the beginning of 18 consecutive years of Conservative government.
- The bulk of the electorate moved towards a centrist or right-wing attitude to most issues.
The 1997 general election.
Main features of the election:
- It was a landslide victory for the Labour party under Blair.
- The liberal democrats made a breakthrough winning 46 seats at Westmister.
- The effects of the electoral system exaggerated the scale of Labour’s victory.
Main changes since the last election:
- The conservatives lost a total of 178 seats, Labour gained 145.
- The liberal democrats gained 28 seats.
Main issues:
- The 1990s had seen an economic recession for which the Conservatives were blamed.
- The NHS was considered to be in decline.
- Education funding and standards were falling.
- Crime was at high levels.
Main influences on the outcome:
- Blair was seen as as a charismatic, dynamic leader while John Major was viewed as dull and uninspiring.
- Blair appealed to the growing middle class.
- The electorate was weary of many years of Conservative rule and wanted a change.
- The media showed strong support for Labour.
How was government affected?
- The election marked the beginning of 13 years of labour rule.
Party manifestos and election campaigns.
The key factors in election campaigns which may affect the outcome of a general election include the following:
The manifestos:
- In 2017, the publication of the manifestos led to a narrowing of the gap in opinion polls between Labour and the Conservatives. However, normally manifestos make little impact.
Leadership debates on tv:
- In 2010, the impressive performance of Nick Clegg and the weak showing of Gordon Brown were influential on their parties’ fortunes.
The press:
- This may have contributed to Labour’s loss in 2015.
Favourable or unfavourable issues:
- Each party tends to concentrate on the issues on which it feels itself to be strong during the campaign. Thus they tend to cancel each other out. Evidence suggests issues reinforce voting intentions rather than changing them.
Class and voting.
The story of social class and voting is one of steady decline in its influence.
The influence of social and democratic factors.
Gender: There is virtually no difference in voting habits between men and women, though there is a slight tendency for women to favour Labour.
Age: This is a key factor. Older voters favour the conservatives very significantly. Young voters have a Labour bias.
Ethnicity: This is also significant, although there are signs that it is weakening as a factor. A further trend is for more established immigrants to move to the Conservative party.
Class: Class used to be the most important determinant of voting behaviour but it is becoming much less influential.
Region: There are wide regional variations in voting patterns. Scotland is the moat remarkable currently, with the SNP enjoying complete dominance. The south of England is solidly conservative. UKIP made inroads into Labour’s former dominance of northern England. This leads to what are known as electoral heartlands, where only one party wins any seats.
Analysis of voting behaviour.
Partisanship and voting attachment:
- Class dealignment has occured. This means that the old strong links between the working class and Labour and the middle class and the Conservatives have weakned. As a result, people display weaker party attachments.
- The parties have tended to adopt centrist policies which could attract a wider range of voter support.
- There is growing support for smaller parties such as UKIP.
- There is a general widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of parties at Westminster.
- Party membership has fallen dramatically.
Valence.
Valence is one of the key factors in voting behaviour.It stands in opposition to positional voting where voters are looking at specific policies or groups. Valence refers to the following attitudes towards the parties at elections:
- Governing competency: Does the party appear to be decisive?
- Economic competence: How well did the party manage the economy last time it was in power?
Issue voting.
Issue voting is similiar to rational choice, but here voters are concentrating on one single issue or a group of related issues.
- Instrumental voting: This is what the voter thinks will be best in their own interests.
- Expressive voting: When a voter thinks not of themselves but of the good of the whole community.
Turnout.
The level of turnout can influence the outcome of an election. This is because different demographic grroups usually demonstrate different turnout levels. This is usually to the advantage of the Conservative party. The young who tend to be more left wing, vote in much smaller numbers than over-65s who are more likely to be Conservatives. The same is true of low-income groups, who mostly support Labour but vote in smaller numbers. Higher-income groups turn out in larger numbers and tend to be conservative. The main reason for low turnout are disillusion and apathy.
Party leaders and voting behaviour.
The quality of the party leaders is an issue which stands alone in voting behaviour. The typical qualities that votets like to support are listed below:
- Record in office.
- Compassion.
- Decisiveness.
- Strong leadership.
- Clear vision.
- Communication skills.
- Populist appeal.
The role and impact of the media in elections, bias and persuasion.
The key issues concerning press influence include the following:
- Newspapers may contribute to setting the agenda - identifying certain issues which may appear most significant and so favour some parties more than others. This often applies to the economy.
- Newspapers may influence people concerning the image of leaders.
- The press may influence people’s image of the parties in general which may affect some floating voters.
- Even though newspapers may have little infuence over voters, some politicians believe they do and so they can be influenced to change their policies to please newspaper proprietors.
- Newspapers in the UK are free so their bias is inevitable.
- The evidence suggests that newspaper opinion, as expressed in their comment pages reinforcing existing political attitudes but rarely changes them.
- The broadcast media are not permitted to show any political bias so there is no evidence that they influence political opinion.
- Social media are active in election campaigns but their influence cannot be estimated as so many different opinions are expressed on social media.
Opinion polls and elections.
The problems concerning opinion polls include a number of features.
- The media and political parties pay a great deal of attention to opinion polls.
